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Josh McCrain

@joshmccrain

Political scientist at the University of Utah. Public policy, political institutions, media and politics

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Latest posts by Josh McCrain @joshmccrain

Yes yes

05.03.2026 22:03 ๐Ÿ‘ 3 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

why can't we bash both

05.03.2026 19:20 ๐Ÿ‘ 3 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

(FWIW this answer is also why I don't understand people dunking on sean westwood for his point on lit reviews...)

04.03.2026 18:29 ๐Ÿ‘ 0 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

yes AI cannot make you an expert in the paper. if you have to write and do a full 40 minute job market style talk on it, that'll catch AI use most of the time IMO

04.03.2026 18:28 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

then, i have another agent be the antagonist/reviewer 2 to all answers generated, and iterate over this. this would work remarkably well and probably better than most people who spent months studying coudl do themselves 2/2

04.03.2026 18:27 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

before people say "well LLMs hallucinate and are bad writers":

say i have a reading list for comps. I have zotero export ALL papers from that list (plus some other core papers I think are necessary) into a folder. I have CC ingest those papers and tell it to ONLY use those papers for answers 1/2

04.03.2026 18:26 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

absolutely not useful

04.03.2026 18:25 ๐Ÿ‘ 2 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 2 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

an important and underdiscussed point on the rise of agentic AI

04.03.2026 16:53 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Lol sold

03.03.2026 19:53 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

yeah this is exactly my take. in crim it's particularly pernicious because the results of these "quasi experimental" designs are aggregated up (sometimes explicitly) to say Policy X works, this is well known, you must use policy X in your police department.

03.03.2026 19:28 ๐Ÿ‘ 3 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

in leading criminology journals (such as the Journal of Experimental Criminology) "quasi-experimental" is frequently used in explicitly non-causal designs, such as purely a selection on observables conditional independence case (we controlled for all the differences). this seems bad to me.

03.03.2026 19:14 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 1

it actually might be pretty good at that lol

03.03.2026 17:38 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

or it's best used when vibe coding some bullshit app lol (truly incredible on this front)

03.03.2026 16:54 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 2 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

when you read the phrase "quasi-experimental" what does it mean to you?

03.03.2026 16:50 ๐Ÿ‘ 2 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 5 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

I would change this slightly to say I think they are best used in settings where you yourself have expertise

03.03.2026 16:49 ๐Ÿ‘ 2 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

interesting! i'm not aware of this literature, but surely the aggregated effect entirely depends on what the constellation of heterogenous effects are?

03.03.2026 16:21 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
Post image Post image

if, like me, you were not aware of this: Ghost Criminology is a thing (but it's also not real science):

02.03.2026 16:37 ๐Ÿ‘ 0 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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sean is right about this, but it's not clear what things will look like which is why it's hard to talk about concretely

23.02.2026 18:20 ๐Ÿ‘ 0 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

no i agree with that, but it's been clear for over a year now online assignments are dead. more generally regarding online courses, i'm having a hard time envisioning a future where employers see those as valuable at all

23.02.2026 17:49 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

i mean, if you're using canvas for assignments these days and this is a shock to you i don't know whta to tell you

23.02.2026 17:45 ๐Ÿ‘ 2 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

i mean very possible i'm over fitting based on my personal experience & workflow. I have tons of projects with vastly different datasets and this makes me able to actually pursue a lot more of them in a serious way

19.02.2026 18:45 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

yes i agree with this, though i could pull this off -- it'd take me longer -- and i have nowhere near the experience he does.

what i'm saying is for researchers it magnifies experience by 5-10x or whatever arbitrary number. thus if your'e not using it, you're not benefiting from that magnification

19.02.2026 18:31 ๐Ÿ‘ 0 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

i'm nto sure why you are so antagonistic towards me on this.

autonomy is not the point, is all i'm saying

19.02.2026 18:25 ๐Ÿ‘ 0 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

i don't think any of this has to do with autonomous

19.02.2026 18:19 ๐Ÿ‘ 0 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

it requires that amount of background *right now*

19.02.2026 17:55 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Yes sorry not the reproducibility thing per se, but this as an example of how powerful these tools are for our work

19.02.2026 17:55 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

This also demonstrates the great strides political science has made towards transparency and reproducibility. Such a task would be literally impossible in the criminology discipline, for instance.

19.02.2026 17:19 ๐Ÿ‘ 4 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
Preview
Yiqing Xu on X: "1/ ๐ŸŽ Our gift for the Year of the Horse: An AI-assisted workflow that scales reproducibility in empirical research. w/ @YangYang_Leo Paper: https://t.co/fslLN0zTQO https://t.co/SpX8SzTyNP" / X 1/ ๐ŸŽ Our gift for the Year of the Horse: An AI-assisted workflow that scales reproducibility in empirical research. w/ @YangYang_Leo Paper: https://t.co/fslLN0zTQO https://t.co/SpX8SzTyNP

An astounding piece of work, full thread here: x.com/xuyiqing/sta...

19.02.2026 17:03 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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I have not seen this mentioned here, but this is a great example of how the research world has dramatically changed underneath of us and if you're not keeping up you're going to be left behind quickly:

yiqingxu.org/papers/2026_...

19.02.2026 17:03 ๐Ÿ‘ 15 ๐Ÿ” 4 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 4 ๐Ÿ“Œ 1

@mattgrossmann.bsky.social, @joshmccrain.bsky.social, and I are putting together a panel at PolMeth in July on using CongressData, CSPP, and SenateData. We are aiming to have up to 5 people (preference to junior faculty using the data or interested in doing so). Please reach out to me if interested!

18.02.2026 18:35 ๐Ÿ‘ 3 ๐Ÿ” 4 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0