@bencenemeth
Senior Lecturer (Associate Professor) at the Defence Studies Department of King’s College London | Defence Cooperation, Defence Innovation, Defence Management | Author: ‘How to Achieve Defence Cooperation in Europe?’
How much does the specific administration in the White House matter for alliance resilience? @bencenemeth.bsky.social argues that leadership is a critical "situational factor," noting a sharp contrast in cooperation trends between recent presidencies. #Geopolitics #GrandStrategy #NATO
US Military Primacy and Alliance Resilience with Bence Nemeth | Horns of a Dilemma on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, YouTube, and Amazon Music
In 1956, the Suez Crisis revealed the limits of British power. Could a similar event hollow out the US alliance system today? Bence Nemeth — @bencenemeth.bsky.social — applies his "five factor theory of defense cooperation" to answer this critical question on our latest episode.
@bencenemeth.bsky.social warns that a failure to deter or defeat China in the Pacific would do more than damage credibility—it could fundamentally hollow out the logic of American leadership.
tnsr.org/2025/12/how-...
#Alliances #IndoPacific #Strategy
"What the example of Suez reveals is that it is not the scale of the military engagement itself that is critical, but the way in which a crisis reshapes allied perceptions of American reliability, capacity, and strategic will." Quote from "How a US “Suez Moment” Could Hollow the US Alliance System" by Bence Nemeth
It doesn't take a massive war to break an alliance system—just a crisis to shatter the illusion of power.
@bencenemeth.bsky.social's article uses the 1956 Suez analogue to examine how a setback in the Indo-Pacific could force a brutal recalibration in allied capitals. #GrandStrategy #NatSec
Is the US approaching a “Suez moment” in the Indo-Pacific? The military balance with China is narrowing, and a public exposure of capability shortfalls could shatter alliance confidence.
In our latest article, Bence Nemeth (@bencenemeth.bsky.social) explores whether the US alliance system would hollow out or adapt in the face of a major setback. tnsr.org/2025/12/how-...
Dr @bencenemeth.bsky.social highlights a marked shift in perceptions of the Chinese military. Once seen as large but outdated, it is now “either reached or is nearing military parity” with the US in key areas, marking a “dramatic shift.”
🔗Read more: bit.ly/4n6i61p
#ChinaMilitary #IndoPacific
How can Europe balance urgent defence needs with complex cooperation?
@bencenemeth.bsky.social argues that time, not funding, is the key constraint, suggesting frontline states to boost national capabilities first and then integrate them into NATO and the EU.
Explore his insights:
bit.ly/45CM47t
Congratulations to Dr @bencenemeth.bsky.social
@NATO has featured his co-authored research paper in its #StrategicForesight manual. A fantastic example of how academic research from @KingsCollegeLon is shaping real-world #DefencePolicy.
Full story 👉 bit.ly/43yxY4m
#OurDividedPlanet
Congratulations to Dr @bencenemeth.bsky.social
@NATO has featured his co-authored research paper in its #StrategicForesight manual. A fantastic example of how academic research from @KingsCollegeLon is shaping real-world #DefencePolicy.
Full story 👉 bit.ly/43yxY4m
#OurDividedPlanet
A new NATO handbook advising how to carry out strategic foresight activities has featured Dr @bencenemeth.bsky.social's research as a key case study.
Read more about how Dr Nemeth's work is helping to train alliance members for future planning 👇
#OurDividedPlanet
www.kcl.ac.uk/news/how-a-k...
US peace talks hit setbacks after Zelenskyy refused to recognise Russia’s control over Crimea. Dr @bencenemeth.bsky.social describes it a “significant downgrading” of negotiations.
“The US is not positioning itself as a neutral mediator,” adds Dr Németh.
Read more:
bit.ly/3Gqun0E
With key envoys pull out, can the US still lead peace efforts if it’s no longer seen as neutral?
