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Pia Raffler

@piaraffler

Political Science Assistant Prof @Harvard. PE of development, CP. Political accountability. Experiments. African politics

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11.10.2023
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Latest posts by Pia Raffler @piaraffler

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Look what I found in the mail today, just in time for blizzard reading. Massive congratulations, @melinaplatas.bsky.social! It’s a beauty

23.02.2026 17:34 πŸ‘ 4 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

ONLINE tomorrow: @guygrossman.bsky.social will present our new paper on the effects aid cuts for refugees. We follow 5400 households over 2 years and leverage a regression discontinuity design in Uganda. We find that self-reliance policies are not enough to mitigate the negative impact of cuts.

11.02.2026 16:42 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
It must be very hard to publish null results
Publication practices in the social sciences act as a filter that favors statistically significant results over null findings. While the problem of selection on significance (SoS) is well-known in theory, it has been difficult to measure its scope empirically, and it has been challenging to determine how selection varies across contexts. In this article, we use large language models to extract granular and validated data on about 100,000 articles published in over 150 political science journals from 2010 to 2024. We show that fewer than 2% of articles that rely on statistical methods report null-only findings in their abstracts, while over 90% of papers highlight significant results. To put these findings in perspective, we develop and calibrate a simple model of publication bias. Across a range of plausible assumptions, we find that statistically significant results are estimated to be one to two orders of magnitude more likely to enter the published record than null results. Leveraging metadata extracted from individual articles, we show that the pattern of strong SoS holds across subfields, journals, methods, and time periods. However, a few factors such as pre-registration and randomized experiments correlate with greater acceptance of null results. We conclude by discussing implications for the field and the potential of our new dataset for investigating other questions about political science.

It must be very hard to publish null results Publication practices in the social sciences act as a filter that favors statistically significant results over null findings. While the problem of selection on significance (SoS) is well-known in theory, it has been difficult to measure its scope empirically, and it has been challenging to determine how selection varies across contexts. In this article, we use large language models to extract granular and validated data on about 100,000 articles published in over 150 political science journals from 2010 to 2024. We show that fewer than 2% of articles that rely on statistical methods report null-only findings in their abstracts, while over 90% of papers highlight significant results. To put these findings in perspective, we develop and calibrate a simple model of publication bias. Across a range of plausible assumptions, we find that statistically significant results are estimated to be one to two orders of magnitude more likely to enter the published record than null results. Leveraging metadata extracted from individual articles, we show that the pattern of strong SoS holds across subfields, journals, methods, and time periods. However, a few factors such as pre-registration and randomized experiments correlate with greater acceptance of null results. We conclude by discussing implications for the field and the potential of our new dataset for investigating other questions about political science.

I have a new paper. We look at ~all stats articles in political science post-2010 & show that 94% have abstracts that claim to reject a null. Only 2% present only null results. This is hard to explain unless the research process has a filter that only lets rejections through.

11.02.2026 17:00 πŸ‘ 643 πŸ” 223 πŸ’¬ 30 πŸ“Œ 51
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Are female economists treated differently than males in academic seminars?

These authors wanted to know whether gender shapes how scholars are treated when presenting research.

So they built a massive dataset of 2,000+ economics seminars, job talks, and conference presentations from 2019–2023...

03.02.2026 20:54 πŸ‘ 412 πŸ” 190 πŸ’¬ 9 πŸ“Œ 39
Vintage black and white portrait of a young boy with short dark hair. He is wearing a dark jacket and turns his head towards the camera.

Vintage black and white portrait of a young boy with short dark hair. He is wearing a dark jacket and turns his head towards the camera.

27 January 1933 | A German Jewish boy, Lutz Ludwig GrΓΌnstein, was born in Berlin.

He was deported to #Auschwitz from the #Theresienstad ghetto on 9 October 1944. He was murdered in a gas chamber after selection.
---

Children at Auschwitz:
πŸ“– Lesson: https://lekcja.auschwitz.org/dzieci_EN/

27.01.2026 12:00 πŸ‘ 482 πŸ” 125 πŸ’¬ 19 πŸ“Œ 8
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SCHOLARSHIPS CSAE Scholarships

⏰Application Deadline Tomorrow (27 Jan 2026)

Are you an African national thinking of applying for graduate study in #economics at the University of Oxford to start in 2026?

