Thanks to Meghna Chakrabarti and Claire Donnelly for having me on to chat about health care employment on their @wbur.org show On Point! We could have gone on a lot longer. You can listen here:
www.wbur.org/onpoint/2026...
Read @sharonk.bsky.social. great insights on FP!
CBPP's @gbenga-ajilore.bsky.social provides insights and analysis on the latest jobs data released today.
I think that it's very likely that the residual between hard and soft data is constant, while the hard data gets bad.
Maybe it's the only sane period.
I don't think economists really did? Like @ernietedeschi.bsky.social's analysis was solid.
I think partly 1.) lots of non econ people put out bad vibes that went backed up by models/data 2.) the original announced tariffs were much higher than final implemented tariffs.
Raising taxes - even in a dumb way like tariffs - is not plausibly causing a recession.
(Especially insofar as OBBA negates it)
It's like arguing that Obamacare was going to cause a recession. Just a misunderstanding of the size of flows or what causes recessions.
Yes.
Nominal GDP is $31 trillion.
2024 government receipts were $3.1 trillion.
Guy we almost got to talk about labor markets without macro.
We were so close.
My recap of today's jobs report. Don't overreact to the February data...
Instead, you should worry about what spiking oil prices will do to future data.
Link: macromostly.substack.com/p/bls-jobs-r...
Unemployment insurance is truly incredible.
What hath @weratedogs.com wrought.
FOLKS THIS IS WHAT HAPPENS WHEN YOU USE OLS ON A BOUNDED CONTINUOUS VARIABLE 🤦
Good economy doesn't mean good for everyone (but to some extent it's a precondition for things being good for most people).
Remember the famed 1990s productivity boom? Post-covid era is now beating it. That includes nice wage increases, and an even higher rate of growth in the non-financial corporate sector. I continue to be surprised nobody cares about this, outside massive dorkwads.
I would just like to note that I would have purchased a Switch 2 and several games in a non-tariff counterfactual.
Never is tbh.
Not a great time for widespread implementation of work requirements for SNAP now is it?
Windows.
(Claude Code is the first time I've used the terminal since....1995?)
What would you recommend for non-software engineers that just want to make unemployment graphs?
Ok, but what does it do for the top 0.1%?
Just wrote an AI piece about labor market effects!
www.theargumentmag.com/p/the-tinder...
"there is a lot of ruin in a nation" wasn't supposed to be a prescriptive claim!
Yep (but also there are always emerging problems. There were emerging problems in 2022 and it was managed.)
That's 5.2. need to use 5.4.
Blueskyism.
Pretty close!
The detrended payroll standard deviation since 1/1/2022 is 117k (184k without detrending).
Thanks!
wrt the insurance facility - is this subsidizing the insurance? Or directly paying? (sorry no FT subscription).
Oh sure, yeah I was thinking about consumer experience not FOMC reaction function.
