Republicans' hugely unpopular bill is law; will they pay the electoral price for it they should? My research with @patrick-sullivan.bsky.social for @equitablegrowth.bsky.social has good news: voters informed about the bill's effects overwhelmingly oppose it. equitablegrowth.org/americans-in...
Join us for the 5th Research Conference on the American Political Economy, July 28-30 on zoom, 12-2:30pm ET, to discuss cutting-edge APE research!
Register here: yale.zoom.us/meeting/regi... or check out the program (www.americanpoliticaleconomy.org/events/annua...) featuring@adambonica.bsky.social
Just days after President Trump signed his federal budget bill into law, EG is responding, highlighting why this is the most regressive piece of tax/budget legislation to be passed in recent memory.
Read our full statement below. ⬇️ equitablegrowth.org/press/equita...
Today, I was asked by Newsweek to comment on the dangerous implications of the BBB's slash to Medicaid. I had a whole lot to say. Since I know only a small share of it will wind up in the article, I'm including here the entirety of what I wrote today.
open.substack.com/pub/miranday...
7/ Maybe that’s part of the reason why the bill is so unpopular? The more people know about it, the more they hate it, per EG collaborators @jacobhacker.bsky.social & @patrick-sullivan.bsky.social. equitablegrowth.org/working-pape...
- END 🧵-
Legitimately feel sick. We are hours away from the largest cuts to low-income people in history. People’s lives will be ruined. It is so unfair. It’s unfair to be born into a system that allows this level of poverty in the first place and it’s evil to rip away aid from the needy. Hard to watch this.
But more importantly, they should vote "NO" on this horrendous and cruel piece of legislation because it's the right thing to do...
Republican members of Congress should take note
Republicans who voted to "repeal and replace" the Affordable Care Act in 2017 were more likely to lose reelection than their co-partisans who voted "No"
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
You can read more about this in a soon-to-be updated Working Paper we published @equitablegrowth.bsky.social
equitablegrowth.org/working-pape...
Moreover, majorities of all groups (Democrats, Independents, EVEN Republicans) who learned about distributional effects of the bill said they would be LESS likely for their senator in the future if they were to vote YES on the budget bill
Even Republicans who learned about the regressivity of the bill became overwhelmingly opposed
61 percent of Republicans in this group opposed the bill, with less than one-quarter supporting
But among those who learned about how regressive the bill is, opposition increased drastically, to 78 percent
In fact, opposition outnumbered support by a ratio of 7 to 1!
@jacobhacker.bsky.social and I found similar results in a recent survey we conducted, examining Americans' attitudes towards the GOP's budget bill
Among those who were asked directly for their opinions, opposition already outpaced support by nearly 20 percentage points
Trying to stay cautiously optimistic that we will see a few "profiles in courage" in the House today in the form of "NO" votes on the most regressive tax and budget bill in living memory
It's cruel, it will harm vulnerable Americans, and the public absolutely HATES it
www.cnn.com/2025/06/20/p...
You know what’s agonizing?
Not being able to get medical attention when you’re sick because you got dropped from Medicaid.
Rationing meds because you can’t afford it without insurance.
Realizing you don’t have enough food for you and your family because your SNAP benefits were reduced.
You own this.
NEW: The Senate version of One Big Beautiful Bill is one big ugly transfer of wealth from low-income families to the rich.
Americans struggling to get by will pay more for groceries & health care so the highest income families can get big tax cuts. This isn’t shared sacrifice.
As Republicans expedite their efforts to rip health coverage from millions of Americans, re-upping my writing on the not so-beautiful bill. First, my piece in The Hill w/ @mshepruralpolitics.bsky.social on harms to rural (conservative) communities (ex: hospital closures). thehill.com/opinion/heal...
As @brendanvduke.bsky.social says, this isn’t a case of shared sacrifice. The bill isn’t asking everyone to tighten their belts a little in the name of deficit reduction. Instead it’s asking the poorest to tighten their belts so the richest can loosen their belts.
That is profoundly unfair.
The Senate is racing to pass “a stand alone in history—a reconciliation bill that drives up poverty and the number of people uninsured, while increasing deficits and debt.”
@centeronbudget.bsky.social
How many GOP Senators who will vote for it think this is a good idea?
www.cbpp.org/press/statem...
“Legislation speaks louder than words.”
Excellent analysis by @jacobhacker.bsky.social
& @patrick-sullivan.bsky.social
of the bill before the Senate today that is “the most regressive, least populist policy package in memory.” It’s terrible on tax equity, heath care & hunger.
1 in 5 Americans depends on Medicaid to access health care.
1 in 7 Americans depends on SNAP for their food security.
These cuts— all to funnel tax cuts to the wealthiest— will cause needless suffering & death, not just among the poor: when rural hospitals close (which they will), everyone loses.
And if you would like to learn more about what is exactly in the so-called "Big Beautiful Bill," what makes it so regressive, and why it could even get worse, check out our recent policy report, also published at @equitablegrowth.bsky.social
equitablegrowth.org/congressiona...
In addition to the linked article above, you can also read more on the survey in a Working Paper we published with the great folks at @equitablegrowth.bsky.social
equitablegrowth.org/working-pape...
Whereas Republican support for the the bill in our control condition strongly outnumbered opposition, opposition dominates support in our treatment group - with Republicans opposing the GOP budget bill by a nearly 3:1 margin.
We also examined how the effects of this information varied by respondents' political affiliation.
Opposition increased for all groups (Dems, Independents, Reps) who received information on the bill's regressivity.
However, the effects of this information were largest among Republicans
That is an opposition to support ratio of 7:1!
Amongst respondents in our study that were asked directly for their opinions (our "control" group), opposition already outnumbered support (47 to 28).
But for those who learned about how regressive the bill was (our "treatment" group), opposition increased to 78% (and support dropped to 11%).
Great to speak with @michaelmechanic.bsky.social the other day regarding a recent study @jacobhacker.bsky.social and I conducted examining attitudes toward the GOP's historically regressive budget bill.
First, the bill is already VERY unpopular
www.motherjones.com/politics/202...
"the parts of the bill that are most expensive -- things like the big deductions for business income -- almost no-one knows about. The parts that are cheap and don't really change people's lives... a lot of people know about."
