Ed Gareth Poole 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿🏳️‍🌈

Many are saying this!

Plaid open 14 point lead over Reform UK in our January 2026 Senedd voting intention

Plaid Cymru: 37% (+7 from 4-10 Sep 2025)
Reform UK: 23% (-6)
Green: 13% (+7)
Conservative: 10% (-1)
Labour: 10% (-4)
Lib Dem: 5% (-1)
Other: 2% (-2)

yougov.co.uk/politics/art...

Our latest pod is in the feeds and on YouTube.

In the first of our explainer pods, @lauramcallister30.bsky.social is joined by @edgarethpoole.bsky.social of @walesgovernance.bsky.social as we grapple with the national finances, how we have the system we do and how it could be better. #Senedd26

Senedd (Welsh Parliament) Voting Intention:

PLC: 30% (+3)
RFM: 29% (=)
LAB: 12% (-6)
CON: 12% (+1)
GRN: 9% (+2)
LDM: 7% (=)

Via @findoutnow.bsky.social, 16 Dec - 4 Jan.
Changes w/ 5-16 Jun 2025.

‘They misjudged Caerphilly’: how the Reform juggernaut backfired in Welsh byelection It was assumed that Reform would sweep all before it – but locals rejected the party’s campaign of ‘lies and hate’

‘They misjudged Caerphilly’: how the Reform juggernaut backfired in Welsh byelection

‘They misjudged Caerphilly’: how the Reform juggernaut backfired in Welsh byelection It was assumed that Reform would sweep all before it – but locals rejected the party’s campaign of ‘lies and hate’

Caerffili - featuring our very own @jaclarner.bsky.social!

Blwyddyn newydd dda!

www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

‘They misjudged Caerphilly’: how the Reform juggernaut backfired in Welsh byelection It was assumed that Reform would sweep all before it – but locals rejected the party’s campaign of ‘lies and hate’

“Caerphilly isn’t some post-industrial wasteland passively absorbing whatever political winds blow from across the border – it has its own political traditions” - Dr @jaclarner.bsky.social
www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

Frozen 2: Tax Freezes, the 2-Child Limit (and what the 2025 Autumn Budget means for Wales) Showcasing current research, comments and analysis on the law, politics, history, culture, government and political economy of Wales from the Wales Governance Centre.

As if by the magic of Disney, those live-action bean counters at @walesgovernance.bsky.social have produced their analysis of yesterday's UK Govt budget and its implications for Wales #budget2025 #devolution #senedd

Frozen 2: Tax Freezes, the 2-Child Limit (and what the 2025 Autumn Budget means for Wales) Showcasing current research, comments and analysis on the law, politics, history, culture, government and political economy of Wales from the Wales Governance Centre.

🚨 NEW: 'FROZEN 2': 🧊 Here's the Wales Fiscal Analysis team's first breakdown on what the 2025 Autumn Budget means for Wales

🚨NEWYDD: Beth mae Cyllideb y Hydref 2025 yn ei olygu i Gymru? Dyma ddadansoddiad cyntaf o'r newidiadau sydd ar y ffordd

blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...

Women in Wales are being jailed more often Research has been carried out by a team at Cardiff University

NEWYDD - Adroddiad gan @robdjones.bsky.social yn dadansoddi'r data diweddaraf ar garchardai a charchariad yng Nghymru 👇

NEW - Report from Dr Robert Jones analyses the latest data on prisons and imprisonment in Wales 👇 #Wales #Cymru #Senedd26
www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-n...

New blog

Cracks in the Stonehenge of Welsh Politics: Caerphilly and Labour’s Future

Read @nyedavies.bsky.social on why the result in Caerphilly should act as a wake-up call to Welsh Labour, despite many in the party having warned against reading too much into the defeat

Read more: edin.ac/4949g0m

The 2024 UK General Election in Wales That Labour emerged victorious from the 2024 UK General Election in Wales must count among the least surprising political outcomes imaginable. It has, afte

NEWYDD - @jaclarner.bsky.social a minnau ar Etholiad 2024 yng Nghymru

NEW - Jac Larner and myself on the 2024 UK GE in 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿

2024 UK General Election in Wales url: academic.oup.com/pa/article-a...

Interesting read from @walesgovernance.bsky.social’s @lauramcallister30.bsky.social on the Caerphilly by-election, the intergovernmental & intra-party fault lines and pressures within Labour, and the road to next Spring’s Senedd election

#senedd #devolution

Labour braces for defeat in Caerphilly by-election Governing party faces potential loss of Senedd control amid Reform and Plaid Cymru surge in Welsh heartlands

Coverage in @financialtimes.com of the Caerphilly Senedd by-election, featuring analysis from the Enron of Welsh political statistics, and friend of the gnomes of Zurich, @walesgovernance.bsky.social’s @jaclarner.bsky.social #senedd #devolution

Those bean counters/abacus fetishists at
@walesgovernance.bsky.social have done it again - a super speedy assessment of yesterday’s initial/provisional/potential/theoretical/that would be an economical matter/outline draft Welsh Govt budget #senedd #devolution

‘Neutral’ or ‘Neutered’? Analysing the 2026-27 Welsh Government Outline Draft Budget Showcasing current research, comments and analysis on the law, politics, history, culture, government and political economy of Wales from the Wales Governance Centre.