"This is not just about diplomacy fatigue. It also signals a hard pivot: The US is not positioning itself as a neutral mediator." - Dr @bencenemeth.bsky.social
Read:
bit.ly/3Gqun0E
Putting a European in place as the leader of Nato forces might seem like an easy option, but there are several major issues.
What does the US-South Korea shipbuilding deal mean for naval power?
"The US Navy will benefit from increased availability of ships...it could accelerate the growth of its fleet. This can help Washington maintain its global maritime dominance." - Dr @bencenemeth.bsky.social
Read:
bit.ly/42D9FTI
"Instead of building forces for a range of potential scenarios across multiple theaters, allies are being asked to focus primarily on fulfilling roles earmarked to them under the operational plans."
www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-res...
I think 2 months ago this would be seen as a disaster. An American SACEUR is direct link to POTUS and thus the bomb. Seen as critical for credibility of US extended deterrence. But now, I think worst case is an uncommitted US remaining in NATO as is but blocking Euros from organizing themselves. 1/
New Geopolitical Europe Pulse is out!
Europe alone?
Compilation of articles, feat. @maxbergmann.bsky.social, @lscazzieri.bsky.social, @bencenemeth.bsky.social, and @rafaelloss.bsky.social:
geopoliticaleurope.substack.com/p/geopolitic...
"Without the United States as a steadfast ally, Europe faces a turbulent security environment where dangers can originate not only from Russia but also from the missteps of Western policies themselves." Just got quoted by The Sun: www.thesun.co.uk/news/3366763...
Without the USA as a steadfast ally, European nations are rethinking their security strategies, which bencenemeth.bsky.social of @dsdkings.bsky.social says offers opportunities as well as challenges.
▶️ www.kcl.ac.uk/a-new-geopol...
Also see his previous article on defending NATO without the US 🔽
In my RAND paper on defending NATO Eastern Flank without the US, I argued that we need 3 EUR DIV (45k troops) in the Baltics to generate credible deterrence. This highlights its difficulties, let alone doing it with a peacekeeping mission in Ukraine simultaneously.
kclpure.kcl.ac.uk/portal/en/pu...
No, I’m afraid we cannot do any of that effectively (let alone both at the same time). These are the thoughts I shared last year in a RAND paper on defending the Eastern Flank without American support:
kclpure.kcl.ac.uk/portal/en/pu...
Yes, but the current events change the relevance of the China challenge. While China is an industrial challenge, the rift with the US might pose such a national security and economic challenges that could undermine the fundamentals of the German way of life.
“Every U.S. president has pressured Europeans on defense since Truman. The policy didn’t change, the style has changed.”
Got quoted in @wsj.com on how Trump’s approach is shaking up NATO spending.
www.wsj.com/world/europe...
@dsdkings.bsky.social
North Korean provocations since 1953, by U.S. administrations.
Source: beyondparallel.csis.org/database-nor... (from @korea.csis.org)
🌍🛡️ The Future of Defence 🛡️🌍
Nine essays on critical strategic topics, including:
-The evolving roles of the UK and NATO in global defence.
- The strategic implications of China's rising influence.
- Ongoing tensions with Russia, North Korea, and Iran.
rand.org/pubs/perspec...
#UKDefence #RAND
An update from @covertshores.bsky.social on #Ukraine’s uncrewed maritime strike systems.
My chapter for @randeurope.org argues that as US resolve and capability for NATO is uncertain, Europe must prepare to defend itself against RUS without US support. Stationing 3 European divisions on the Eastern Flank is one of the first steps to credible self-defence. doi.org/10.7249/PEA3...
🚨new article online
Looking at the global arms market, in this contribution @soulpark.bsky.social & Chirayu Thakkar argue that demand-side factors play an important part in explaining the success of second-tier producers.
👉 www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
My last publication for 2024, a short piece on why the combination of US tariffs and troops withdrawal may lead Europeans to turn to China, thus undermining US interests
