I keep talking about estimands and people usually politely nod and say "yes, of course, research questions needs to be articulated clearly."
But actually I think I might have to make my demand more explicit: Actually spell out the (factual or counterfactual) variables and worlds you're contrasting!
We are pleased to announce that the Paul Meehl Graduate School is launching the PMGS Dissertation Award, recognizing outstanding PhD dissertations that advance meta-research.
See the eligibility criteria and apply before June 1st, 2026 at:
paulmeehlschool.github.io/award/
2) We found a consistent in-group bias across orientations. We hope this supports reflection on prejudices and fosters communication. Plus it was great collaborating with co-authors from many orientations.
1) We surveyed 586 psychotherapists. Using the Stereotype Content Model, they rated therapists from their own vs. other orientations on warmth and competence.
Just out in @clinpsycheurope.bsky.social New paper led by @johanna.schroeder.bsky.social
cpe.psychopen.eu/index.php/cp...
Our crowdsourced megastudy comparing a diverse set of 12 single-session interventions for depression is out today in @nathumbehav.nature.com!
Read the full paper here: rdcu.be/e6pzz (no paywall)
We also published a brief non-academic piece about the study today: theconversation.com/free-10-minu...
some resources for cognitive scientists — especially for junior scholars who ask me wonderful questions and want to learn more — on theorising and metatheorising olivia.science/theory/ (not 100% finished & more to come, but all my work is freely available here: olivia.science#publications as usual)
New paper out in Science Advances! I'm really (really) proud of this one. Let's get into it. doi.org/10.1126/scia...
In support of #OpenScience, we routinely ask authors to openly share their #research #code before publication.
We are now formalizing this practice with a mandatory #CodeSharing policy and clarifying what we mean by code sharing.
📣 Calling: Alle Eltern
Wir planen psychotherapeutische Gruppen für Eltern von Säuglingen mit Regulationsschwierigkeiten, um zu entlasten & stärken.
Sagt uns, was ihr euch wünschen würdet:
www.soscisurvey.de/saeuglingsgr...
Danke fürs Mitmachen & Teilen! 🙏✨
@tudresden.bsky.social
People all too often forget about these people without which the AI "boom " could not happen. 😭
Tomorrow talk (hosted by University of Cambridge/CPFT Lunchtime Psychiatry Seminars) with R. Lyus and @ploederl.bsky.social will explore how a single “zombie” trial can meaningfully influence network meta-analyses and, in turn, shape clinical guidelines on antidepressant use in adolescents.
Two bar graphs compare changes in CES-D scores between SBMT and TAU interventions using a causal forest model and an elastic net regression model. The causal forest model shows a d=0.07, P=.007 for SBMT and d=-0.01, P=.82 for TAU.
Machine learning analyses in the MYRIAD trial found only clinically trivial personalization of school-based mindfulness for adolescent #Depression prevention, underscoring limited differential benefit in universal programs.
ja.ma/3OkeH2P
#ketamine #esketamine
Folks, some news. No, not that kind of news – what do you think this is, LinkedIn? It's this:
1. The applied causal graphs workshop deadline is 28th Feb. so get your abstracts in and hang out with us in Potsdam this May. Form and description is below
2. @dagophile.bsky.social is giving a keynote 🥳
#AffectSci
1/ New collab from @sadcatlab.bsky.social, OSU, UPenn, and UMSL! This is a multi-site RCT (N=453) comparing a free digital single session intervention (SSI) for students: COMET. TL; DR COMET works for depression and anxiety, less so for well-being/positive emotions
osf.io/preprints/ps...
Feb 24, 2026 Methods Talk: Inference on local variable importance measures for heterogeneous treatment effects
The Methods Series @ki.se continues in 2 weeks!
@pawelmorzywolek.bsky.social presents, "Inference on local variable importance measures for heterogeneous treatment effects."
📆 Feb 24, 2026
⏰ 15.00 CET/9.00 EST
📍 Online or In-Person
Register:
stats.sender.net/forms/e7JD1d...
