Thiago Moreira

Party gatekeeping of working-class candidates under closed-list proportional representation Do political parties discriminate against working-class candidates? Several studies indicate political parties may disadvantage working-class candidat…

New article available now!

In this new paper with Spencer Goidel and @barmstrong.bsky.social, we show that the drug crisis boosts Republican vote, especially among independents, by lowering both Democratic support and abstention.

Job alert! We are hiring.

Diary I decided to keep a record of my thoughts as events transpire, a diary.

Here is the update through Week 6, early because I am traveling. adamprzeworski.substack.com/p/diary

With survey data, I show that as the perceived polarization increases, partisans are less likely to have a negative view of the economy under their party’s administration, and those who still hold a negative economic evaluation are less likely to punish their party for it. 3/3

Using county-level data, I show that increasing polarization over time is associated with a decrease in the number of voters who cast a ballot for the opposition or abstain in response to negative economic conditions. The results are robust for the LDV and a time trend. 2/3

What happens to economic voting under high polarization? In this @bjpols.bsky.social paper, I argue that voters stick with their preferred party as the ideological distance between parties increases, reducing their propensity to hold incumbents accountable for economic outcomes. 1/3

New (open access) publication with @philipp-kerler.bsky.social. We draw on fieldwork to build a theoretical model that outlines the conditions when the expectation of clientelism can drive selective political engagement, something we call asymmetric participation. #distributivepolitics #clientelism

Why democracy, backsliding, or autocracy? Unabashedly, I think this model has exceptionally rich results. The introductory overview is intended to be self-explanatory without delving into the math. See papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf

My 6th APSA. Crazy how fast time flies.

Heading to APSA in Philly. If you will be there and still don't have plans for Saturday afternoon, drop by to see our presentation. José Cheibub, Andrea Junqueira, and I study effective participation across income groups with granular electoral data from Brazil.