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Phillips OBrien

@phillipspobrien

Professor of Strategic Studies, Author, Lover of Sicily. Purveyor of a “righteous-but-rational vibe”

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Latest posts by Phillips OBrien @phillipspobrien

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Trump tells CNN he’s not worried whether Iran becomes a democratic state | CNN Politics President Donald Trump told CNN Friday that Iran’s leadership has been “neutered” and that he’s looking for new leadership that will treat the United States and Israel well, even if that’s a religious...

Well, there might be no clear goal to the US attack on Iran, but there is definitely one thing that is not a goal--and that is democracy for Iran. www.cnn.com/2026/03/06/p...

07.03.2026 08:26 👍 168 🔁 60 💬 17 📌 6

Trump saying it is OK that Russia is helping Iran kill Americans has even the most MAGA-addled unable to respond. They have nowhere to go, except express blind loyalty to their master. If he says it, it must be right.

07.03.2026 08:14 👍 375 🔁 126 💬 25 📌 4

The White House position is that it is no big deal that Putin is helping Iran try to kill US soldiers.

Always remember rule #1. Putin can do no wrong in Trump’s eyes.

Wonder why that is?

06.03.2026 20:18 👍 1606 🔁 556 💬 70 📌 18

So Trump rolls out the red carpet for Putin, protects Putin, bullies the Ukrainians for Putin, and in return Putin helps Iranians kill Americans.

Trump must act now or the case for him being a Russian asset of some type will be undeniable.

06.03.2026 13:43 👍 387 🔁 120 💬 29 📌 5
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Analysis Suggests School Was Hit Amid U.S. Strikes on Iranian Naval Base

I do fear that grotesque boast that the USA no longer needed to worry about "stupid rules of engagement", will haunt the country for years to come.

www.nytimes.com/2026/03/05/w...

06.03.2026 13:18 👍 281 🔁 77 💬 12 📌 2

This is very good

06.03.2026 10:40 👍 63 🔁 13 💬 2 📌 0
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This is a real video from the official White House account on a war that is currently killing people. I don’t know how the US is going to come back from this.
The post was “JUSTICE THE AMERICAN WAY. 🇺🇸 🔥”

06.03.2026 08:22 👍 3269 🔁 1143 💬 688 📌 1202
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The Rot Is Real And There Is More To It The Atlantic Piece Just Scratched The Surface

Just sent out a free piece to expand on my article in @theatlantic.com yesterday. The signs of rot in US military and diplomatic capabilities are real and even more extensive than I could say in that article. Here are more-and a gift link to the original article. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

06.03.2026 10:40 👍 240 🔁 113 💬 19 📌 13

And now the USA is desperate for Ukrainian help because the Trump administration is incompetent in defense matters and Ukraine knows what it is doing.

Any chance Trump has the decency to say thanks?

06.03.2026 08:04 👍 285 🔁 34 💬 19 📌 0
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Zelensky highlighting the moral and strategic poverty of the USA under Trump. In the last year Trump has ended all military aid for Ukraine, has undermined Ukrainian air defense, has tried to bully Ukraine in handing over territory, and has rolled out the red carpet for Putin.

06.03.2026 08:04 👍 597 🔁 223 💬 23 📌 6

"In the third century, after the Roman empire had reached its geographic maximum, literacy began to decline across Roman society. Education levels fell not only among soldiers, but among officers, aristocrats, and even emperors."

Sounding familiar...

05.03.2026 20:22 👍 116 🔁 25 💬 3 📌 0

Fascinating on how (and maybe why) the US attack on Iran has faltered

05.03.2026 19:26 👍 86 🔁 9 💬 1 📌 0
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U.S. Capabilities Are Showing Signs of Rot When a military force begins to decline, the first symptoms may be subtle.

Latest in @theatlantic.com . In only a few days, there are small but worrying signs that the corruption and incompetence of the Trump administration is affecting US military and diplomatic power. A fish rots from the head down.

www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/0...

05.03.2026 19:20 👍 534 🔁 197 💬 10 📌 13

I mean, how else can he make sure to get some really big payoffs.

thehill.com/homenews/adm...