It must be very hard to publish null results Publication practices in the social sciences act as a filter that favors statistically significant results over null findings. While the problem of selection on significance (SoS) is well-known in theory, it has been difficult to measure its scope empirically, and it has been challenging to determine how selection varies across contexts. In this article, we use large language models to extract granular and validated data on about 100,000 articles published in over 150 political science journals from 2010 to 2024. We show that fewer than 2% of articles that rely on statistical methods report null-only findings in their abstracts, while over 90% of papers highlight significant results. To put these findings in perspective, we develop and calibrate a simple model of publication bias. Across a range of plausible assumptions, we find that statistically significant results are estimated to be one to two orders of magnitude more likely to enter the published record than null results. Leveraging metadata extracted from individual articles, we show that the pattern of strong SoS holds across subfields, journals, methods, and time periods. However, a few factors such as pre-registration and randomized experiments correlate with greater acceptance of null results. We conclude by discussing implications for the field and the potential of our new dataset for investigating other questions about political science.
I have a new paper. We look at ~all stats articles in political science post-2010 & show that 94% have abstracts that claim to reject a null. Only 2% present only null results. This is hard to explain unless the research process has a filter that only lets rejections through.
🚨SOLUTIONS🚨
Desk reject more stuff with actionable feedback.
Don’t request second reviews
Build larger editorial boards of volunteers
Wait to submit your work until it’s ready; a.k.a don’t send in your half-baked trash hoping for feedback
6/7
Universität in D ist, wenn alle in 1 künstlichen Hyperwettbewerb immense Zeit/Energie/Ressourcen verballern, um ‚exzellent’ zu werden, während man die, die am Limit ihrer Kräfte in Lehre/Forschung/Admin universitären Regelbetrieb so gerade am Laufen halten, ohne Rücksicht auf Verluste zusammenkürzt.
Please join us in person or online @lshtm-dash.bsky.social on 26th February to hear about @georgiatomova.bsky.social's recent work on 'How can different modes of survey data collection introduce bias?'
www.lshtm.ac.uk/newsevents/e...
First post of the year, new paper out today: we present possibly the biggest case of systematic Measurement Schmeasurement in tech use. It seems that most studies on gaming (videogame) addiction/disorder haven't measured gaming after all. This research took years, so long 🧵 doi.org/10.1098/rsos...
The Future of DSM: A Strategic Vision for Incorporating Socioeconomic, Cultural, and Environmental Determinants and Intersectionality | American Journal of Psychiatry psychiatryonline.org/doi/10.1176/...
![3-panel comic. (1) [Three small arthropods on ocean floor.] ARTHROPOD 1: Now that we’re multicellular, what are your plans? I’m gonna evolve little legs and swim around with them! ARTHROPOD 2: I’m gonna evolve sharp pincers and use them to crunch stuff! ARTHROPOD 3: I’m gonna evolve glands to make string from my butt and use it to construct elaborate geometric nets hundreds of times my size to catch other animals. (2) [Silence] (3) ARTHROPOD 1: *Dude.* ARTHROPOD 2: Can you *please* just be normal about this? ARTHROPOD 3: *What??!*](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:cz73r7iyiqn26upot4jtjdhk/bafkreia3p425asp237hjolbn5lly6g6hzm2eoygqjpkd5dii6zrwqnp7qi@jpeg)
3-panel comic. (1) [Three small arthropods on ocean floor.] ARTHROPOD 1: Now that we’re multicellular, what are your plans? I’m gonna evolve little legs and swim around with them! ARTHROPOD 2: I’m gonna evolve sharp pincers and use them to crunch stuff! ARTHROPOD 3: I’m gonna evolve glands to make string from my butt and use it to construct elaborate geometric nets hundreds of times my size to catch other animals. (2) [Silence] (3) ARTHROPOD 1: *Dude.* ARTHROPOD 2: Can you *please* just be normal about this? ARTHROPOD 3: *What??!*
Early Arthropods
xkcd.com/3199/
Maybe obvious, but please don't use so-called AI tools for research if you don't know what AI or tool are. Nothing good will come of this.
Also when I and Iris wrote this it was 3 months ago, a long time in the nonsense hype world 🫨, and still it's not openly discussed this is undoing all the 2010s open science movement
bsky.app/profile/oliv...
Great work. I would love to see a replication of this for European countries. Anglo-Saxon academia is famously classist.
“They cut speed limits, changed street design, removed space for cars… Now it appears that work is paying off. #Oslo & #Helsinki are reaping the rewards of committed action on making their roads safer, reducing pedestrian fatalities to zero last year.” #VisionZero #SpeedKills
#nocutsinhessen & #nocuts nirgendwo, sondern strukturelle Lösungen für strukturelle Probleme!
Kommt zum #hochschulaktionstag morgen und seid laut für bessere Arbeits-, Forschungs- und Studienbedingungen!