Find out more & listen to advice from CSAE professors.πŸ‘‡ www.csae.ox.ac.uk/scholarships
#EconSky #funding #scholarships

26.01.2026 09:08 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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The old view of skilled emigration as a 'brain drain' has collapsed after a generation of research.

Skilled migrants cause innovation, technology transfer, and human capital investment in the countries they leave. The best summary is @mushfiq-econ.bsky.social et al.β€”>

doi.org/10.1126/scie...

18.12.2025 17:32 πŸ‘ 108 πŸ” 39 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 1

I am hiring a post-doctoral fellow (2 years) to work on all things political finance in Africa. There are no teaching obligations, and lots of opportunities for fieldwork. A PhD in Political Science is a requirement. Please spread the word! Happy to answer questions - send them to my LSE email.

17.12.2025 11:58 πŸ‘ 29 πŸ” 35 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 1

I sometimes teach in Providence. In the classroom where I most frequently teach, there's a section labeled for where students are supposed to go for active shooters. It is a cliche of a phrase, but I want to echo the Professor here and say: it does not have to be this way.

14.12.2025 00:06 πŸ‘ 124 πŸ” 30 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
Donate Blood Check your eligibility to donate blood, learn about the process and why blood matters, and enroll in a RIBC Donor Loyalty Rewards programs.

I am a student at Brown in communication with a friend at RIBC.

There is an urgent need for blood donations to support RI. Donations in NY, NJ, MN, NB, DE or NJ can help supply RI.

Spread the word.

www.ribc.org/donate-blood/

13.12.2025 23:54 πŸ‘ 1407 πŸ” 1294 πŸ’¬ 34 πŸ“Œ 82
Research Officer Research Officer, , <p style="background: white; margin: 0cm; text-align: center;"><em><span style="color: #333333;">LSE is committed to building a diverse, equitable and truly inclusive university</s...

🚨Jobs!🚨

3-year PostDoc positions (aka Research Officers) at @lsegovernment.bsky.social to work with me on the local consequences of border change. Please reach out for questions and apply by Jan 4th to join the team and department: I’d love to hear from you!

Job ad: jobs.lse.ac.uk/Vacancies/W/...

06.12.2025 15:35 πŸ‘ 65 πŸ” 58 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 6

If you use GMail, AI (Gemini) was turned on yesterday by default and now scans all of your content for machine learning. To turn off, go to Settings>General and scroll down. Uncheck the box for "Smart features."

There's other "Smart" add-ons as well, but that's the one that reads your content.

20.11.2025 17:32 πŸ‘ 10768 πŸ” 8015 πŸ’¬ 326 πŸ“Œ 787
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EPSS 2026 submissions FAQ - EPSS Submissions are coming in fast for Belfast 2026 and so are your questions about submissions. Here are answers to the most common questions: Where do I go to submit? For panel submission: https://app.oxfordabstracts.com/events/75765/symposia/create For paper submission: https://app.oxfordabstracts.com/stages/79266/submissions/new? How many papers can I submit? We put a constraint of max one presentation per person. This does …

Please share!: Last week to apply for @epssnet.bsky.social Belfast 2026

really good news is that there's been an amazing response to the call for papers already; now very excited for this meeting

⬇️ We put together a quick FAQ on Qs that have come up on submitting: epssnet.org/conferences/...

03.11.2025 10:49 πŸ‘ 26 πŸ” 22 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 6

In a digital world, talking to sensitive sources is nearly impossible without encryption. The EU’s #ChatControl plan is an attack on accountability journalism - and a gift to surveillance

04.10.2025 07:06 πŸ‘ 137 πŸ” 71 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Striking difference in trust in the World Bank & IMF between Africa & Asia (high trust) and the rest of the world (low trust)

www.rockefellerfoundation.org/reports/dema...

19.09.2025 16:00 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

@sophieehill.bsky.social doing the Lord's (statistics) work

10.09.2025 16:14 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

All of usβ€”including myselfβ€”should publish fewer but better papers.
And we should spend more of our time on scrutinizing existing work, so we know which claims can be trusted. But that's hard work with little recognition.
Thanks @sophieehill.bsky.social for doing it. Impressive πŸ•΅οΈβ€β™€οΈ work. Fun to read.

