@mjamurphy
I'm an applied economist interested in how we get better at interacting with natural systems. You can find out more about my research at mjamurphy.com Personal account, only Scottish football takes guaranteed correct
"What has changed compared to previous oil crises and oil price scares - even the 2021-22 one - is how affordable the clean energy solutions needed to replace oil and gas imports are."
This is the KEY point made by @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social
There are Alternatives now. bsky.app/profile/70sb...
A codgerly cartoon avatar with a cane labeled "dad guy"
getting owned by the wean
weird that touching the stove leads to the cool zone
Guys the Polymarket twitter account is not a news source.
Time series plot depicting predicted Nino 3.4 region ocean temperature anomalies from the latest (Mar 2026) ECMWF ensemble. It depicts an extremely rapid rise in such temperatures, from modest negative anomalies to strong positive anomalies, by mid-summer 2026--indicative of a transition from weak-moderate La Nina conditions to moderate-strong El Nino conditions over just a few months.
Whew.
All signs are increasingly pointing to a significant, if not strong to very strong, El Niño event. I'll have more to say in coming weeks & months, but for now I'll just say that this is increasingly likely to become a major regional-to-global climate driver in 2026-2027.
Energy transition the hard way
Oil is approaching $90
Not now shadow banking sector
spurs fans watching news to escape sport
Fuels, now Food
"The Middle East is one of the world's largest fertiliser producers, while the Strait of Hormuz is a crucial shipping route for exports. About 35% of global urea exports pass through the waterway... the route also handles 45 per cent of global sulphur"
www.ft.com/content/7efe...
This new @clientearth.bsky.social lawsuit could set important precedent on whether retirement plan managers have a fiduciary duty to address climate risk. Cushman & Wakefield's small cap fund disclaims any effort to analyze climate risk, ignoring how climate change threatens portfolio value.
"Hello" is about Nick, pass it on
I think we can all collectively agree it was Adele.
I think there should be a time when people are allowed to be in a space and a time when cars are allowed to be in a space and that those times should not be the same.
Jumping on Rich's aquaculture post to highlight our new paper on aquaculture, out now in Aquaculture!
It's a rapidly growing sector, meaning proper management of biosecurity & antimicrobial use will be increasingly important for human & animal health. To do that we need a lot more data.
#OneHealth
QATARENERGY ANNOUNCES "FORCE MAJEURE" DUE TO UNFORESEEN CIRCUMSTANCES, AFFECTING OPERATIONS AND SUPPLY CHAINS..
A great point about changing your perspective to see things clearly
very good summary thread
follow me for more causal inference tips
fun fact: since land allocation choices affect precipitation and timing of development research is plausibly exogenous, you can use your RCT to instrument for rainfall
that's the bad kind. the good kind doesn't have golf.
celebrating top six finish (sobs)
Tyler Cowen claims Bilal & Känzig's QJE paper should be retracted
The basis for this is an LLM summary of the paper which incorrectly claims the authors use RCP 8.5 as a 'business as usual' scenario.
Only problem? They don't do this. In fact they provide a citation on why RCP 8.5 is inappropriate.
Nothing here is investment advice but if you're thinking about the SpaceX/Twitter/Grok IPO at a planned $1.75 trillion valuation, I've got some thoughts on how you can model the shape and depth of the first settlement on Mars
prices not longer align with perceptions 😁
Thoughts with you & your family.
"Powerful AI can statically help human decision-makers, but can harm collective knowledge building... it can lead to what we call “knowledge collapse” whereby in the long-run all human knowledge is ultimately destroyed.”
economics.mit.edu/sites/defaul...
I'd estimate ~20% of cars stop for the trail crossing I use to bike home. Bring on the robots.
way to generate those synergies
