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Patrick Chovanec

@prchovanec

Private sector economist. Former professor at China's Tsinghua University and Columbia SIPA. Author of “Cleared for the Option: A Year Learning to Fly”, now available on Amazon. Visit me at http://patrickchovanec.com

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Latest posts by Patrick Chovanec @prchovanec

The attack shut down Azerbaijan's airspace for about 12 hours, halting a major alternative to normal air routes from Europe to Asia.

07.03.2026 05:48 👍 39 🔁 3 💬 0 📌 0
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Why did Iran fling drones at Azerbaijan, and particularly its airport? Here's one explanation: to cause further havoc in international air travel, to put pressure on everyone to put pressure on the US and Israel to back off for a while.

07.03.2026 05:47 👍 66 🔁 17 💬 5 📌 0
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CBS obtained video of the DHS killing of an unarmed man in Texas that DHS concealed for nearly a year, which clearly contradicts claims that he violently rammed anyone. He is shot with his brake lights on, car not moving or barely moving. Another DHS crime.

07.03.2026 03:03 👍 4450 🔁 2340 💬 122 📌 137
Post image The Cathedral of St. Peter and St. Paul

The Cathedral of St. Peter and St. Paul

The Museum of Art

The Museum of Art

March 6, 1926: Ku Klux Klansmen conduct a series of nine cross burnings in Philadelphia, including in front of the Catholic cathedral and the Museum of Art. One of the crosses, packed with gunpowder and oil-soaked rags, explodes and badly burns a policeman and a 12-year-old boy.

06.03.2026 18:24 👍 22 🔁 6 💬 1 📌 0

But you can see how psyched it makes Pete feel. Like he wants to go out and lead some push-ups.

07.03.2026 04:05 👍 58 🔁 4 💬 2 📌 0

This is not a message that is going to divide Iranians against their government. It's going to unite them against the country trying to "kill them all".

07.03.2026 04:04 👍 93 🔁 17 💬 3 📌 0

Technically the quote was "Kill them all, God will know his own."

07.03.2026 04:03 👍 33 🔁 1 💬 2 📌 0

"Kill them all, let God sort them out".
As a fan of the Crusades, Hegseth ought to know who said that and when, but probably doesn't.

07.03.2026 04:02 👍 97 🔁 17 💬 7 📌 0

For an non-partisan take, you should read the comments from businesses across multiple sectors yourself.

07.03.2026 03:59 👍 2 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

Consistently, respondents to the ISM surveys in both manufacturing and services have identified tariffs as a major headwind to an otherwise positive business outlook. This is not new, it's been a constant theme for the past year.

07.03.2026 03:58 👍 5 🔁 2 💬 1 📌 0
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Some firms responding to the February ISM Services survey reported that they have adapted to tariffs; others say they are still struggling. “The business climate remains solid overall, but significant unknown risks from further potential tariff actions ... are dampening business investment.”

07.03.2026 03:57 👍 2 🔁 1 💬 1 📌 0
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New orders jumped +5.5 points in February to 58.6, indicating the expansionary trend should continue. Every sub-index is in positive territory (>50). Price pressure cooled a bit in services, down -3.6. points to a still elevated 63.0.

07.03.2026 03:53 👍 3 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
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The ISM Services Index rose +2.3 points in February to 56.1, which is solid expansion territory and the highest reading since July 2022.

07.03.2026 03:51 👍 2 🔁 1 💬 1 📌 0
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Manufacturer comments in response to the ISM survey in February indicated that tariffs have raised costs in multiple industries, particularly in metals, and they complain it is having a serious detrimental effect on demand and profitability. Worth a read:

07.03.2026 03:49 👍 6 🔁 5 💬 1 📌 0
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New orders, production, and backlogs all remained in expansion from January. However, employment and customer inventories are still in contraction. Most significantly, prices jumped an astonishing +11.5 points to 70.5, indicating a sudden increase in inflationary price pressure across sectors.

