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Kristian Åtland

@atlandkristian

Senior Research Fellow at the Norwegian Defence Research Establishment (FFI) and Adjunct Professor at Nord University. Security issues and IR theory; Russia, Ukraine, Arctic, Baltic, Black Sea. Views my own.

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21.11.2024
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Latest posts by Kristian Åtland @atlandkristian

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The corresponding PRIP (coastal warning) says "artillery fires".

17.02.2026 12:17 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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Another Russian NOTAM event in the Varangerfjord area, not far from the Norwegian-Russian sea border, active February 17-18. Have seen a few of these in recent years.

17.02.2026 11:51 👍 8 🔁 1 💬 1 📌 0
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Russian Space Forces Kosmos (Unknown Payload) Soyuz 2.1a/Fregat-M Rocket Launch Unknown classified payload(s) for the Russian military.

Could be related the upcoming launch of a Soyuz rocket from Plesetsk. www.spacelaunchschedule.com/launch/soyuz...

01.02.2026 14:44 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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Space-related Russian NOTAM area northeast of Bear Island. Dates are February 2-12. We have had similar events in the past.

30.01.2026 08:35 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
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Norway reaches 2026 fisheries agreement with Russia, cod quota at lowest level since 1991 Dec 18 (Reuters) - Norway has reached a fisheries agreement with Russia for 2026, setting the Northeast Arctic cod quota at its lowest level since 1991 to ensure sustainable management of fish stocks,
18.12.2025 20:05 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire Negotiations: Lessons from the Failed Minsk Process Since the start of Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine in February 2022, numerous efforts have been made to forge a diplomatic path towards peace. So far, these efforts have failed to produce a po...

New policy brief in the Nord series. @hgir.bsky.social

18.12.2025 19:02 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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​Why Damaged russian Kilo-Class Submarine Is Effectively a Total Loss | Defense Express Critical damage to russia's Project 636.3 submarine in Novorossiysk leaves russia with no realistic repair options in the Black Sea
16.12.2025 09:16 👍 4 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0
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[1/2] Three area closures for SS-N-23 SKIFF (Sineva) submarine-launched ballistic missile launch are in effect on 20-24 & 28 October 2025 (05:00-17:00 daily)

18.10.2025 15:55 👍 8 🔁 1 💬 1 📌 2
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Estonia maps Russian MiG-31 route after Moscow claims neutral waters flight - Euromaidan Press Three Russian MiG-31 interceptors spent 12 minutes inside Estonian airspace with their transponders switched off, prompting Tallinn to release flight path evidence after the Kremlin denied any border ...
22.09.2025 08:18 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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Russia delivers a fishing ultimatum to Norway Moscow threatens to close Russian waters to Norwegian fishing vessels if Oslo does not reconsider its sanctions against the companies Norebo and Murman Seafood. The conflict threatens to undermine the...
28.08.2025 08:51 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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Russian Easter vodka binges delayed Ukraine’s covert bomber-killing drone strike, SBU reveals - Euromaidan Press Ukraine's Security Service head just explained exactly how Ukraine had smuggled attack drones into Russia and hit four military bases simultaneously in their most audacious operation yet.

New details about Operation Spider Web.

20.08.2025 07:25 👍 2 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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Vladimir Socor - Wikipedia

Very sorry to hear about the passing of Vladimir Socor (1945-2025). His recent analyses of the Ukraine ceasefire negotiations were nothing short of brilliant. He will be missed.

14.08.2025 07:08 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 2
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How to Negotiate with Moscow Based on Experience of a Ukrainian Diplomat We are publishing this piece because Roman Bezsmertny is a Ukrainian diplomat who participated in nearly 60 rounds of talks with Russian representatives during the Minsk peace process. His experience ...

"Russia, similar to the Soviet Union before it, sees diplomacy as a tool in its arsenal of war."

13.08.2025 06:04 👍 2 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0
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A corner of NATO where Lenin presides Barentsburg, a Russian-run company town in Arctic Norway, could become a geopolitical headache

A bust of Lenin glowers over the square. Public signs are in Cyrillic script and the Russian flag flaps from buildings. This spot in Norway is a geopolitical quirk—for the West it could become a headache

12.08.2025 05:20 👍 15 🔁 1 💬 2 📌 0
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Where in Alaska will Trump and Putin meet? History offers some clues U.S. presidents have met world leaders in Alaska airports twice before.
12.08.2025 07:05 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

The corresponding coastal warning (PRIP) for the Murmansk region says "MISSILE FIRINGS 20 TO 21 JUN".

