Mark McGeoghegan

40% of voters could change who they support...?

@markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social implies that almost half of Scottish voters could be persuaded to change their ballot ahead of the election.

Updated Scotland poll tracker, following @ipsosinscotland.bsky.social and Survation polls this week.

SNP 5 short of a majority.

Pro-independence majority of 15.

Seats (+/- 2021)

SNP: 60 (-4)
Ref: 20 (+20)
Lab: 18 (-4)
Grn: 13 (+5)
Con: 10 (-21)
LD: 8 (+4)
Alba: 0 (-)

1/2

I doubt it. If the electoral system is to change it'll require the opposition parties to come together around a new system, and there are too many veto points across the five of them for them to reach agreement.

I can't see the SNP swinging in behind a new system that'll cost them ~15 seats.

To build on this, here are the Gallagher Indices for Scottish Parliament elections, from highest to lowest, including the projected index for 2026. Higher = more disproportional.

2026 is projected to be more than twice as disproportional than the avg of the last six Scottish Parliament elections.

No, both.

This would still be the case if list-only parties stood in every seat and won the national vote share suggested by national polling. Comfortably.

"The most disproportional election post devolution"

@markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social from Ipsos, suggests that the first-past-the post element of the Holyrood electoral system could result in a disproportionate outcome.

Sorry, pro-independence majority of *17*.

Constituency vote (+/- 2021):

SNP: 35.1% (-12.6)
Ref: 17.9% (+17.9)
Lab: 17.3% (-4.2)
Con: 10% (-11.9)
LD: 9.4% (+2.4)
Grn: 8.1% (+6.8)

List vote (+/- 2021):

SNP: 28.5% (-11.9)
Ref: 17.6% (+17.4)
Lab: 16.8% (-1.1)
Grn: 12.3% (+4.2)
Con: 11.4% (-12.1)
LD: 9.6% (+4.6)
Alba: 2% (+0.3)

2/2

Updated Scotland poll tracker, following @ipsosinscotland.bsky.social and Survation polls this week.

SNP 5 short of a majority.

Pro-independence majority of 15.

Seats (+/- 2021)

SNP: 60 (-4)
Ref: 20 (+20)
Lab: 18 (-4)
Grn: 13 (+5)
Con: 10 (-21)
LD: 8 (+4)
Alba: 0 (-)

1/2

Scottish Conservative candidate lists were published today; nobody formally or informally deselected relative to 2021 results, but of the 22 sitting MSPs standing for re-election, the current BBS projection is for a whopping 13 of them to lose their seats, and no new blood to join the group.

You're taking a joke way too seriously.

This is your brain on pat leave

Jeremy Vine comparing Beckham to Beethoven is the most English football media thing to ever occur.

The Boob Hypnotist is your most popular politician, Britain.

Just you think about that.

Andy Maciver gave me a gentle nudge on our increasingly disproportional electoral system on this, and I decided to take a proper dive...

For some electoral system geekery you can listen below

🆕FRESH POLLING has the SNP comfortably winning the Scottish parliamentary election, with Labour in second place and the Greens in third.

Full discussion and analysis with @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social - Associate Advisory Director at Ipsos on today's podcast...

Streaming now.

The top issue that the Scottish public say will be very important to how they vote in May remains healthcare/the NHS (56%).

Compared to Ipsos’ previous poll in December, inflation/the rising cost of living is down 6 points, while immigration is down 5 points.

Crisis in the Middle East - Scotland Perspective and SNP Hold Firm in New Poll

Had a great time speaking to the guys @holyroodsources.bsky.social about our newest Scottish Parliament poll!

The Scottish public remain divided on Scottish independence with 51% likely to vote yes in an immediate referendum, and 49% saying they would vote no.

