TheSarapocalypse

Chances of an eventual inquiry into the government's response to the oil crisis?

And here's the link to the MBIE website. The link to the Fuel Security Study is in the Introduction under the Minister's Forward. 5/5
www.mbie.govt.nz/building-and...

Screenshot of the website where the plan is framed as 'New Zealand relies on imported refined liquid fuels. These fuels primarily petrol, diesel and jetfuel-are critical for our industries, businesses and day-to- day activities.Our liquid fuels are mostly derived from crude oil but also include some biofuels.

However, Minister Jones' frames liquid fossil fuels as being critical for our way of life and they're the focus of the Fuel Security Plan. They only mention of transition to electric fleet is the now defunct EV charger programme. The plan is mostly monitoring and reviews - not physical projects. 4/5

Scrednshot from the Study: Based on the results of the analysis above, we concluded that the most cost-effective strategies for enhancing fuel resilience is accelerating the transition to zero-emission vehicles, adding trucking capacity and increasing diesel storage. These measures provide the highest resilience benefits at for the cost. For jet fuel, increasing storage is the most cost-effective option. Investing in biofuels could also be viable for both jet fuel and diesel, but it requires further analysis and comes with higher costs. In contrast, reestablishing Marsden Point Refinery or developing a new refinery for indigenous crude proved inefficient due to either high costs and/or limited effectiveness across all fuel types.

The study notes that we are currently dependent on imported fossil fuels but that there's a trend to electric vehicles over time. It shows that the accelerated transition is a cost effective option to buffer against global shocks as is increasing the truck fleet for local disruption. 3/5

Graph showing the relative placement of the six options with the two axis being volume usefulness and cost.

Six mitigation strategies were assessed for 'volume usefulness' and annual cost: reestablish Marsden Pt, increase jet fuel storage, increase fuel trucking capacity, biofuel/low-carbon refineries, refinery for local fossil fuels, and accelerated transition to zero-emission vehicles. 2/5

Very dense and tiny text on the 'Plan on a Page' - not really legible, except for showing the four parts of the plan - Resilience against global shocks, domestic resilience,supporting domestic alternatives and resilience in a transitioning market.

Back in 2024 as part of the coalition agreement with NZ First, the govt commissioned a Fuel Security Study from Castalia and Envisory. It was released in Feb 2025 along with the government's Fuel Security Plan. They make for interesting reading - especially seeing what's missing from the plan. 🧵 1/5

And many other countries have been steadily increasing the transition to an electric economy - it's cheaper, cleaner and more resilient. Meantime, our govt has slashed any programmes we had and doubled down on burning high cost, dirty fossil fuels.

An oil supply crisis will trigger a sovereignty crisis for NZ Opinion: If Middle East oil flows were seriously disrupted, the multibillion dollar costs and geopolitical impacts would hit NZ harder than most other OECD countries, yet we are less prepared, writes ...

A timely piece on Aotearoa's preparedness in the event of an oil supply crisis due to issues in the Strait of Hormuz from... 2024.

newsroom.co.nz/2024/11/05/o...

Boosted 💉✔️

This is the same 2020 study you might have seen before, but it's true. I was gamely riding a lightweight street bike when and where I could, but it wasn't until I got an e-bike that the bike became my main means of transport.

Christchurch Conversion - Greater Auckland This is a Guest Post from Sara Templeton. Sara is the Councillor for the Heathcote ward in Christchurch. Eighteen months ago I was one of the many ‘interested but concerned’ when it came to cycling. I...

An ebike was my gateway bike back in 2015. I hadn't biked in years, but it quickly became my main transport for the 10km trip to work and I've never looked back. On my second ebike now (Linus Ember) and my eldest has my old Smartmotion eCity. www.greaterauckland.org.nz/2017/12/01/5...

Trains are struggling to get traction and the national network is old and in poor condition. Some focus on freight, but not really for passengers. Wellington has a good commuter train network and Auckland's is developing, but funding for Christchurch got canceled by current govt. 🫤

Reaching net zero by 2050 ‘cheaper for UK than one fossil fuel crisis’ Climate change committee finds move to renewable energy would also bring health, economic and security benefits

"Achieving the UK’s net zero target by 2050 will cost less than a single oil shock and bring health and economic benefits while insulating the country against future costs, the government’s climate advisers have forecast."

www.theguardian.com/environment/...

Important to note that our previous govt did value a transition to a low carbon economy and was actively working towards it. However, since late 2022, we've had a right leaning govt rolling back almost the progress at a fast rate and investing in fossil fuel dependency 🤦🏻‍♀️

With 90% renewable electricity, gas still sets the wholesale price 80% of the time. Fortunately, our domestic gas price isn't currently linked to international prices. IF we import LNG, that will mean that international prices flow through into our gas and hence our electricity prices.

Excellent thread. Remember these numbers for discussions in upcoming months.

