Rachel Rizzo

Will Delhi Love Me Back? And other musings on expectations

On my upcoming move to New Delhi (more on that soon!), what happens when our expectations clash with reality, and whether a city can ever reciprocate the love we feel for it. 👇🏼

open.substack.com/pub/rachelri...

Earlier this week, @cooleyoneurasia.bsky.social, @lianafix.bsky.social, @elenalaz.bsky.social, @rachelrizzo.bsky.social, and @leslievinjamuri.bsky.social discussed how the war in Ukraine has reshaped European geopolitics, global power dynamics, and the future of warfare. brnw.ch/21wWUZB

Grrrr Professional**

Thank you!!

DC: the City of Fractal Success On the professional climb to nowhere

Most of the time I write about foreign policy. Sometimes I write about Washington, DC and the relentless progressional climb to nowhere.

open.substack.com/pub/rachelri...

The State of the Transatlantic Alliance US-EU relations face turbulence under Trump 2.0. Learn how trade, security, and digital policy shifts are redefining the Transatlantic partnership.

Read the full report here! www.orfonline.org/research/the...

3) shift toward cultural confrontationalism: The "New Right" in the US will prioritise ideological alignment & views European liberalism as a threat to American values. This could fundamentally redefine the relationship from one of alliance management to one of civilizational competition.

2) The Europeanisation of NATO: Europe will (and should) continue to pursue the only rational course for itself, which is using increased defence spending to build domestic capabilities that reduce reliance on American systems. This is in Europe’s vital interest regardless of America's reliability.

1) Trade wars and changing alliances: The long-term result of Trump’s economic warfare (especially toward Europe) will be the emergence of a more multipolar world where middle powers gain, and the US loses, leverage. This reality is still under-appreciated in Washington policymaking circles.

Thrilled to contribute to a new report on the state of the Transatlantic relationship for ORF. In my chapter, "An American Perspective on the Transatlantic Partnership," I highlight a few likely outcomes for US-European relations given the Trump Administration's current approach. 👇

Read the full range of expert views on the links above, including @susmonika.bsky.social @kjmcinnis1.bsky.social @tobiasbunde.bsky.social @annwieanna.bsky.social @sophiabesch.bsky.social @rachelrizzo.bsky.social @jteurope.bsky.social @erikbrattberg.bsky.social

Thanks Tony!

It was a pleasure to join Geeta Guru-murthy on the BBC this evening to… | Rachel Rizzo It was a pleasure to join Geeta Guru-murthy on the BBC this evening to discuss the U.S. approach to Russia’s war in Ukraine, how the U.S. administration might turn up the pressure on Putin, and what G...

@rachelrizzo.bsky.social delivers strategic clarity to BBC's global audience on U.S.-Ukraine policy & Germany's weapons decision. Principled, evidence-based analysis our complex world demands. 🇺🇸🇺🇦​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ #ProudlyTruman
www.linkedin.com/posts/rachel...

Europe watches warily as Meloni meets with Trump Italy’s leader wouldn’t be the EU’s first choice to negotiate with Trump. But she might be its only choice.

“They get along, she and Elon Musk get along. I think that means she can speak a Trumpian sort of language that many other European leaders simply can’t,” @rachelrizzo.bsky.social tells @politico.com.

My thoughts to @politico.com ahead of Meloni’s visit to Washington 👇🏼

Especially in terms of its relationship with the European Union, its role in the Quad, economic connectivity projects like IMEC, security and defense policy, and more. As always, I leave with new insights and can’t wait to return—hopefully sooner rather than later.

I’m leaving my tenth (!!) trip to India with my mind and heart full. the consistent quality of the Raisina Dialogue never ceases to amaze me. As the Trump Administration drastically shifts U.S. foreign policy, this really feels like a huge moment for in India…

Conference selfie at Raisina dialogue. With Maha Yahya @carnegiemec.bsky.social, @rachelrizzo.bsky.social, Kristina Kausch @gmfus.bsky.social, Manuel Muniz, Romana Vlahutin and of course my NATO bestie Benedetta Berti

Europe and Trump 2.0: An era of insular geopolitics? Trump’s second term is reshaping US-European relations, shifting security burdens, challenging NATO commitments, and pressuring Europe on defense spending and China policy.

Thanks to the Observer Research Foundation for letting me contribute a piece to this year’s Raisina Edit, a collection of essays based on pillars of the 2025 Raisina Dialogue. In it, I talk about how Trump will reshape Transatlanticism under new rules & expectations
www.orfonline.org/expert-speak...

Donald Trump isn’t only an American phenomenon at this point! Most European countries are dealing with their own version of this at this point.

So in that sense, I’m hopeful that if we can get over this time of turbulence, and Europe (the EU specifically!) is able to emerge as a much more capable security and defense player, then this will ultimately be good for the Transatlantic partnership in the long-term.

Those of us who believe in Transatlanticism are horrified at what we’re seeing. But at the same time, many of us also think the changes happening in European defense should’ve started happening this seriously a long time ago.

Speaking for myself, I wrote this because I believe in NATO and transatlantic relationship, not because I want a US-European divorce. But in order for the relationship to be healthy it needs to be more equal. And for it to be more equal requires Europe to become self-sufficient.

But the ideas in the piece still stand: the EU stepping up to play a greater role in procuring and mobilizing European defense resources. And Europe preparing for an eventual decrease in U.S. force presence on the continent. Maybe even a European SACEUR at some point.

Europeanize NATO to save it If the alliance is to reach its century mark, the transatlantic partners must shift much of the responsibility of continental security to Europeans themselves.

In June 2024, I wrote this piece with Michael Benhamou for Defense One: “Europeanize NATO to save it.” We lay out a 25-year plan to shift much of Europe’s continental security to the Europeans themselves. Obviously that timeline has been moved WAY up…

www.defenseone.com/ideas/2024/0...

With US joining Russia to block UN Ukraine vote it is even more important to understand where Germany will go. Come join us tomorrow at 12:30 to debrief on the German election w/ @rachelrizzo.bsky.social @johannaroth.bsky.social @majidsattar.bsky.social
www.eventbrite.com/e/panel-on-t...

Interested in German politics and in DC? Please come to debrief the election on Tuesday Feb 25 12:30 with an amazing panel:
@rachelrizzo.bsky.social
@johannaroth.bsky.social
@majidsattar.bsky.social
www.eventbrite.com/e/panel-on-t...

Europe is cautiously optimistic about Trump’s Ukraine comments The new president is eager to strike a deal on Ukraine. Greenland and tariffs are causing more heartburn.

@rachelrizzo.bsky.social 100% correct that we have to remember that Trump doesn't see Putin as a fundamental threat to European security or US interests. As such, curbing the threat from Russia is unlikely to be part of his "peace" plan.

www.politico.com/news/2025/01...

Why a deal between Space X and the Italian government has become so controversial In Italy, questions swirl around a possible deal between Elon Musk's Space X company and the far-right government.

NPR's Ruth Sherlock on the Musk/Starlink in Italy story (feat. @rachelrizzo.bsky.social).

I suspect, however, that one important factor in the Meloni government's decision is an attempt sidestep US pressure on Italy's anemic (1.5% of GDP) defense spending.

www.npr.org/transcripts/...

Everything you need to know about Trump’s Greenland gambit The incoming US president is adamant in his desire to acquire Greenland for the United States, which has angered Denmark and other US allies.

Can Donald Trump actually buy Greenland? And, uh, what does Greenland think about this? We answer these questions and more in our @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social #Greenland primer!

www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-at...