What an excellent review - hope the rest of the run goes well!
06.03.2026 09:35
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What an excellent review - hope the rest of the run goes well!
Basically yes - you can see OBR forecasting rent growth being faster than earnings growth by looking at rents in the Q2 2026 to Q2 2029 in OBR economy table 1.7 and compare that with average weekly earnings growth in table 1.6. And net earnings growth is dampened by fiscal drag.
Rising housing costs is the main reason - across all incomes terciles.
Speedy analysis from @jrf-uk.bsky.social . This is how modelled household incomes evolve over the Parliament after deducting housing costs. It's a disappointing picture. Let's hope the Government beat the forecasts, although the headwinds from the current conflict shouldn't be underestimated.
Pleased to talk through @jrf-uk.bsky.social evidence on the impact on society of the pandemic today at @ukcovid-19inquiry.bsky.social. We need to learn from people's insight and lived experience, and I want to thank everyone we worked with or who provided info during extraordinarily stressful times.
Following #UKPoverty2026, more warning signs flashing. As well as describing problem of insufficient income from work, the Minimum Income Standard helps the solution as the key data source for the Real Living Wage @livingwageuk.bsky.social. Even with falling inflation, costs continue to bite.
Do send in any questions - we have an excellent team of analysts ready to answer any questions you have!
You can probably tell this isn't my natural forte (!), but we wanted to get the message out about how action is needed to lower poverty levels in the UK. If you want to hear more (including from me), join our webinar at 10.30: www.jrf.org.uk/events/uk-po....
One of the highlights of this and previous years' reports was working with the Grassroots Poverty Action Group. It's important to hear real stories and struggles, and not just reduce this to a commentary on statistics, up or down. Policies and decisions have real impacts!
This was an enormous amount of work from folk across
@jrf-uk.bsky.social and beyond. Do engage with the content and let us know what you think.
New DWP forecasts show that spending on working-age social security is expected to be stable over the rest of the parliament at 5.1% of GDP
This is a slight increase from the Spring, but is mainly for welcome reasons like removing the two-child limit and reversing some of the cuts put forward then
"That would mean the single greatest fall [in child poverty] in one Parliament since records began." Look at how this Parliament could compare to previous ones back to 1964. An excellent foundation to build from, as @katieschmuecker.bsky.social says.
Scrapping 2-child limit is great, but other Govt changes are terrible: by 2029/30, 750k new claimants miss out on ~£3,000 a year because of UC health changes, but OBR says this will lead to only a 26k rise in employment, so for 97% of newly sick people it's a straight cut.
All being well, I should be on @itvnews.bsky.social Calendar in Yorkshire this evening, to talk about Budget measures. DYK the number of children benefitting from the scrapping the 2-child limit in South Yorkshire alone would more than fill Brammall Lane (or Hillsborough if you prefer!)
We don't - and there are two effects: larger families already affected by the cap don't gain, and some gaining families won't see the full increase because they will come up against the cap. Looking at www.gov.uk/government/s..., just under half of capped families in May 2025 had 3+ kids (~60k).
Why does @jrf-uk.bsky.social show a fall while OBR shows a rise in living standards? See jrf.org.uk/cost-of-livi... for an explainer, and this is my latest version comparing like with like, with both series showing a disappointing profile before taking account of rising housing costs.
See gov.uk/government/p... for the DWP analysis and look out for @jrf-uk.bsky.social analysis on overall living standards shortly, showing there is more to do to tackle this more broadly.
DWP modelling show a fall of 400,000 over the current Parliament. This would be the biggest on record, exceeding falls of 300,000 under the first Government of Tony Blair and the Government of Harold Wilson and James Callaghan.
Chancellor said lifting 2-child limit means "Biggest reduction in child poverty over a Parliament since records began." Estimated 400k reduction would be, but modelling is always uncertain. What is certain is that removing the 2 Child Limit is pivotal to the fall.
Between 2011/12 and 2023/24, child poverty rose by 900,000 in total. This is entirely due to increases in poverty in families with three or more children, with a small fall in poverty for smaller families over the period.
A child poverty strategy with the 2-child limit in place would *not* be a credible child poverty strategy. *All* of the growth in child poverty since the 2011/12 low point is for children in scope of this policy.
Congratulations - this has been very useful
With earnings barely increasing, many families are likely to experience mounting financial pressures, eroding living standards.
Weak real earnings growth will be particularly concerning for lower-income households. Inflation remains above the Bank of England’s target, with food and housing costs continuing to rise faster than the overall price level.
A chart showing how regular wages are growing after taking account of inflation. The first few months of the period starting September 2023 showed relatively slow growth, but there was consistent growth between February 2024 and September 2024, meaning wages grew by 2.4% over the year. This latter period is in contrast to the period starting September 2024, where growth has hovered around zero, ending up as an increase of just 0.4%.
Slightly higher earnings growth in latest month of data means real earnings are up 0.4% on the year to Sept 25, equating to £2.20 a week, a huge contrast to the previous 12-month period where growth was more than 5 times higher at 2.4%, £11.60 after inflation.
We need an independent process to advise on a standard allowance rate that reflects what people need to afford the essentials, and for rates to quickly move towards that level.
A chart showing how far the Universal Credit Standard Allowance rate for singles lag behind levels needed for essentials. The gap is still over £20 a week after April 2026, equating to an annual gap of over £1,000.
A chart showing how far the Universal Credit Standard Allowance rate for couples lag behind levels needed for essentials. The gap is still over £50 a week after April 2026, equating to an annual gap of over £2,500.
The annual gap still likely to be more than £1,000 for singles and £2,500 for couples. Look at how little next year’s increase moves rates towards a level that enables people to afford the essentials.
This means the standard allowance is set to rise from £92 to £98 per week for singles and from £145 to £154 per week for couples. However it will remain below the level needed to afford a basic basket of essentials.
We learnt today that annual CPI inflation was 3.8% in September 2025. The Universal Credit Act 2025 increases the rate of the standard allowance in Universal Credit by 2.3% after applying this inflation, meaning an increase of around 6.2% in April 2026.
Thanks Noah, but I'm looking at UK not US earnings - see www.ons.gov.uk/employmentan... for the official data I am using.
A chart showing how regular wages are growing after taking account of inflation. The first few months of the period starting September 2023 showed relatively slow growth, but there was consistent growth between February 2024 and September 2024, meaning wages grew by 2.4% over the year. This latter period is in contrast to the period starting September 2024, where growth has hovered around zero. Between September 2023 and August 2024, wages grew 2.1%, but in the same period a year later, they grew just 0.2%.
We are still at near zero real earnings growth since Sept 2024, 11th month in row. We had a very small rise in earnings in August 2025 on previous month, leaving earnings up just 0.2% on Sept 2024.