Special Situations Research Newsletter

Cousins Jensen Huang $NVDA and Lisa Su $AMD discussing the future of semiconductors, AI, and quantum computing in a sandbox full of silica in Santa Clara

Going into the new year / new administration, we will be sharing an interesting US equity idea tomorrow afternoon with 30%+ upside in a potential sale, and that pays a ~7% dividend while you wait...

Will be sizing as one of our larger positions...

www.specialsitsresearch.com/plans-pricing

Friendly reminder that there are nearly twice as many ETFs (3,882) outstanding than securities that are listed on the NYSE (2,272). If you include Nasdaq listings of 3,432, you get closer to ~5,700...

Eli Lilly $LLY Announces New $15 Billion Share Repurchase Program And Seventh Consecutive 15% Dividend Increase

Disney $DIS anticipates yet another price hike for Disney+. They have had like 0 new content outside a couple movies this winter...

Quantum computing revolution coming #google

USA debt to gdp worse than france

US is over 60% of global market cap

The Next Frontier: Sam Altman on the Future of A.I. and Society YouTube video by New York Times Events

Altman on launch of ChatGPT $NVDA $MSFT
www.youtube.com/watch?v=tn0X...

Billion dolla pizza

OPEC+ delays output hikes for a 3rd time in a row, but not enough for the market as crude roughly flat...

Delay is for only 3 months, eventually plans to unwind oil cuts from April through September 2026.

UAE will retain its 300k bbl/day increase as part of the deal, but will delay until April...

SpaceX has successfully launched the first orbital shell of its Starlink Direct to Cell constellation, allowing standard LTE-compatible cellphones to connect directly to satellites for internet access in remote or disaster-stricken areas. This technology aims to eliminate communication dead zones.

Bitcoin above 103,000

** CYBER MONDAY ONLINE SALES +7% YoY $ADBE **

* According to Adobe, Cyber Monday online sales increased 7% YoY to $13.3B, modestly above the company’s estimate of $13.2B

* Buy now, pay later (BNPL) usage accounted for $991MM of Cyber Monday online sales, +6% YoY

NRF data on U.S. consumers shopping on Thanksgiving

* According to the National Retail Federation (NRF), 197MM consumers shopped during Thanksgiving weekend (Thanksgiving – Cyber Monday), -2% YoY. Shoppers by channel: in-store 126MM (+4% YoY) and online 124MM (-7%)

Corporate margins

Damac Group, backed by billionaire developer Hussain Sajwani, plans to invest about $3 billion to build data centers across Southeast Asia as the region becomes a hub for AI and cloud services. $NVDA

Edgnex Data Centers, a unit of the Dubai-based conglomerate will build across Malaysia

Sensormatic – Thanksgiving weekend in-store traffic -4% YoY, including Black Friday -8%

Signfiyd – Black Friday online sales +5% YoY

Average discounts totaled 27% (Adobe/Salesforce) and 29% (Signifyd)

RetailNext – Black Friday in-store traffic -3% YoY nationwide. Apparel and footwear grew modestly, versus a sharp decline in health and beauty, and a modest decline in jewelry. Regionally, the Midwest experienced the sharpest declines due to colder weather

Salesforce – Thanksgiving day online sales +8% YoY to $8.1B. Black Friday online sales +7% YoY to $17.5B. Top categories included health and beauty, apparel, and home appliances

Mastercard SpendingPulse – Black Friday retail sales (ex-auto) +3% YoY: online sales +15%; in-store sales +1%. Jewelry, electronics, and apparel were the top gift categories

US Thanksgiving weekend shopping
Adobe – Thanksgiving day online sales +9% YoY to $6.1B (vs est of $6.1B), including mobile purchases +11% to $3.6B. Black Friday online sales +10% YoY to $10.8B (vs est of $10.8B). Increased sales were driven more by demand than inflation, and discounts exceeded exp

Air Cargo Flights from China Jumps 73 Percent in Mad Rush to Avoid Trump’s Tariffs (BBG, Mish)

10 year significant decline in yields

US homes are getting smaller: The size of new homes being built has declined by 12% since 2016