10.09.2025 14:38 πŸ‘ 17 πŸ” 6 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0
a snippet of a mini-comic, at top - straight line stretches from point A to B. Immediately below, same dot at A, then becomes a curving, meandering line that winds through the page and ends at a point with rays and a question mark emanating from it. Text reads: "Nothing can do this for you - that robs you of experience and conflates answers with learning. Rather, it's all the decisions you make along the way, the mistakes, struggles, and surprises! These pathways you create - this is learning.

a snippet of a mini-comic, at top - straight line stretches from point A to B. Immediately below, same dot at A, then becomes a curving, meandering line that winds through the page and ends at a point with rays and a question mark emanating from it. Text reads: "Nothing can do this for you - that robs you of experience and conflates answers with learning. Rather, it's all the decisions you make along the way, the mistakes, struggles, and surprises! These pathways you create - this is learning.

Pages from a mini comic

Pages from a mini comic

Pages from a mini comic

Pages from a mini comic

Pages from a mini comic

Pages from a mini comic

My drawn statement on Ai as standalone from my now finished minicomic as syllabus for new liberal studies class! As promised this is shareable, printable - all from my site, feel free to make use of it, cite me & let me know how it’s received. Share away all here! spinweaveandcut.com/fall-2025-sy...

20.08.2025 16:47 πŸ‘ 734 πŸ” 307 πŸ’¬ 45 πŸ“Œ 50

Congratulations, Alex!

03.09.2025 10:44 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Exciting new work by @rduartegonzalez.bsky.social (who is on the market!) & Co

24.08.2025 13:52 πŸ‘ 5 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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"Political brokers use social networks to identify & target reciprocal non-copartisans for vote buying. Parties recruit brokers central in networks to sway persuadable voters."

From @rduartegonzalez.bsky.social, Finan, @hlarreguy.bsky.social and Schechter:

www.restud.com/brokering-vo...

#Econsky

22.08.2025 13:44 πŸ‘ 13 πŸ” 6 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 1
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πŸ“£ REMINDER for Latin America’s PhD students: apply to the EGAP PhD Lab πŸ’₯

πŸ“ Lima, Oct 2–3
πŸ—“ Deadline: July 31
πŸ”— buff.ly/qAfb6xC

With support from:
GRADE Peru, @wyssacademy.bsky.social @uniandes.bsky.social

#PhD #LatAmResearch #EGAP2025

08.07.2025 12:17 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Researcher assumptions shape not just how experiments runβ€”but what questions we ask. Outlining best practices for designing context-aware lab experiments in non-Western settings, from Sara Lowes and @nathannunn.bsky.social https://www.nber.org/papers/w33981

07.07.2025 16:00 πŸ‘ 10 πŸ” 8 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 1
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Re-upping my advice about how to write a good title and abstract for an academic paper, appropriately called:

"How to Write a Title and Abstract"

Feel free to share this thread, which will focus on titles.

#EconSky #AcademicSky

11.06.2025 16:41 πŸ‘ 224 πŸ” 73 πŸ’¬ 10 πŸ“Œ 7
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Most Literature Reviews Miss the Point. Don’t Let Yours Critically Engaging Past Work to Confidently Shape Your Own

Most literature reviews miss the point.

Not because they’re sloppy.

But because they treat the literature like a box to tick.

In my latest Respect the Marble Post, I carve out a 6-step process to writing a meaningful lit review:

catherineeunicedevries.substack.com/p/most-liter...

🧡

24.06.2025 06:01 πŸ‘ 203 πŸ” 58 πŸ’¬ 10 πŸ“Œ 16

Version 2.0 of the National Elections Database is online! nationalelectionsdatabase.com
We cover presidential and parliamentary elections 1789–2023, extending the post-1945 data of Electoral Turnovers @reveconstudies.bsky.social (academic.oup.com/restud/advan...)
w/ Benjamin Marx and Vincent Rollet

05.06.2025 12:17 πŸ‘ 80 πŸ” 32 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Go Dr. Carvalho!!!!

05.06.2025 15:29 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Looking to work at the intersection of research and policy in development?

Friends of VoxDev are hiring for 4 important roles in the evidence-to-policy ecosystem.

Check them out below 🧡1/5

03.06.2025 10:11 πŸ‘ 5 πŸ” 5 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Work with my wonderful colleague @mamalik.bsky.social‬

28.05.2025 18:57 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0