19.06.2025 09:26 👍 2 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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Outsized Climate Change Will Shape Russian Politics Executive Summary: Russia is warming 2.7 times faster than the global average due to positive feedback loops resulting from Russia’s distinct geography, with alarming consequences for Arctic infrastru...
18.06.2025 06:39 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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Confirmed: Russian bombers were armed with cruise missiles and poised to bomb Ukrainian cities when they were destroyed by Ukrainian drones in Sunday’s audacious airbase attacks

04.06.2025 17:17 👍 14 🔁 3 💬 1 📌 0
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The Russian MoD has now also confirmed the Ukrainian strikes.

However, they claim that the Ukrainians only succeeded in Olenya and Belaya - they say strikes in Ivanovo, Ryazan (Dyagilevo) and Amur were repelled. They didn't specify the amount or types of aircraft lost. 1/

01.06.2025 16:23 👍 115 🔁 14 💬 3 📌 0
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Massive drone attacks on Olenya airbase, fire reported Social media videos show how several drones were launched from a truck near a gas station on the main road next to Olenya air base on the Kola Peninsula. Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) confirms that...
01.06.2025 12:40 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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The U.S. Reinforces Europe’s Northern Front, Fearing War With Russia The U.S. military has doubled down in Northern Europe in a quest to make NATO more lethal.

The U.S. military is doubling down in Northern Europe in a quest to make NATO more lethal.

27.05.2025 13:00 👍 18 🔁 6 💬 4 📌 2
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Lively outside Andøya today. Looks like "Formidable Shield" is in progress, featuring a series of live-fire events in the coming days. Participating nations are Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Italy, The Netherlands, Norway, Spain, U.K., and US. More info at www.c6f.navy.mil/Press-Room/N...

05.05.2025 13:24 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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Scoop: Trump envoy’s conflict of interest: a Russia-linked business partner Steve Witkoff, Trump's Special Envoy, has a serious and unreported conflict of interest in Russia-Ukraine negotiations: his relationship with Ukraine-sanctioned businessman Len Blavatnik.

"(...) can Trump’s envoy, with business ties to a billionaire who built his wealth in Russia and is sanctioned by Ukraine, serve as a genuinely neutral mediator in peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine?"

23.04.2025 07:45 👍 2 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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Russerne som ikke vil ha våpenhvile: – Vil bare gi Ukraina et pusterom Legger ikke press på Vladimir Putin.
12.04.2025 06:25 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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Russia Uses Black Sea Ceasefire Talks to Regain Former Hegemony Executive Summary: The Black Sea is the only theater in which Ukraine is prevailing over Russia in the ongoing war. The Kremlin regards the U.S.-brokered, deadline-driven ceasefire talks as an opportu...

"Moscow regards a Black Sea ceasefire as an opportunity to reverse Ukraine’s successes in the maritime war" (Valdimir Socor).

11.04.2025 06:33 👍 6 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0
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Putin vil skape arktisk eventyr for Russland: – Har store ambisjoner Arktis hetes opp for stormaktspolitikk. Putin vil ruste opp og øke Russlands militære tilstedeværelse. Men det blir ingen enkel oppgave.
05.04.2025 12:37 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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U.S. Preemptive Concessions Gain Nothing From Russia in Ukraine Ceasefire Talks (Part Two) (Part One) Executive Summary: Moscow is drawing Washington into an incremental, conditions-tied process, instead of a quick and unconditional ceasefire in Russia’s war against Ukraine. The U.S. White ...

Another good analysis by Vladimir Socor:
"Moscow should be aware that any easing of sanctions by Washington would hardly benefit Russia, as long as the European Union continues to maintain these same sanctions."

02.04.2025 06:21 👍 1 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0
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Moscow Has Everything to Gain and Little to Lose From Black Sea Ceasefire Moscow’s attitude is that the Americans need a ceasefire more than Russia does, so let them put in all the effort.
01.04.2025 07:19 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

Putin driver et narrespill, om noen skulle være i tvil om det.

31.03.2025 16:09 👍 4 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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Slik trener kystjegerkommandoen opp de ukrainske dødsenglene Podcast Episode · Forsvarspodden · 03/26/2025 · 18m

Podcast (in Norwegian).

27.03.2025 08:42 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0