No sign of it, no, except maybe in the ethnic peripheries, especially Kurdish areas. Otherwise not.
06.03.2026 17:56
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“Without boots on the ground, Mr Trump may be avoiding the biggest risks in what looks unnervingly like a national neurotic repetition compulsion”
@ibishblog.bsky.social
05.03.2026 07:08
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Something New Is Happening in Lebanon
For the first time, the country’s government is directly confronting a weakened Hezbollah.
Something New Is Happening in Lebanon
For the first time, the country’s government is directly confronting a weakened Hezbollah
My latest for The Atlantic
www.theatlantic.com/internationa...
06.03.2026 17:54
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This is still valid, more than a month after I first wrote it
05.03.2026 06:59
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This is one of the best webinars I’ve ever moderated:
05.03.2026 06:57
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Iran War Provides Decisive Test for Lebanon to Assert Authority Over Hezbollah - AGSI
After decades of tolerating Hezbollah’s warmaking independence, the current crisis has compelled Lebanese leaders to ban its military activities; this project will do much to determine the reach Iran…
After decades of tolerating Hezbollah’s warmaking independence, the current crisis has compelled Lebanese leaders to ban its military activities; this project will do much to determine the reach Iran can maintain in the Arab world. @ibishblog.bsky.social
03.03.2026 17:30
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Caught in the Crosshairs, Gulf Arab Countries Remain Crucial to Peace - AGSI
Though they were unsuccessful in preventing the current conflict, and, as expected, have been dragged into the U.S.-Israeli confrontation with Iran, Gulf Arab countries remain crucial to hopes for…
Though they were unsuccessful in preventing the current conflict, and, as expected, have been dragged into the U.S.-Israeli confrontation with Iran, Gulf Arab countries remain crucial to hopes for limiting the war and bringing it to a quick resolution. @ibishblog.bsky.social
04.03.2026 16:30
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Of Course the UAE Is Not Preparing To Take Over Gaza - AGSI
When quickly debunked rumors in the Israeli media that the UAE was seeking to manage postconflict Gaza were widely welcomed in Israel, it demonstrated both the trust the UAE has built among Israelis b...
When quickly debunked rumors in the Israeli media that the UAE was seeking to manage postconflict Gaza were widely welcomed in Israel, it demonstrated both the trust the UAE has built among Israelis but also their lack of understanding of Emirati policies and interests. @ibishblog.bsky.social
05.02.2026 21:30
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Neither Israel nor Hamas interested in phase 2 of ceasefire, researcher says
I explain to the excellent Mark z Owen of France 24 TV that neither Israel nor Hamas is sincerely interested in “Phase 2” of Trump’s non-existent ceasefire, but are both preparing to cement the very real partition and ongoing war in Gaza.
www.france24.com/en/neither-i...
06.02.2026 02:22
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Peter Gabriel - Put the Bucket Down (Bright-Side Mix)
YouTube video by Peter Gabriel
Peter Gabriel is still THE MAN, bringing it here with a stunning new track:
Put the Bucket Down (Bright-Side Mix) youtu.be/WmXXYjOs4LU?... via @YouTube
02.02.2026 09:39
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Peter Gabriel - Put the Bucket Down (Bright-Side Mix)
YouTube video by Peter Gabriel
Peter Gabriel is still THE MAN, bringing it here with a stunning new track:
Put the Bucket Down (Bright-Side Mix) youtu.be/WmXXYjOs4LU?... via @YouTube
02.02.2026 09:39
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This was arguably the best panel we’ve held in the ten year history of @gulfstatesinst.bsky.social
14.11.2025 02:47
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After the Cease-Fire: The Regional Component of the Future of Gaza - AGSI
On November 4, AGSI and ROPES will co-host a discussion about regional dynamics after the recent Israel-Hamas cease-fire.
"In the end, the big news was the extent to which the Arab countries put their differences aside and decided to back the same ideas. This is a very important inflection point in the ability of Arab states to work together." @ibishblog.bsky.social agsi.org/events/after...
04.11.2025 17:36
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Four Priorities for Mohammed bin Salman in Washington - AGSI
When the Saudi crown prince meets President Trump in Washington, the main topics of discussion are likely to be commercial deals, a defense pact, a Saudi civilian nuclear program, and normalization…
Saudi Arabia has long sought a formula for clarifying the regional security role of the large-scale U.S. military facilities in the Gulf region, especially the significant air base in Qatar and naval headquarters in Bahrain. @ibishblog.bsky.social
11.11.2025 19:04
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The U.S.-Saudi Partnership Ahead of the Crown Prince’s Washington Visit - AGSI
On November 12, AGSI will host a discussion about the U.S.-Saudi partnership ahead of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's visit to Washington.
VERY excited to be discussing “The US-Saudi Partnership Ahead of the MBS’s Washington Visit tomorrow morning with @HeshamAlghannam, @kdiwaniya,@BernardHaykel, and F. Gregory Gause, lll.
It’s another best of the best panel, for @GulfStatesInst of course.
agsi.org/events/the-u...
12.11.2025 00:51
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Israel's Gaza attacks strike at Donald Trump's reputation as a peacemaker | The National
The US President's legacy is inexorably bound up with the enclave's future
But ever since the ceasefire was agreed, Trump couldn’t miss the many clear signs that the Israeli leader has been looking for an excuse to resume fighting. Playing on the PM’s famous nickname, Israelis have been referring to this as “Bibi-sitting”.
www.thenationalnews.com/opinion/comm...
30.10.2025 18:58
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Israel's Gaza attacks strike at Donald Trump's reputation as a peacemaker | The National
The US President's legacy is inexorably bound up with the enclave's future
The downside of his exuberant boasting and demands for the Nobel Peace Prize is that, while Trump deserves credit for having helped organise the desperately needed ceasefire, both the truce and a potential return to war are now inexorably linked to him.
www.thenationalnews.com/opinion/comm...
30.10.2025 18:56
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More than 170 Americans have been detained by ICE since Donald Trump took office. Dozens have been incarcerated for days, including approximately 20 children-4 of whom were held for weeks
Citizens have “been dragged, tackled, beaten, tased and shot by..They’ve had their necks kneeled on”
30.10.2025 18:51
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Israel's Gaza attacks strike at Donald Trump's reputation as a peacemaker | The National
The US President's legacy is inexorably bound up with the enclave's future
It’s difficult to parse the words and deeds of these two highly unreliable and non-credible actors. Both Israel and Hamas have contributed heavily to the devastating Gaza war, and neither appear fully convinced that ending the conflict is preferable for them.
www.thenationalnews.com/opinion/comm...
30.10.2025 18:54
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Israel's Gaza attacks strike at Donald Trump's reputation as a peacemaker | The National
The US President's legacy is inexorably bound up with the enclave's future
Among the many casualties of renewed fighting, especially if it spirals back into full-blown warfare, will be the claims and credibility of US President Donald Trump.
My latest for The National
www.thenationalnews.com/opinion/comm...
30.10.2025 18:52
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Thank you. It was very good.
28.10.2025 17:46
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This is an excellent explanation of a highly significant agreement formally linking the Saudi and Pakistani defense structures — and thereby redrawing the strategic landscape of the Gulf and Indian Ocean areas. From AGSI, naturally.
28.10.2025 17:45
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I know the filmmakers would love it, otherwise they wouldn’t have made it so hilarious!
18.10.2025 22:44
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