what do these numbers mean?

Question. At expense of what?

Here's the tread by @prune602.bsky.social

Inside the Kurdish Resistance Fighters Attacking Iran YouTube video by Civ Div

Okay, I was bit wrong on their footing. But this guy knows more.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=yvxi...

So at any point in time they just can stop doing it and reverse back up.

You can lower like 100bpp below inflation to increase money flow (with side effects). That is what we are seeing now with Central Bank lowering by 50bpp per session as a "gesture of goodwill". So they are balancing on knifes edge. Yes this increases lending amount at expense of increased inflation.

If you lower CB rate (in our example inflation 15% and rate to have 5%), that means you're giving out free money. Borrow $100 and pay $90 back.

Thank you dear ChatGPT

Central bank rate.

It already functions properly now. It's that it is being used as a scapegoat for problems. By huge margin is inflation.

Changing this one to "acceptable level" is rather delusional idea of a fix on so many levels that my mind cannot comprehend all the side effects.

If you suspend the rule, pros - less side effects to worry about, cons - you lose that stabilization mechanism that is not really working anyway.

Oh, and yes.

So, if you raise the threshold - you devalue RUB, you need to have enough of RUB in NWF for constant buying. Which you technically could top up by REPO-OFZ scheme. But this is convoluted idea. And risks with spiraling out of control.

And I'll be starting topics on what actions could ru govt take and what pros/cons each approach has.

Right now it is draining NWF (suspended for now), but upper the threshold and govt will have to buy foreign currencies. This move increases demand with same supply, so the outcome is devaluation of RUB.

This is not the desired effect to have. Thus the logical solution is to suspend the rule.

There's talk about changing it yadda yadda.

The proper action would be to suspend this rule until further notice. Currently that rule does more harm than good.

Fine-tuning threshold to fit certain oil price level does not solve fundamental issue of having stable economy.

RU budget rule.

This is interesting law designed to stabilize RU economy. So, oil above certain threshold -> govt buys currency, lower -> govt sells it. It is designed to counteract impact of oil price on _stable_ economy to keep certain level of currency exchange rate.

Not confirmed.

And look at the map, Turkey is certainly not in favor for Kurds to gain power. The only footing they have is on corner in Syria. So going to Iran meaning carving that part of Iraq as well. And again, they are interested in their historical lands only.

I believe that picture is from Canada. See - snow

This is distance traveled. Hmm, how can you roll mileage better on your car - city or highway?

Strange that avg drop between 2023 and 2025 is .. 5.8%. So report is saying that drop (again) is 5.8%. Again still drop in coal is the huge one and probably number of wagons should be looked into.

Okay, let's disregard this and let's take on this picture.

RU railway loadings.

Unfortunately due lack of time did not do calculations yet. The original idea is to exclude coal and retroactively calculate historical numbers and maybe group by quarters. Frankly the report does not inspire confidence.

ipem.ru/content/pogr...

Especially when in comes to RU economy as well. Hence I'm interested in those global variables.

For example Chindia more dependent on RU flows.

I don't believe in all that talk about boots on ground. Yeah, right. Tehran in 2-3 days.

Still believe most likely outcome is some sort of common agreement of stalemate. Few exchanges back and forth and ceasefire. Like previous time.

Other scenario is still probable and it changes global calculus.

I have a question. Where are the firefighters? I mean initial blast took out like apartment or two.

The original PDF is here:

www.forecast.ru/Forecast/202...

And the descriptive part:

www.forecast.ru/_ARCHIVE/Mon...

I guess it's game time.

Obligatory.

Told ya. I guess it's a pattern now. Saturday morning when markets are closed. And don't expect much.

Stop the war? That's some crazy talk here.

On serious note, battling with shadow economy is hard. And when you raise taxes, it only increases. Hence the original question. The more taxes you raise, the less tax income, the greater share of shadow economy. At some point it make government redundant.

You have a good point. This definitely cannot be ruled out, although world became much more complicated the more we know about it. This idea is a recipe for abuse from borrowers I guess. So whatever floats the boat.

How would you suggest finding more revenue? Asking for a friend.

I hope the answer is some sort of "raise taxes" :D

Why on earth would CBR want those loans? How they are going to manage them? I would assume they will let those loans be extended on time and stay on bank balances while CBR props up banks.