Some very stormy charts continue to be shown for Friday by the global models - there remains great uncertainty on exact positioning and potential intensity of the winds. Location will matter on areas at greatest risk of strongest of the winds.
Eyes peeled on the models!
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
VALID: Tomorrow, 26th September
More info: www.instagram.com/p/DAW0QSdiBLE/
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
VALID: Today
Interactive map: ukwxupdates.org
More info: www.instagram.com/p/DALV3XLClzZ/
[UPDATE 1] Thunderstorms are expected to develop again through this afternoon, some of which may be locally strong.
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
VALID: Tomorrow, 20th September
Interactive map: ukwxupdates.org
More info: www.instagram.com/p/DAGfQ18C8pw/
[UPDATE 1] A trough moving through tomorrow afternoon, with embedded instability, will allow the development of thundery showers and thunderstorms.
A sunshine and shower kind of day again - less windy today so could fly the drone up and catch this passing heavy shower ☔️
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
VALID: Tomorrow, 6th September
Interactive map: ukwxupdates.org
More info: www.instagram.com/p/C_iMn87C-Lp/
[UPDATE 1] Through early tomorrow morning, with an unstable air continuing to be present, this is likely to bring a further risk of thunderstorms.
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
VALID: Tomorrow, 1st September
Interactive map: ukwxupdates.org
More info: www.instagram.com/p/C_WCbEaij84/
[UPDATE 1] Significant uncertainty remains on thunderstorm development, if any, through tomorrow afternoon.
Meteorological summer ends tomorrow, and what a rather uneventful summer it's been in terms of weather for me! The only real things I will take away from this summer's weather is end of July heat, thunderstorms on 1st August and Storm Lilian.
Perhaps a little less uncertainty now.
ECM OP and its ensembles remain rather keen on a disturbance to be stuck and move over the UK and to our W/SW
GFS differs, but there are about 17/30 of its ensembles suggesting a scenario more akin of the ECMWF.
ECMWF ensembles largely supportive of ECM OP.
A decent weekend coming up! Temperatures generally around 18-22°C. SE looks to be more prone to cloud this time around, but plenty of dry weather in store.
Might need to watch the possibility of something thundery through Sunday in the SE.
Significant discrepancies arise just 5 days out with how this weakness plays out, as undoubtedly, the positioning of the resulting disturbance (or the 'green blob of doom' as I like to call it) will matter on how warm it gets.
High pressure beginning to build in today, what looks to be a rather warm and sunny weekend!
However.. as I mentioned a couple days ago, that weakness in between the initial build of pressure and a rebuild of the Azores high needed watching, which continues to be modeled.
All that build of high pressure just for us to sit under the 'green blob' of doom thanks to a weakness in the ridging. 🧐
One of many possible outcomes as we go into this weekend and start of next week.
Please be aware that currently the weather
It is a different disturbance that has developed courtesy of an active jet after Ernesto's passage this morning. The remnants of Ernesto have been largely consumed by the larger more dominant low to the east of Iceland, while Lilian is a discreet intensifying area of low pressure.
#StormLilian located just to the west of Ireland at the moment
Possible rainfall totals over the next 72 hours ☔️
With #StormLilian being named, that brings this storm season's storm count to 12, beating 2015/16's 11 to become the most active storm season so far.
Additionally, Lilian is the 5th named storm in August and the 2nd latest named storm on record, just beaten by Francis (2020) named on 24th August.
ChatGPT does not mess around 🫢
#Ernesto remains a hurricane at a relatively high latitude of 43.8°N (similar latitude to just off the northern coast of Spain).
Going to be a windy one tomorrow afternoon through the majority of the country. Widespread heavy showers in the NW, some, potentially a bit thundery.
Weather we so love is back ☔️
Wildfires from Canada making for a murky sunset here in the UK. Cheeky shot of an airplane on the right of course!
The jet stream behind Ernesto's passage will become quite enhanced - while not a washout, could be a rather showery and breezy period of weather through 22nd-26th.
Unlike the remnants of hurricane Debby which allowed some amplification of the high leading to a period of warmer/hotter weather, the remnants of hurricane #Ernesto look to enhance the Atlantic influence after its passage.
A small risk of some thundery downpours around the Home Counties tomorrow - UKV showing a somewhat greater extent of thundery showers.
Could be quite a wet night for a few places tonight within this area, varied model outputs, but below is the UKV for 4am. Some quite heavy rain mixed in with that. ☔️
Perseids and the aurora last night here in Herne Bay.
0100 BST, 0142 BST and 0352 BST.
Lightning strikes over the past 32 hours. ⚡️
Over 20000 lightning strikes!
From left to right.
1. Convective rain associated with the cold front
2. Trough likely to become fairly active and bring a risk of thunderstorms into Scotland
3. Model failure to forecast such extensive shower development. Risk of thunderstorms with all of this; locally large hail possible.
