Ah, yes, the invaluable wisdom of the markets.
04.03.2026 12:00
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Ah, yes, the invaluable wisdom of the markets.
I’ve heard it’s possible to win by losing but I’m not sure that’s what happened here
Will tariffs replace the income tax? Not likely.
The first in my new podcast series, History Is Taxing.
www.buzzsprout.com/2593214/epis...
I mean, seems unsurprising.
Seems bad
libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/02/who-...
Show logo for new podcast, "History Is Taxing"
Excited to share a new podcast I’m launching with my @taxnotes.com colleague Robert Goulder: “History Is Taxing!”
In each episode, we'll you give you the backstory on a major tax issue—from tariffs to taxpayer privacy to IRS reform.
Follow the show at taxnotes.co/historypodcast
So excited to be part of this new Tax Notes podcast. Coming soon!
Mamdani, Trump, and FDR: What that Oval Office photo misses about Roosevelt and his war on wealth
www.taxnotes.com/featured-ana...
When you live in such a tiny historiographical niche, can’t miss the chance to promote your 15 year old book.
Thanks, Kevin.
At the risk of some self-promotion…
amzn.to/4aoBmUt
Seems ironic/appropriate/illuminating that the GAO page explaining the Antideficiency Act and its role in government shutdowns is itself a victim of the government shutdown.
RIP to Dick “Deficits Don’t Matter” Cheney
As a matter of economics, still dubious. As a matter of politics, obviously and demonstrably true —so far.
Exactly. That whole article is full of dubious characterizations and half-facts. Really terrible.
Politico: “gas prices have fallen to levels not seen in decades.”
Really? I’d like to see the data behind this claim.
apple.news/AYXYDcb5tT3W...
I think this is probably wrong. As I argued here: www.taxnotes.com/tax-history-...
A careful study of every populist episode since 1900 finds catastrophic consequences, which play out slowly.
On average, incomes fall behind by nearly 15% over 15 years.
For the U.S., this is a cost of about $13k per person per year. Over a lifetime, that's million bucks.
today I am loving the UN Geneva Archives platform which hosts the complete League of Nations archives, digitised, entirely free
some archive digitisation programs are very clunky & hard to use, this is immaculate & has an incredibly user friendly interface + excellent metadata
I have a similar reaction to AI used for non-math functions. In history, for instance, it’s great for summarizing arguments and evidence — as long as the accuracy and reliability of those summaries aren’t important.
Super useful, for sure. Turns all of us from writers into fact checkers.
History suggests that tariff revenue won’t be so hard to quit.
So much for foreigners paying tariffs. If they did PPI would be falling. Wholesale prices up 3.3% from a year ago & 3.7% in the core. The temperature is definitely rising in the core. This implies a hot PCE reading lies ahead.
A ChatGPT fail for the historians out there
I think the word “finalized” might be part of the problem here.
Ronald Reagan: “A creative, competitive America is the answer to a changing world, not trade wars that would close doors, create greater barriers, and destroy millions of jobs...We should always remember: Protectionism is destructionism.”
www.forbes.com/sites/taxnot...
Ronald Reagan Would Have Hated Trump’s Tariffs
www.taxnotes.com/featured-ana...
The New York Times told us the Democrats lost the last election because people hate inflation, but now they are telling us that they can't score political points by promising to bring prices down by getting rid of the Trump tariffs substack.com/home/post/p-...
A good point. And pretty much the same argument that made income taxes popular in the late 19th and early 20th century.
Did anyone seriously think that corporate America would just eat the tariffs forever? That's not how companies work. (Or tariffs, FWIW.)
www.nytimes.com/2025/08/02/b...
They were hard to quit in the late 19th/early 20th century too. And yet they managed. (They were that unpopular and ultimately inadequate too)
