February's jobs report will stoke divisions at the Fed. Some officials remain concerned about the health of the labor market and willing to cut rates to support it. Others seem more attuned to the risk posed by inflation, an issue that has only intensified in light of the conflict in the Middle East
Beth Hammack tells @nytimes.com that the Fed should be on hold for "quite some time"
The next move may also not necessarily be down: "If we don’t see inflation moving toward target as I expect, it could mean that we need to put more restriction on the economy" www.nytimes.com/2026/03/04/b...
Waller, a Fed governor who dissented against January's rate cut pause, said he is open to holding rates steady in March if the labor market continues to stabilize.
He also doesn't expect the Supreme Court ruling to impact his rate outlook
www.nytimes.com/2026/02/23/b... @nytimes.com
NEW w/ @bencasselman.bsky.social: Can an A.I.-driven productivity boom give the Fed space to cut rates? That's the argument that Kevin Warsh, Trump's pick to lead the central bank is making
But getting his soon-to-be colleagues on board will not be easy
www.nytimes.com/2026/02/20/b... @nytimes.com
Minutes from January's Fed meeting confirmed that officials are in no hurry to restart rate cuts. But according to the discussion, several officials raised the possibility of rate hikes if inflation stayed stubbornly high www.nytimes.com/2026/02/18/b... @nytimes.com
Inflation eased to 2.4% in January from the same time last year, down from the previous 2.7% annual pace and down from 3.0% when Trump took office. @colbylsmith.bsky.social www.nytimes.com/2026/02/13/b...
January inflation usually comes in hot, averaging 0.03 percentage points higher than other months in a given year since 1985 according to research from the Boston Fed
But this time, it defied expectations, coming in cooler than forecasted www.nytimes.com/2026/02/13/b... @nytimes.com
"The window to see a material weakening in the labor market is probably closing," says Stephen Juneau at Bank of America. "It seems like we have more momentum building in the economy rather than the reverse of that."
www.nytimes.com/2026/02/11/b... @nytimes.com
January's jobs report, which showed stronger than expected monthly growth plus the unemployment rate ticking down gives the Fed cover to hold rates steady at its March meeting. Officials will get one more jobs report before then, however. www.nytimes.com/2026/02/11/b... @nytimes.com
NEW: Stephen Miran, who joined the Fed in September, has resigned from his role as CEA chair per a letter seen by @nytimes.com
Miran initially took only a temporary leave of absence from his position as one of Trump's top economic advisers nytimes.com/2026/02/03/b... @tonyromm.bsky.social
For Kevin Hassett, his loyalty to Trump was seen as his most valuable asset once auditions began to become the next Fed chair. But that proximity ultimately morphed into his biggest liability, leaving him to lose out on the top job. www.nytimes.com/2026/01/31/b... @nytimes.com @tonyromm.bsky.social
After winning a contentious election for chair of Stanford's student senate, Warsh told the college paper that he "will not be manipulated by political parties."
35 years later, the onus is again on Warsh to prove that independence www.nytimes.com/2026/01/31/b... @nytimes.com w/ Sydney Ember
Warsh's supporters expect him to handle any political pressure well. Druckenmiller, who described him as a "Swiss Army knife," said he had "been through the gauntlet" and had the markets experience crucial for the job. He also had some thoughts about QT www.nytimes.com/2026/01/30/b... @nytimes.com
"Quite the tap dance," is how one fmr Fed president who worked alongside Warsh when he was a governor described what the next chair will be up against amid Trump's calls for lower rates.
"It's going to be Fred Astaire as central bank chair."
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/30/b... @nytimes.com
Trump makes it official this morning. Warsh for Fed chair.
"On top of everything else, he is 'central casting,' and he will never let you down," the president writes on social media
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/30/u...
Trump is expected to announce Kevin Warsh as Fed chair tomorrow, ending an extensive, highly publicized audition process for one of the president's most consequential appointments.
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/29/b... @tylerpager.bsky.social @nytimes.com
NEW: For a judicial body often fraught with division over Trump’s claims to executive power, the Supreme Court on Wednesday found moments of unity in questioning the economic costs of the president’s efforts to meddle with the Fed
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/21/u... @nytimes.com @tonyromm.bsky.social
After two hours of lively arguments, the Supreme Court seemed likely to rule narrowly and provisionally in favor of Lisa Cook, the Fed governor whom Trump has sought to fire based on an accusation of mortgage fraud
Takeaways w/ @adamliptak.bsky.social www.nytimes.com/2026/01/21/u... @nytimes.com
The big question now confronting Powell is whether he should stay on as a governor after his term as chair ends in May.
"If he thinks that his resignation as governor will endanger the institution and its independence, he’d be tempted to stay on," says fmr Fed vice chair Don Kohn
NEW: Powell had a list of lawmakers who he thought would have his back after finally taking on Trump
His belief that he would find a groundswell of support was not an idle thought, but the product of years of relationship-building on Capitol Hill.
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/16/u... @nytimes.com
At a healthcare event on Friday, Trump points out Hassett (a frontrunner to replace Powell as chair) and praises his work on TV, saying: "I actually want to keep you where you are, if you want to know the truth...I would lose you. It's a serious concern to me"
Kashkari is a voting member on this year's FOMC. He does not see "any impetus to cut in January," reinforcing expectations that the central bank will hold rates steady when they meet at the end of the month
“The escalation over the course of the past year is really about monetary policy,” Minneapolis Fed president Kashkari tells
@nytimes.com of the Trump administration’s threats against the central bank
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/14/u...
"The drama is all Powell," Jeanine Pirro tells @nytimes.com
"If Mr. Powell had responded to our emails this could have been handled very easily" www.nytimes.com/2026/01/13/u...
Pirro did not discuss the Powell case with Trump or share any info with her bosses. Before the subpoenas landed, the Fed had received two emails from Carlton Davis, special counsel, on Dec 19 and Dec 29. Neither mentioned the threat of a criminal investigation nor a deadline for a response
NEW: The federal investigation into Fed chair Powell has sparked intense blowback, threatening to undermine Trump's effort to assert more dominance over the central bank
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/13/u... @nytimes.com
Williams tells reporters after his event that he did not think there was "strong pressure one way or another to do anything" in terms of monetary policy actions and that he would be approaching rate decisions "business as usual" www.nytimes.com/2026/01/12/b...
Williams defends Powell in a Q&A after his speech on Monday. Said the Fed chair is "completely dedicated" to the institution and is a man of "impeccable integrity."
He also warned about the costs of the Fed's independence being jeopardized, leading to "unfortunate outcomes"
In a speech on Monday, John Williams of @newyorkfed.bsky.social conveys little urgency for immediate rate cuts, reinforcing expectations that the central bank will hold rates steady at the end of month despite the likely pushback from Trump
