✈️ Welbeck has a 1-in-7 chance of being on the England plane next summer.

He’s currently 36th most likely to make the 2026 World Cup squad (14%). That could rise if his form continues and he’s back in international contention.

17 players have >50%, just 9 >90%.

Who sneaks in?

🐐 Messi has signed a new deal at Inter Miami - keeping him until 2028, past his 40th birthday.

⚽ 1.01 goals + 🎯 0.57 assists per game = 1.58 goal contributions - the best in MLS history.

🇦🇷 Did Messi leave Europe too soon - or just in time to chase one more World Cup?

🔴 Sean Dyche’s arrival at Forest should feel familiar - at least in style.

⚽ Avg. 41% possession under Dyche (Nuno: 42%) → compact, structured play.
🧤 4.4 final-third recoveries per match (Nuno: 3.5) → more pressing.

Evolution, not revolution, for Forest.

📉 Liverpool have lost four in a row - and the numbers show why.

Their non-penalty xG per game has fallen from +1.2 to +0.3, the biggest drop in the Premier League.

⚽️ xG for ↓ 0.45
🧤 xG against ↑ 0.45

❓ Is this just a blip - or the start of something deeper?

❓ Should Rúben Amorim change formation?

📊 He’s used 3-4-3 in 98% of games - far above the PL average of 58%.

⚽ Only Keith Andrews has been less flexible (but from just 2 matches).

🔮 Will Amorim’s loyalty to 3-4-3 be a masterstroke or a hindrance in England?

❓ How balanced are PL squads?

🥅 Man Utd: 55% of value in forwards (+10% vs avg) but only 12% in midfield (-9%).
⚪ Fulham: 44% in defence, league-high.
⚒️ West Ham: Just 5% in strikers, lowest.
🔄 Bournemouth: Strength in wide attack.
🔴 Sunderland: Most balanced.

🏆 Title-winning PL squads average 2.58 years at their clubs (from Leicester’s 1.61 in 15/16 to Liverpool’s 3.69 in 24/25).

🔵 Man City’s current squad? 2.62 years - right in the sweet spot.

⚖️Stability vs renewal: City look balanced again.

❓Are Man Utd bad at selling?

💰They’ve made €560m in sales over 10 seasons - 36 clubs made more, 5 made double.

📊With €770m in revenue (5th globally), we’d expect closer to €850m.

⚖️That’s €290m in ‘lost sales’ - only 3 clubs worse. In the PSR era, smart selling is no longer optional.

The Premier League is getting younger 📉

Since 2021/22, the average age of signings has dropped by nearly 2 years.

At 23.9, it now leads the Big 5 leagues.

Clubs are doubling down on youth-making earlier bets and racing to secure future stars.

Transfer spend and winning: Do big fees really correlate with success? Chelsea have spent roughly £5m per Premier League point since their 2022 takeover, compared to just over £1m by Brentford since promotion

Wages are the best financial barometer of how a club will perform - but what of transfer fees?

Are they ever indicative of success?

It's complicated.

*Loved* doing this piece for @theathleticfc.bsky.social - built on brilliant research of @aurelnz96.bsky.social

www.nytimes.com/athletic/645...

A big ol' shout to Twenty First Group and @aurelnz96.bsky.social, who provided much of the data and plenty of insight on this one

This is the first of a couple of collaborative pieces this week

🔴 Ruben Amorim’s start at Man Utd has been rocky.

📈 The Red Devils now boast one of the league’s highest possession shares.

⚠️ Yet, only one team completes fewer passes into the final third.

⏳ An effective style takes ~12 months to implement. Results like last nights help provide patience.

🇪🇺The UEFA Champions League returns tonight for gameweek 7, first in its history.

Here are the best matches to watch:

🥇 PSG vs. Man City (highest overall quality)
🥈 Benfica vs. Barcelona
🥉 A. Madrid vs. Leverkusen (tightest matchup)

🔴 Arsenal scored another corner yesterday to make it over 30% of goal scoring chances now coming from corners. Premier league average is 13%…

🇪🇸 Barcelona scored as many goals as they had La Masia graduates (5️⃣) vs Real Madrid.

🥇Their academy has produced the highest value talent, ahead of Man City and Chelsea.

❓Can La Masia’s legacy help save Barça from financial woes?

🔴Man United had just a 1% chance of winning yesterday based on post-match xG.

📈 Signs of progress: Belief and team spirit have improved, and Amorim is settling on his best XI with fewer lineup changes. Stability is growing.

🔴 Nottingham’s European dream is alive:

📈 Top 4 chances: 27% (pre-season <1%)
📊 PPG: +1.05 improvement (5th best since 12/13 among > 1,000 teams). Only title winners like Leicester (15/16), Chelsea (16/17), B. Leverkusen (23/24) improved more.

📉 38% of strikers signed in January score zero goals in the second half of the season.

💰 Prices in this window are typically +17% higher than expected in an efficient market.

🧠 When risks are high and returns low, sometimes the smartest move is no move at all.