NEWYDD: Dadansoddi Cyllideb Ddrafft Amlinellol Llywodraeth Cymru 2026-27 gan tîm ymchwil Dadansoddi Cyllid Cymru👇

NEW: Analysing the 2026-27 Welsh Government Outline Draft Budget by the Wales Fiscal Analysis team 👇
#Wales #Cymru #Senedd26

blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...

Our new BARN Cymru poll run with @itvcymruwales.bsky.social and @yougov.co.uk has landed 📈 #Senedd26 #Wales #Cymru

A write up of today's poll featuring analysis from @walesgovernance.bsky.social's @jaclarner.bsky.social can be found here www.itv.com/news/wales/2... #senedd #devolution

A... remarkable new @walesgovernance.bsky.social ITV Wales @yougov.co.uk poll of Welsh voting intentions for the next Senedd election (changes since May)

- Plaid 30% (-)
- Reform 29% (+4)
- Labour 14% (-4)
- Cons 11% (-2)
- Lib Dems 6% (-1)
- Green 6% (+1)
- Other 4% (+2)

#Senedd #devolution

We Need to Talk About Council Tax: The Regressive Welsh Way of Raising Taxes Showcasing current research, comments and analysis on the law, politics, history, culture, government and political economy of Wales from the Wales Governance Centre.

NEWYDD: Adroddiad byr gan y tîm Dadansoddi Cyllid Cymru ar y Dreth Gyngor yn Nghymru a’r achos brys dros diwygio.

NEW: Short report by the Wales Fiscal Analys team about rising Council Tax rates in Wales and the urgent case for reform. 👇
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...

Council tax payers squeezed more in Wales than in England and Scotland Martin Shipton The Welsh Government’s failure to reform Council Tax has put the people of Wales at a serious disadvantage compared with those in England and Scotland, according to new analysis release...

The Welsh Government’s failure to reform Council Tax has put the people of Wales at a serious disadvantage compared with those in England and Scotland, according to new analysis released today ✍️ Martin Shipton

NEWYDDION MAWR (i mi os neb arall!)

Ar ôl i bob copi o'r gwreiddiol gael eu gwerthu mae @gwasgprifcymru.bsky.social wedi ailgyhoeddi fy llyfr am Blaid Cymru ar gyfer canmlwyddiant (swyddogol!) y blaid a hynny mewn clawr newydd ysblennydd.

Ar gael ar faes @eisteddfod.cymru etc.

AMDANI BOBL!

The Flemish village dedicated to remembering fallen Welsh soldiers Luke James, Langemark Amid a Welsh-language recruitment drive devised by David Lloyd George, William John Howells from Carmarthenshire was among the first to enlist in the army at the outbreak of Worl...

On the first Monday of every month, residents of a small village in Flanders hold a ceremony of remembrance for Welsh soldiers who died in WWI

Tonight is the 200th ceremony. Their quiet dedication to ensuring our fallen are never forgotten is remarkable

nation.cymru/feature/the-...

Os yn byw yng Nghymru neu hefo'r diddordeb lleol yn y wlad yna mae'n RHAID DARLLEN hwn >>>

ESSENTIAL READING for anyone in Wales or with the slightest interest in our country >>>

Faster than a speeding rail replacement bus, the resident bean counters at @walesgovernance.bsky.social have provided their, at times quite frank, analysis on the spending review and Wales #devolution #senedd #spendingreview

Spending Review 2025 – the implications for Wales Showcasing current research, comments and analysis on the law, politics, history, culture, government and political economy of Wales from the Wales Governance Centre.

🚨 NEWYDD: Dadansoddiad llawn o beth fydd Adolygiad Gwariant ddoe yn ei olygu i Gymru. 💷

🚨 NEW: Full analysis of what yesterday's Spending Review will mean for Wales. 💷

blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...

I'm so shocked and very sad that Claire O'Shea has died. I really hoped she'd have had more time after her diagnosis. At every political event or in any pub she was always the first to bound over with lovely friendly chat. She played a big role in Wales and would've had a huge future too. Gutted.

Over last year I've been building a Senedd Election Simulator tool. It gives a useful (I hope!) visual explainer of how the new election system turns votes into seats.

🧵 on some of what it can do below:

jaclarner.github.io/senedd_ethol...

Spring Statement 2025 – some implications for Wales Showcasing current research, comments and analysis on the law, politics, history, culture, government and political economy of Wales from the Wales Governance Centre.

🚨 NEWYDD 🚨: Ymateb Dadansoddiad Cyllid Cymru i Ddatganiad Gwanwyn y Canghellor - beth fydd ei effaith yng Nghymru? 💷 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿

🚨 OUT NOW 🚨: Wales Fiscal Analysis's reaction to the Chancellor's Spring Statement - what will be its impact in Wales? 💷 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿

>> blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...