07.03.2026 03:45 👍 12 🔁 5 💬 1 📌 0
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The ISM Manufacturing Index fell -0.2 points in February to 52.4, but that still marks the 2nd straight month of expansion following a sustained downturn.

07.03.2026 03:43 👍 13 🔁 5 💬 1 📌 0

The Trump Administration acted like questioning the complete and total efficacy of the strikes last year on Iran's nuclear facilities was an act of unpatriotic treason, when it was actually the only sober, sensible response to a complex and challenging problem.

06.03.2026 21:55 👍 53 🔁 8 💬 0 📌 0

One reason you don't exaggerate your success (e.g., "North Korea no longer poses a nuclear threat!") is that it totally undermines your credibility later when you have to face the same issue again.

06.03.2026 21:53 👍 101 🔁 17 💬 5 📌 2
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Wars Often Lose Public Support Over Time. Trump Started This One Without Much.

Americans skipped the rally-around-the-president stage this time. JFK gained 13 points after Cuban Missile Crisis, LBJ 8 after bombing Hanoi, GHW Bush 18 during Gulf War, GW Bush 8 after Saddam captured, Obama 11 after OBL killed. Trump gained 0 since Iran. www.nytimes.com/2026/03/06/u...

06.03.2026 21:45 👍 931 🔁 270 💬 69 📌 25

Meanwhile, Venezuela makes some minor concessions and otherwise does its own thing.

06.03.2026 21:37 👍 44 🔁 5 💬 1 📌 0
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US private credit defaults hit record 9.2% in 2025, Fitch says The default rate among U.S. corporate borrowers of private credit rose to a record 9.2% in 2025, ​according to a report Friday by credit rating agency ‌Fitch Ratings.

US private credit defaults hit record 9.2% in 2025, Fitch says reut.rs/4b4JWXm

06.03.2026 21:35 👍 285 🔁 123 💬 11 📌 30

In other words, they’re not going to surrender, much less unconditionally. Trump will just announced that they have, when the mood strikes him.

06.03.2026 21:34 👍 441 🔁 101 💬 36 📌 1

It could potentially matter a lot, if it helps them get a timely fix on US warships via satellite.

06.03.2026 18:12 👍 70 🔁 16 💬 8 📌 1

JFC as CEO of Anthropic one'd think he understands how LLM works.

(Unless of course they have created a separate stack to complement LLM without telling the world.)

06.03.2026 18:09 👍 27 🔁 4 💬 1 📌 1
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always loved this book

06.03.2026 18:10 👍 212 🔁 35 💬 11 📌 2

The only diplomatic off-ramp I see now is Iran offering Trump a casino concession in downtown Teheran.

06.03.2026 18:07 👍 80 🔁 20 💬 6 📌 1

The self-harm that the US military (which I served in as an officer) is doing to its domestic reputation is unprecedented since Vietnam. It’s acting like the gunman for a mafia boss.

06.03.2026 18:04 👍 76 🔁 20 💬 9 📌 0

ALERT: Rep. Joyce Beatty (D-OH) files motion asking court to block Trump's closure and demolition of the Kennedy Center

Beatty is ex-officio member of Kennedy Center Board of Trustees

Beatty: "Emergency relief is necessary to prevent irreparable harm"

tinyurl.com/mpzm4d2s

06.03.2026 17:49 👍 1580 🔁 543 💬 38 📌 25
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Americans are being policed with military-grade weapons. This has to stop | Hank Johnson and Michael Shank Predator drones and armored personnel carriers have become commonplace in US cities. Congress has the power to fix this

"America’s main streets are a warzone. This should trouble every American, irrespective of their political leaning. Life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness are near impossible to realize when our streets are policed with military weapons."

This has to stop!

No pay wall.

06.03.2026 15:15 👍 54 🔁 26 💬 0 📌 4
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Russia is helping Iran to target US military assets in Middle East Tehran using intelligence shared by Moscow to launch retaliatory drone and missile attacks

Russia is helping Iran to target US military assets in Middle East ft.trib.al/gAtT8mJ

06.03.2026 18:00 👍 54 🔁 31 💬 7 📌 3