Counterpoint: if you’re already at GS and then get majority of the street to hate you for the crime of being too noticeable and good looking, you’ll probably end up just fine even if it won’t be along a conventional path
“The DFC facility will provide a total of $20bn reinsurance at any given point, but that amount could rise over time, said an agency official.
The DFC said it had identified US insurance companies to partner with on the programme.”
yet russian prod stayed within a 1mmbbl band; 120 crude was European subsidy provided to India et al buying discounted supply
I can’t help to think that “we are a next exporter” / dominance psychology has contributed to the cavalier attitude of trump re energy mkts.
110 next week
120 3rd wk March
150 shaheds still flying around the gulf by early April
Something like that
This is the extent of my long oil position
Yea. I’m a long term person so all of this is a bit noise for me still - just feels like if we’re at 95 Brent today, it will already be 110-120 by end of next week if shaheds are still flying and trump tweeting unchanged by then
to get an incremental 1mmbbl, you need to add say 1.3k incr. wells (Avg prod 750bbl/d) Current rig count is ~550 and you’re talking about incremental prod here.
All just back of envelope stuff here
Only have so many rigs being able to ramp up so many wells in a short period of time. You’d think US could push 1-2mmbbl/d within 6 months but not more?
I guess NG even with rising LNG exports will keep US ex liquids cost manageable but crude/gas at pump will absolutely be mostly in line with global experience, ie world of pain?
Which is why this all sort of feels like it needs to be fixed in next 10 days. I just don’t know how we can mess up all middle eastern energy all at once like that
WTI/Brent spread is like 2 bucks right now. Not sure even at $100 that frackers can replace whats at hand in the timeline that matters (say 3-6months) in the max pain experience
tbf “marketing issue“ is sort of assured with any product offered to retail that’s more complex than a vanguard broad market etf
Do you mean loss of regime control over armed factions within Iran?
a very slight reminiscence to intial Covid period when there was this tension between “this can’t not be really bad“ and “no way really bad things actually happen”
Our setup: one of each
for sure... there's no need to "save" rows ever, you can use as many as you want.
anyway thanks for revisiting long forgotten trauma of getting models audited by big4 during deal process
very few people / shops are taught good modelling methodology (beyond stuff like color your inputs) and thus complexity is mistaken for skill by junior guys. I've always liked "rule of thumb": formula should not be longer than your thumb (or maybe max formula bar)
It’s sort of insane how much airspace is closed right now and also how dependent everyone has gotten on ME3 airlines to connect Asia with Europe (and Americas increasingly)
the median outcome may very much be that this is all sort of resolving by end of next week but its the really bad outcomes re energy that no longer seem that far out on the likelihood curve. Like P25 being month+ shut down has big macro impacts
Doesn’t look like it impacts the Asia/Europe routes
it’s just such tremendous volumes on the upstream side to deal with too re: Ras Laffan disruption...
You’re still sitting on 9 figure worth of CH4 cargo idk idk I wouldn’t lol
LNG is liquified NG which would be the kind you’re thinking of re gas leak explosions. In its liquified state, it doesn’t contain oxygen hence limited potential for explosion/fire but then this stuff can turn into gas/mix with oxygen…
it’s always been a combination of can you please confirm that this person with very common name is not in fact a 19yr old Russian war criminal or one of 93 narco hits in latam for me with those
Welcome. If they go ahead, we will all enjoy the S-1 that I’m sure is currently being drafted by a rather tortured group of lawyers & co
S-1 is still public during roadshow but not during the SEC review period prior to that. Same as was done for WeWork.
finance.yahoo.com/news/wework-...
“only” 50bn offered into IPO (<3% mcap) with a massive wave of secondary sales to follow will be something to watch…
Fairly standard process over past decade or so
Few years ago, LPs were telling infra PE that they they are struggling to make the case when they can get higher absolute returns with lower risk in PC (not much pause to reflect why/how)
