Ilayda B. Onder's Avatar

Ilayda B. Onder

@ilaydaonder

Assistant Professor of Political Science at Texas A&M, studying political violence, civil conflict, and rebel organizations. https://www.ilaydaonder.com/

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02.09.2023
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Latest posts by Ilayda B. Onder @ilaydaonder

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Our latest publication with @markberlin2.bsky.social is out in @ispp-pops.bsky.social.

We examine what happens when armed groups deny responsibility for violence and find that denials can erode trust in government and shape how people feel about violence.

Read more here: doi.org/10.1111/pops...

28.10.2025 16:08 πŸ‘ 5 πŸ” 3 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Finn Klebe will be presenting our joint project that we’ve been developing over the past year. Join the panel tomorrow to hear about our dataset on defections across and co-membership among rebel and nonviolent resistance groups.

11.09.2025 04:26 πŸ‘ 5 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

We’re accepting submissions for Fall 2025 until August 14.

If you’re on the market, it’s a great chance to practice your job talk with an audience!

We also welcome paper presentations.

Apply here: iu.co1.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_...

22.07.2025 01:34 πŸ‘ 5 πŸ” 6 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

In our new article, we show that groups that claim credit for attacks have shorter lifespans. Not because of government crackdowns, but likely from internal breakdowns.

These findings raise questions about how state threats shape terrorist behavior and whether the logic of deterrence really holds.

22.05.2025 19:03 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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One of my recent articles has now been officially assigned page numbers in Journal of Conflict Resolution.

πŸ” Key finding: The spatial distribution of loyal, disloyal, and wavering rebel supporters explains who gets targeted and where.

Check it out here: doi.org/10.1177/0022...

25.02.2025 03:33 πŸ‘ 10 πŸ” 3 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Check out this new JoGSS article on rebel fragmentation!

Using the PKK in Turkey as a case study, @ulaserdogdu.bsky.social identifies two pathways to rebel fragmentation: democratization creating divides over armed struggle and foreign military intervention empowering rival groups.

05.12.2024 02:24 πŸ‘ 4 πŸ” 3 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Double trouble, couch snuggle…

24.11.2024 03:21 πŸ‘ 4 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Would like to be added, if possible!

17.11.2024 23:06 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Based on overwhelming community feedback (okay, 3 people), I’ve decided that @polviolencepapers.bsky.social will also cover new publications on political violence in addition to working papers.

Tag the account when sharing your new articles to help grow this space!

17.11.2024 20:51 πŸ‘ 6 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Thanks! Hope I can help it gain functionality

17.11.2024 20:21 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Resharing this for those who missed it last night. Follow @polviolencepapers.bsky.social and share if you think this could be a useful resource. I’m trying to assess interest in this initiative.

17.11.2024 17:02 πŸ‘ 5 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Follow the account and repost this if you’re interested! Tag @polviolencepapers.bsky.social when sharing your working paper on armed conflict, civil war, insurgency, terrorism, extremism, or post-conflict state/society to get it reposted.

17.11.2024 04:25 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

I’ve created @polviolencepapers.bsky.social to repost working papers on political violence. Since Bluesky doesn’t have a bookmark function yet, I thought we needed a dedicated space to store all those working papers often shared here.

17.11.2024 04:25 πŸ‘ 21 πŸ” 13 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 2

I'd love to be added in the list!

17.11.2024 03:01 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0
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Our article on the lasting impact of rebel governance on post-conflict state and citizens' perceptions of state institutions now has page numbers and is open-access in Comparative Political Studies.

Check out here: journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...

17.11.2024 02:59 πŸ‘ 17 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

We are now accepting proposals for this year's Junior Scholars in Quantitative Conflict Workshop.

Please share, apply, and volunteer, if you can, to serve as a discussant.

22.10.2024 20:39 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

I use an original dataset recording the specific characteristics of civilians targeted by the PKK’s coercive acts in Kurdish-majority provinces of Turkey to highlight individual or community-level characteristics of civilians, beyond ethnic or identity-cleavages, in rebel-civilian interactions.

20.06.2024 18:52 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

In this article, I introduce a new typology of rebel constituency members and examine how the subnational spatial distribution of rebel constituency members with varying levels of support for the government influence rebels' civilian victimization strategies.

20.06.2024 18:52 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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How Civilian Loyalties Shape Rebel-Led Victimization of Rebel Constituencies - Ilayda B. Onder, 2024 Rebels rely on the support of their civilian constituency, but often victimize them to enforce compliance. Scholars know relatively little about how rebels stra...

Excited to announce my new article, "How Civilian Loyalties Shape Rebel-Led Victimization of Rebel Constituencies," published in the Journal of Conflict Resolution! πŸŽ‰πŸ“š

doi.org/10.1177/0022...

20.06.2024 18:51 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
The Legacies of Rebel Rule in Southeast Turkey - Cyanne E. Loyle, Ilayda B. Onder, 2023 During armed conflict civilians often inhabit areas of contested governance or areas where rebel groups, NGOs, and/or criminal syndicates vie for authority and ...

New publication!

What is the long-term impact of rebel governance? We use survey data from Turkey to show that individual engagement with rebel governance institutions and personal conflict experience decrease future trust in the Turkish state.

journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....

27.02.2024 02:27 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

It has been official for a whileΒ butΒ I am happy to share that I will be joining the Department of Political Science at Texas A&M University as an Assistant Professor in Fall 2024. Thanks to everyone who has offered support throughout this process!

02.01.2024 16:21 πŸ‘ 8 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
Call for Applications: Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies, Columbia University, Postdoctora...

Polisky: please help us spread the word about the Saltzman Institute’s postdoc, and tell your best students to apply!

www.siwps.org/programs/cal...

04.12.2023 23:55 πŸ‘ 28 πŸ” 37 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 2

πŸŽ™οΈFYI @danigilbert.bsky.social also did an interview on the Politicology podcast talking about this piece and more on the hostage crisis: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/p...

15.10.2023 17:40 πŸ‘ 8 πŸ” 5 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Signaling Resolve through Credit-claiming What explains when militant groups claim attacks? In this study, I argue that militant groups are more likely to claim attacks early in the organization’s lifespan and after major blows to reputati....

My article titled "Signaling Resolve through Credit-Claiming" now has an issue number in International Interactions. I show that younger armed groups and groups that recently suffered leadership decapitation publicly claim more attacks to burnish their reputation. www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

07.10.2023 01:16 πŸ‘ 4 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

My analysis shows that even groups that initially favor targeting the security forces resort to civilian victimization to overcome the increased costs imposed by counterinsurgency measures.

28.09.2023 01:37 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Target Hardening and Non-State Armed Groups’ Target Selection: Evidence from India This study explores the variation in the non-state armed group (NSAGs)'s behavior concerning target selection. Scholars of transnational terrorism have investigated transnational NSAGs' target sele...

🚨New Publication🚨

My article is published online in Terrorism and Political Violence. Using original data on the counterinsurgency capacity of the Indian police, I show that militants switch to targeting civilians when faced with harsh counterinsurgency measures.
www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1...

28.09.2023 01:30 πŸ‘ 4 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

@profmusgrave.bsky.social can I be added to the Polisky feed?

25.09.2023 04:01 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Honestly, this website could use some enhancements. We're still missing bookmarking and the ability to save draft posts for later sharing. I feel like if folks are going to use this platform for meaningful exchange of ideas/information, bookmarks are a must.

24.09.2023 23:48 πŸ‘ 5 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Thank you!

21.09.2023 03:01 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0