Dawn Chorus: Luxon clings on as inflation shock looms Luxon won't resign after poll shock; Oil over US$90/bbl overnight; Petrol over NZ$3/l in some areas; Freight cost warning after diesel rises 44c/l; Pak n'Save buying US butter; Dialysis rationing

“Christchurch Hospital has started rationing dialysis to two sessions per week from three because of a Government-imposed sinking lid on spending to ensure Crown spending to GDP gets down below 30%, 1News reported last night” #nzpol

Former MP Jackie Blue quits National to join Opportunity party Jackie Blue says she can't stand by what the government has done to low-paid workers.

The Equal Pay Amendment Act 2025 was a hatchet job on 180,000 workers and is representative of a political system that lacks the courage and foresight New Zealand urgently needs."
She added: "I will never forget or forgive what this government has done to low-paid workers - mostly women." #nzpol

Ex-ACT staffer Grant McLachlan says party created fake grassroots groups Political pundits and media experts are warning that artificial grassroots organisations - nicknamed "astroturfs" - are being used to manipulate and mobilise public opinion for political gain.

“TPU did a lot of the groundwork for the party in the 2020 election with their Campaign for Affordable Housing to fight the Green Party's proposal for an asset tax.”

"So when they were saying 'This is a problem', it was actually a contrived problem that the ACT Party told them to create.” #nzpol

Keep going @nzpfu. its a dire emergency and FENZ knows it. Keep backing the fire fighters folks 🚒👨‍🚒🧯

NEW ANALYSIS: UK emissions fell 2.4% in 2025 as coal fell to a 400-year low. Incredibly, we used less coal last year than than in 1600, when Queen Elizabeth I was on the throne and Shakespeare was writing Hamlet.

All the details in our article: www.carbonbrief.org/...

Government pushed ahead with move‑on orders despite officials’ warnings Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith says officials did not support the new move‑on powers, but the Government proceeded, arguing New Zealanders want safer public spaces.

Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith says officials did not support the new move‑on powers, but the Government proceeded, arguing New Zealanders want safer public spaces.

Applies to Aotearoa NZ as well.

Conflict in Iran shows 'risk' of government's plan to import LNG as back-up to Taranaki facility Energy experts say an immediate leap in prices after US-Israeli strikes on Iran should prompt a re-think of the government's push to build an LNG import terminal.

So, $2.7b on a fossil gas terminal prone to geo political conflicts or $2.7b on building true resilience using solar, batteries 🔋 and some geothermal chucked in for good measure?
www.rnz.co.nz/news/politic...

I was born in an Iranian prison. My parents were held in their jails. My uncles lie in their mass graves. Nothing you can tell me about the crimes of the Iranian regime that I haven't lived in blood and bone. That doesn't mean I want my people bombed, maimed, killed, their homes in ruins. If your vision of liberation comes only through the destruction of innocent lives, then it's not freedom you're after. Sahar Delijani, Iranian author

I am pro Iranian people. I stand with them against their own government’s repression AND against the imperial violence in the form of bombs dropped from the sky from Israel & the US who have already killed hundreds.

I support neither imperialism or dictatorship.

Sahar Delijani said it best:

Greenpeace International response to OPEC+ oil output decision amid war on Iran and disruption in the Strait of Hormuz - Greenpeace International Today’s OPEC meeting makes one thing clear: as long as our world runs on oil and gas, our peace, security and our pockets will always be at the mercy of geopolitics. – Greenpeace International Executi...

“Today’s OPEC meeting makes one thing clear: as long as our world runs on oil and gas, our peace, security and our pockets will always be at the mercy of geopolitics.“

– Greenpeace International Executive Director Mads Christensen

#iran #fossilfuels #peace

A screen shot from Facebook of Ryan Hamilton holding a bucket and wearing a big, soliciting donations for the Heart Foundation outside Hillcrest New World.

The origins of the Move On orders are from Ham East National MP, Ryan Hamilton - former Hamilton City Councillor whose council colleagues are setting up bylaws of a $20,000 fine for basically being visibly homeless.

It begs the question, who's allowed to ask for money on the street and who isn't?

View from the top of Mt Herbert. Rolling hills slope down in the foreground. Beyond them you can see Lyttelton Harbour, the Port Hills, a glimpse of Christchurch City then the Southern Alps in the distance. Blue skies above with a few wispy clouds.

Brilliant day for an impromptu solo walk/slog up Mt Herbert - the highest point on Banks Peninsula at 919m (about the same as Arthur's Pass). Bus from town then a quick ferry trip to Diamond Harbour and lots of people had the same idea. So accessible by cheap public transport!

Safer Speeds Benefit Cost Ratios

This is a table showing the Benefit Cost Ratio of lowering speed limits just on their own. It has not factored walking or cycling benefit spins offs from this which would send the BCR higher

The table comes from AUSTROADS so it is Aussie and NZ relevant
Just dont tell Simeon Brown or Ryan Bridge

At the same time, they're consulting on 'pausing' the newly established Climate Resilience Fund - just a few days after a State of Emergency on Banks Peninsula 🤷‍♀️