Table of results

Our projection on the latest @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social poll:

🎗️ SNP — 57
🌹 Lab — 20
🌳 Con — 11
🌱 GP — 17
🐤 LD — 9
➡️ Ref — 15

Make your own on: devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/

Crisis in the Middle East - Scotland Perspective and SNP Hold Firm in New Poll

Had a great time speaking to the guys @holyroodsources.bsky.social about our newest Scottish Parliament poll!

Map of projected seats. Constituencies are 63 SNP, 2 Conservative, 2 Labour, 5 Lib Dem, 1 Green, 0 Alba, 0 Reform. Regional list seats are 0 SNP, 7 Conservative, 16 Labour, 5 Lib Dem, 10 Green, 0 Alba, 18 Reform. Lead party per region is Central and Lothians West SNP, Edinburgh and Lothians East SNP, Glasgow SNP, Highlands and Islands SNP, Mid and Fife SNP, North East SNP, South SNP, West SNP. Gallagher Index is 15.3 - a lower index means a more proportional result.

Map of projected runners up and margins. Constituency runner ups are SNP 7, Conservative 11, Labour 34, Lib Dem 4, Green 4, Reform UK 13. In percentage terms, constituency margins of victory are 7 below 5, 14 between 5 and 10, 35 between 10 and 20, 17 above 20. Closest runner up for last list seat in each region is Central and Lothians West Reform UK, Edinburgh and Lothians East Reform UK, Glasgow Green, Highlands and Islands Green, Mid and Fife Conservative, North East Conservative, South Conservative, West Reform UK.

Ipsos 19-25 Feb seat projection (vs last poll / vs 2021 on new boundaries); AMS Ideal seats:

SNP ~ 60 (nc / -3); 38
Lab ~ 20 (+1 / -1); 25
Grn ~ 16 (-1 / +6); 22
RUK ~ 13 (-4 / +13); 18
Con ~ 10 (-1 / -21); 14
LD ~ 10 (+5 / +6); 12

(Projection caveats: ballotbox.scot/projections)

New Scottish Independence poll, Ipsos 19-25 Feb (changes vs 27 Nov - 3 Dec):

No ~ 42% (-1)
Yes ~ 43% (-4)
Don't Know ~ 13% (+4)

Excluding Don't Knows (/ vs 2014):
No ~ 49% (+1 / -6)
Yes ~ 51% (-1 / +6)

We have a new @ipsosinscotland.bsky.social poll out today with STV:

Constituency (+/- December 2025):

SNP: 36% (+1)
Lab: 20% (+4)
Ref: 16% (-2)
LD: 10% (+1)
Con: 9% (-2)
Grn: 7% (-2)

List (+/- December 2025):

SNP: 26% (-2)
Lab: 19% (+1)
Grn: 16% (-1)
Ref: 14% (-3)
Con: 11% (-1)
LD: 10% (+3)

Crucially, many voters are still willing to change their minds. Labour and SNP voters are particularly likely to switch to a (centre)-left party, rather than stick to their constitutional preference.

We have a new @ipsosinscotland.bsky.social poll out today with STV:

Constituency (+/- December 2025):

SNP: 36% (+1)
Lab: 20% (+4)
Ref: 16% (-2)
LD: 10% (+1)
Con: 9% (-2)
Grn: 7% (-2)

List (+/- December 2025):

SNP: 26% (-2)
Lab: 19% (+1)
Grn: 16% (-1)
Ref: 14% (-3)
Con: 11% (-1)
LD: 10% (+3)

New Scottish Parliament poll, Ipsos 19-25 Feb (vs 27 Nov - 3 Dec):

List:
SNP ~ 26% (-2)
Lab ~ 19% (+1)
Grn ~ 16% (-1)
RUK ~ 14% (-3)
Con ~ 11% (-1)
LD ~ 10% (+3)

Constituency:
SNP ~ 36% (+1)
Lab ~ 20% (+4)
RUK ~ 16% (-2)
LD ~ 10% (+1)
Con ~ 9% (-2)
Grn ~ 7% (-2)

news.stv.tv/politics/ref...