05.03.2026 18:37 👍 97 🔁 10 💬 2 📌 1
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$3.7 Billion: Estimated Cost of Epic Fury’s First 100 Hours Operation Epic Fury costs nearly $900 million per day, driven by the large expenditure of munitions. Because most of this is not in the budget, the Pentagon will soon need to ask for more money.

Operation Epic Fury costs nearly $900 million per day, driven by the large expenditure of munitions. Because most of this is not in the budget, the Pentagon will soon need to ask for more money.

Learn more from the CSIS Defense and Security Department: https://bit.ly/4bcz5uF

05.03.2026 17:43 👍 76 🔁 37 💬 5 📌 4

As per normal, air power is more difficult to use than people often think.

05.03.2026 11:24 👍 84 🔁 4 💬 1 📌 0
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What Is Iranian Air Power Strategy? What is Iran directly targeting, indirectly targeting, and can it succeed?

HI All, Just sent out this piece on Iranian air power strategy. It attempts to say what their strategy might be, based on what they are targeting and what systems they are using. As a strategy it is interesting, but is more likely to fail than succeed.

open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

05.03.2026 11:24 👍 110 🔁 35 💬 3 📌 0

"The oil is beginning to flow"

04.03.2026 22:50 👍 95 🔁 25 💬 4 📌 0

The TrumpAdmin is compromised by foreign intelligence, and belongs behind bars as traitors.

@European leaders: Act accordingly.

Not convinced bc I’m an activist? Well, read this from Kagan👇

@theatlantic.com

05.03.2026 08:12 👍 105 🔁 23 💬 3 📌 2
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For the last few days the President of the USA and the White House communications team have been active agents of Russian influence, spreading the Putin narrative and trying to undermine democracy.

05.03.2026 08:01 👍 907 🔁 295 💬 54 📌 16
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Ah, that well known constitutional amendment that says the USA can go to war for a feeling...

04.03.2026 21:16 👍 303 🔁 64 💬 20 📌 6
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This is what “regime change” means for Trump. No freedom for the Venezuelan, no democratic vote, just leave the old dictatorial system in place with most of the same people.

04.03.2026 21:05 👍 615 🔁 158 💬 35 📌 16

This whole Iranian misadventure was always going to be good for the Russian oil industry.

Must be a total coincidence, right?

04.03.2026 16:19 👍 98 🔁 31 💬 5 📌 2
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Russia says ready to ship 9.5 million oil barrels to India amid supply crisis India has witnessed a vulnerability in terms of its crude reserves, following the breakout of the Middle East crisis. At present, it has crude stocks covering 25 days of demand along with low inventor...

Remember when Trump promised that India would stop buying Russian oil? Well it turns out that Trump's decision to bomb Iran has had the exact opposite effect, leading to a surge of Russian oil being sent to India. www.indiatoday.in/india/story/...

04.03.2026 15:51 👍 599 🔁 214 💬 20 📌 12
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Maybe just maybe the Ukrainian policy of reducing the number of their troops on the front line was the right one and the Russian one of slaughtering their own population the wrong one.
Thankfully the Ukrainians did not listen to the terrible western analytic community on this.

04.03.2026 10:49 👍 648 🔁 157 💬 9 📌 3

Price of oil is up.
USA is running down stocks of Patriot Missiles.
European states are deploying force outside of Europe.

Yep, the only real winner so far from Trump's decision to bomb Iran is.....Vladimir Putin.

Funny that.

04.03.2026 10:12 👍 609 🔁 163 💬 29 📌 4

Goed punt!

04.03.2026 08:59 👍 147 🔁 28 💬 2 📌 0

To put it less kindly, they have it all ass-backwards

04.03.2026 08:36 👍 233 🔁 21 💬 7 📌 0

The willingness of major European states such as Britain and France to send their military forces to actively defend counties in the Middle East but not to defend Ukraine shows how Europe has a distorted sense of its own interests.

04.03.2026 08:35 👍 821 🔁 236 💬 35 📌 15
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The US/Israel Bombing of Iran--What We Are Seeing From An Air Power Perspective And What We Are Seeing From Iran

Hi All, Just put together this post. Its mostly a detailed update on what the US and Israel seem to be doing in their air campaign. Destroying things seem to be the easy part. Also an update on US war aims, we have about three new ones in the last 24 hours. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

03.03.2026 11:39 👍 140 🔁 36 💬 6 📌 1