@mikesmitka
I'm a mostly retired economist with background in Japan, China and the global auto industry. I have a substack at smitka.substack.com and post occasional articles at SeekingAlpha. I've spent 8 years in Asia, and read Japanese and Chinese.
Just back from the Philippines, the same is true there – drive thrus at McD, Jollibee and Starbucks in Manila and Davao. In addition 7-11s have a few parking spots...and parking is otherwise scarce.
I focus on LF participation. Huge changes over the past 50 years, fewer men / more women working, the end of the "M" in women's participation by age, and more participation by older Americans. However, there's no significant change over the past 12 months.
smitka.substack.com/p/february-2...
Check out my new substack! You don’t have to resort to the peculiarities of China’s political economy to explain why their auto industry has excess capacity.
open.substack.com/pub/smitka/p...
This is the first of several posts on things I learned (or was stimulated to rethink) from the 32nd Annual Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Auto Industry Symposium, held at their Detroit Branch. Thanks to Kristin Dziczek and her colleagues for organizing it.
open.substack.com/pub/smitka/p...
Here's a new substack article, extending an interview I did last week for NBC in Hong Kong on potential Ford F-150 sales to Japan. smitka.substack.com/p/pickups-fo...
I visited a decade back, an Industry Studies Association conference – several members of the MIT Intl Motor Vehicle Project ended up as founding members. Anyway, useable public transport, the Powells bookstore – and hats, reflecting generally drizzly weather...I wear hats, multiple stores!
Check out my new substack article! I don’t know whether the subtitle is visible, but the content is about agrarian reform in China, it's not an abstract discussion of the philosophy of science.
open.substack.com/pub/smitka/p...
Software Defined Vehicles: Damned if you Don't, but Damned if you do
open.substack.com/pub/smitka/p...
I've posted a bunch of graphs on substack, updating ones I set up in my teaching days with data through August 2025. Then back to work on a substack article on the sources of Chinese economic growth, which is not the naive "markets" story most economists tell. open.substack.com/pub/smitka/p...
I just published a new substack, as an analytic exercise prior to analyzing BYD for a new SeekingAlpha article. More once that's up.
open.substack.com/pub/smitka/p...
I just checked Amazon to get the proper citation, and found a lot of books that looked relevant. Anyway, years back I read Wm Bogart, Don't Call it Sprawl (2006), which (among many arguments) impressed me with its emphasis that road expansion amplifies sprawl without ending traffic jams.
And the optics, literally, of making it harder to judge distance at night...for me I-81 in the Shenandoah Valley is the relevant piece of road, with one of the highest densities of semis anywhere.
As per the title of my latest substack article, the decline of the US industry continues. I'm en route back from a month in Asia, and will post on the Chinese and Japanese auto industries in the coming weeks.
smitka.substack.com/p/three-stri...
SeekingAlpha just published my latest article, I present lots of data. The title says it all, I don't look at the US but I do provide Europe data through 2025Q1.
seekingalpha.com/article/4787...
A dramatic ascent by new players – in Jan '20 BYD was nothing, now it's THE player. Through joint ventures, policy supported firms owned by central (FAW, Dongfeng) and municipal govts (BAIC, SAIC, GAW, Changan). Failures!
The Ascent of China's Private Car Firms open.substack.com/pub/smitka/p...
Just a head's up that I have a short substack post following up on my article on how tariffs will affect used car prices. That in fact is already happening, referencing a New York Times story.
open.substack.com/pub/smitka/p...
Opening a new plant is challenging at the best of times, you have to line up a lot of ducks, and they all have to fall in the right sequence. This isn't the best of times. For more on how tough it is, see my latest substack.
smitka.substack.com/p/reshoring-...
See my new substack on the impact of tariffs on used car prices. In 2009 we had a "cash for clunkers" program. Now we have a de facto Clunkers for Cash program, as consumers burn through cash to keep aging cars on the road.
smitka.substack.com/p/clunkers-f...
I've forgotten about posting to Blue Sky.
In any case, I just published a new substack article on the auto market in China. (I also have a recent article on Tesla in China at SeekingAlpha, behind a paywall.) I hope you find it informative! open.substack.com/pub/smitka/p...
Ah, John just emailed me your full name and affiliation. A bunch of his students have changed jobs in the past couple months, either out of the area or time conflicts. Hard times.
Figures!
Nice. Sending to my son, who teaches iaido, kendo and jodo at stauntonkendo.com. His equipment takes up 1.5 rooms of our house...
Need to get my son to join, maybe Bluesky will help him publicize regional kendo, iaido and jodo activities. He's off today to sell 2 of his extra swords...
My latest substack is on Chinese industrial policy for the auto industry. China's EVs lead, and large cash subsidies were crucial. But the wrong firms are winning: the big state-owned automotive enterprises aren't doing well, instead private firms are the winners. See smitka.substack.com