Stephen Walt

U.S. Loses 92,000 Jobs in Widespread and Unexpected Downturn The payrolls number was worse than expected and a sign that the job market continues to struggle in nearly every sector.

In the last third of a century, the US economy has generated +49.9m jobs under Democratic presidents and -800k under GOP Presidents. www.wsj.com/economy/jobs...

Wars Often Lose Public Support Over Time. Trump Started This One Without Much.

Americans skipped the rally-around-the-president stage this time. JFK gained 13 points after Cuban Missile Crisis, LBJ 8 after bombing Hanoi, GHW Bush 18 during Gulf War, GW Bush 8 after Saddam captured, Obama 11 after OBL killed. Trump gained 0 since Iran. www.nytimes.com/2026/03/06/u...

Who raised him? Who the hell raised this boy?

It takes real galaxy brains to mass cancel solar and wind projects and then start a pointless unpopular war that sends oil prices soaring.

Poll: A majority of Americans opposes U.S. military action in Iran Most Americans disapprove of President Trump's handling of Iran, and a majority sees Iran as either only a minor threat or no threat at all, an NPR/PBS News/Marist poll finds.

"Just 36% approve of how Trump is handling Iran, and a majority (55%) thinks Iran either represents a minor threat or no threat at all to the United States." www.npr.org/2026/03/06/n...

Scenes from a personalist regime: it is the presidential vibes that determine when the opponent has surrendered and when the war is over, not any pesky observable facts

Donald Trump Has Lit a Global Match Trump and his aides think the United States has global leverage that his predecessors refused to use. He seems to forget that other countries have leverage, too—and they’re intent on using it to stop ...

Long and useful article on Trump as a pyromaniac; setting longstanding relationships afire to no good purpose. Consumer warning: I am quoted. newrepublic.com/article/2072...

Why Wars Are Easy to Start and Hard to End Misperception, sunk costs, escalation, and internationalization all make conflicts last longer than planned.

Re-upping for no particular reason: foreignpolicy.com/2022/08/29/w...

Telling poll of which partners Germans trust - France as always on top, with the UK now as joint E3 partner a close second.

Trump's USA is just 3 points above Russia.

War is the worst of human endeavors, but the reason militaries do not fight by pure thuggery, as the United States now does, is that it ultimately puts us more at risk and defiles us as a country. What are we even fighting for if we are nothing but the biggest bully on the block?

More horseshit…

Americans ought to ponder just how they came to reflexively assume they had the right to bomb any country there leaders wanted, and further to assume—contrary to much evidence—that this would make them better off.

Just reflect for a minute on how bad one has to be to get fired from the Trump II cabinet.

No. Peter Thiel cannot be allowed to annex the National Science Foundation via this Palantir proxy.

It would be like putting a pyromaniac in charge of the Library of Alexandria: destruction of a global treasure with no "undo" button.

This is a "to the barricades" moment.

If the government gets to decide if you have them, they're not human rights.

🎯

Screenshot of an X post by Senator Tom Cotton saying Iran has been an imminent threat to the United States for 47 years and that the president was right to act. Below is a Fox News segment with Cotton speaking while footage labeled “U.S. Central Command – Unclassified” shows a strike.

“Imminent.” You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.

Thursday, 4:15 PM at Harvard's Kennedy School, join a discussion of the new book, "From Apartheid to Democracy: A Blueprint for Peace in Israel-Palestine," with co-authors Michael Schaeffer Omer-Man and @sarahleah1.bsky.social, moderated by @stephenwalt.bsky.social

There is No Scientific Justification to Revoke the Endangerment Finding The U.S. EPA's decision to repeal the Endangerment Finding will limit the government's ability to regulate emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases under the Clean Air Act.

As I say here, there is no scientific justification to revoke the engagement finding. In fact, over the last 15+ yrs, the evidence of how climate change affects our health has only grown. Higher risk of allergies, dementia, fertility, heart disease, and death: that’s what’s on the line. @nature.org

Exclusive: Diplomats claim Witkoff undermined Iran talks They say Trump envoy is falsely claiming Iranians boasted of having enough enriched uranium for 11 nuclear bombs.

Where Trump got his info on Iran talks: Diplomats claim his special envoy, a real estate billionaire friend, undermined talks. A Gulf diplomat with direct knowledge of the talks says that Steve Witkoff’s description of a key conversation was false. www.ms.now/news/exclusi...

Trump’s Orwellian Board of Peace Consists Entirely of Human Rights Abusers An Intercept analysis finds that every single Board of Peace member state has been rebuked for human rights violations.

"An Intercept analysis finds that every member state of the Board of Peace has been rebuked for human rights violations, including many by Rubio’s own State Department." What a sick joke Trump is. theintercept.com/2026/03/02/t...

“Because my ally was going to bomb my enemy, my enemy was going to retaliate by bombing me, so I had to bomb my enemy before my ally did” is the weirdest logic for starting a war I’ve ever heard.

you can have a dinner that celebrates the First Amendment or a dinner that features Donald Trump but you cannot have both

How Trump Decided to Go to War

Damning NYT story on the decision-making leading up to this war: "The president said he understood the risks of an attack, but he conveyed to Mr. Carlson that he had no choice but to join a strike that Israel would launch." www.nytimes.com/2026/03/02/u...

Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters Monday that the United States faced an "imminent threat" from Iran - but only if Iran was first attacked by Israel. "The imminent threat was that we knew if Iran was attacked, and we believed they would be attacked, that they would immediately come after us. And we were not going to sit there and absorb a blow before we responded," Rubio told reporters on Capitol Hill, where he was briefing lawmakers.

So Rubio said we had to bomb Iran bc Israel was about to and all hell would then break loose.

If only there were some big, powerful country that could have stopped Israel.

www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/0...

The United States Is Still Addicted to War Why every U.S. president ends up in a major military campaign.

For American presidents, the use of force has become too easy and seemingly risk-free, argues columnist @stephenwalt.bsky.social.

I am beginning to get the sense that Kushner and Wittkoff are not very good at diplomacy.

Iran Does Not Have Nuclear Weapons - Lawyers, Guns & Money It’s time to say it again: It’s highly doubtful that the Iranians were pursuing a nuclear weapon. And they certainly don’t have any. Donald Trump says that (one of the purposes/ the purpose) of his at...

I would remiss if I did not adequately amplify @cherylrofer.bsky.social's concise, clear, and unassailable summary of why one of the Trump administration's main rationales for its illegal war is bullshit.

Iran After the Ayatollah: Stephen Walt on the Risks of Regime Collapse YouTube video by Switzerland with Tom Switzer

Despite the grim topics, glad to have the chance to talk with Australia’s Tom Switzer about US war on Iran, realism, predatory hegemony, and related issues. youtu.be/44Iu5SQa55A

New: Pentagon briefers acknowledged to congressional staff in a briefing Sunday that Iran was not planning to strike US forces or bases in the Middle East unless Israel attacked Iran first, multiple sources to @NatashaBertrand , @jmhansler & me. Why this matters: It undercuts Trump admin’s argument on Saturday that Iran was planning to potentially strike the US preemptively & posed an imminent threat:

No legal basis under either U.S. or international law to attack Iran.

No attack upon the U.S., nor imminent threat of one, nor any congressional authorization.

And the USG ought to be able to restrain the principal recipient of U.S. military assistance from provocations.

All utterly lawless.