NEW: The high cost of living is on the forefront of the public's mind. The government should launch 'a war on bills' - a multi-year policy campaign to bring costs down. There are no silver bullets, but there are lots of small things that the government can do to show that it's on people side. (1/4)
You can either increase taxes or cut public spending - the macroeconomic effects, in general, are pretty similar. Question is which policy would be a bigger risk to growth given the current state of the UK economy. I say the economy needs a more effective and well-resourced government, not lower tax
I would also direct this meme towards the specious whattaboutery on energy costs now being pushed by mainstream commentators (like the economist...)
www.economist.com/britain/2025...
This is an ace paper. We are far beyond "China dominates supply". Building domestic/regional supply chains are contingent on Chinese firms/expertise. The most interesting qus for govts now around tech transfer and leapfrogging rather than competition
www.netzeropolicylab.com/china-green-...
The UK isn't close to broke but it does have a problem with fiscal drama. Tax rises will help - higher revenues will mean that HMT is less under pressure from chaotic financial markets, and the UK economy is more stable.
Pleased to be quoted in
@politicshome.bsky.social by @nadinebh.bsky.social
Banks should use the liquidity generated by these excess savings to provide financial backing for real investments, to create new assets in the UK economy (businesses or infrastructure). Instead they want to pump money into existing assets and make a quick buck
@barclaysuk.bsky.social
says savers should shove cash savings into stocks for “higher returns” and to “help the economy.” What it really means is more risk for households, no guarantee of new UK investment, and one certainty—banks rake in more fees. Financial assets ≠ real investment.
We are just the only country stupid enough to discuss "black holes" every time yields rise 10bps
Lots on cost curves, technology, etc but nothing on what problem this *actually* solves. If road safety is the ultimate benefit, the same thing could be achieved through more public transport provision (buses, trams, light rail). This is another shiny big tech solution seeking a problem
This isn't really true though. Borrowing over the quarter is completely in line with OBR's expectations. Borrowing was higher than expected in June, lower than expected in May, overall no deviation to the OBR's forecast. Economists in the city just got it wrong...
The only questions are ones of longevity and scale - will this 10-year strategy be seen to completion, and is it going to be backed by enough funding firepower to get the job done? 8/8
The focus on reducing energy costs and building long-term certainty for these industries is very welcome. The use of strategic, catalytic finance and a new skills offer will help to make the UK a very attractive place to invest in the industries of the future. 7/8
There is also a very welcome focus on foundational sectors such as ports, steel and other materials manufacturing. The presence of these industries are vital for the success of factories around the country who rely on their supply of material inputs. 6/8
The strategy doubles down on green transport with support for zero emissions vehicles and sustainable aviation. Low-carbon transport technologies, such as battery powered electric vehicles, are growing much faster than their fossil fuel equivalents around the world. 5/8
With a bit of investment in factories and skills, the UK's strengths in boilers can transition to heat pumps 4/8
Second, heat pumps. Once again, there’s a global manufacturing shortage. The UK has one of the largest heating and cooling industries in Europe but is currently specialised in boiler manufacturing. We know that there is significant overlap in making boilers and heat pumps 3/8
First, Wind. The UK has seen some of the fastest growth in offshore wind energy in the world, but has been slow to develop an industry around the supply chain. With supply shortages emerging, it is a great time for to invest in expanding wind manufacturing in Britain. 2/8
Today’s industrial strategy made some clear strategic choices for the future direction of the UK economy. @ippr.org found that there are opportunities for the UK in three key clean technology industries, all of which are featured in the strategy 1/8
GDP stats today were a pleasant surprise for the Chancellor.
BUT there are real headwinds coming up. There needs to be a real commitment to long-term investment.
It was great to talk about this on the BBC (with a brief intrusion from Trump...)
youtu.be/l5r5ib4Jb24
Thanks @prospectmagazine.co.uk @aloner.bsky.social who let me write about Tony Blair's recent tribute act to the TB-GBs of New Labour, with some more serious consideration of where his NZ antipathy comes and the new politics if climate
mini 🧵
www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/698...
we outline several recommendations to support electric rail and all kinds of transport manufacturing growth here
www.ippr.org/articles/pla...
This is what growth looks like - innovation leading to successful export opportunities in things that the world needs.
UK rail manufacturing is small right now but it has potential - the new government's Industrial Strategy has to support it
www.telegraph.co.uk/business/202...
I'm thinking this is more to do with the kind of work we have - lots of workers, particularly on the minimum wage, are in sectors like hospitality and retail - Baumol effect sectors, rather sectors that are capable of dynamic productivity growth
Green transport manufacturing, including e-bikes, buses and EVs, can play a key role in the UK's industrial strategy
Governance matters: this strategy must fit with creating a better transport system - one that embraces 'multimodal mobility' and reduces car dependency
New @ippr.bsky.social report👇
In our report,out today, we set out how the government can use its industrial strategy to do just that
www.ippr.org/articles/pla...
Many UK manufacturers are making the investments needed to compete on these technologies. E.g. 35% of UK car exports are already electric or hybrid, Rolls-Royce is innovating to improve the energy efficiency of their jet engines, and are working on zero-emissions flight
The future of transport is zero- and low-carbon. Where these technologies exist, they are seeing significant growth in trade and displacing fossil-fuel based technologies
The UK already has a strong industrial base for transport products - we're able to make cars, vans, jet engines, aircraft wings and more
