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Jonathan Erdman

@wxjerdman

Senior meteorologist @weatherchannel. M.S. Colorado State Univ.; B.S. UW-Madison; Insightful. Interesting. Impactful. Weather. Opinions are mine only, not of my employer.

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Latest posts by Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman

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Wonder what negative rainfall means?

Just stronger evapotranspiration than average? πŸ˜†

06.03.2026 11:56 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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On This Date: The Only March Hurricane On Record | Weather.com Not every single Atlantic hurricane has fallen within hurricane season. This early 20th century even is probably the most bizarre example.

On this date: the only known March hurricane (or tropical cyclone) on record in the Atlantic Basin.

And it wasn't a "fish storm", either.

06.03.2026 11:49 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Melissa joined quite a list of retired M storms, all since 1995:

Milton 2024 (tied strongest Gulf)
Michael 2018 (Cat. 5 Fla. Panhandle)
Maria 2017 (PR catastrophe)
Matthew 2016 (Haiti catastrophe)
Michelle 2001 (Cat 4 Cuba)
Mitch 1998 (C. America; 9,000+ killed)
Marilyn 1995 (PR, VI billion $)

04.03.2026 17:31 πŸ‘ 6 πŸ” 5 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 2
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The 100 Retired Atlantic Hurricane Names Since 1954 | Weather.com They're the worst storms the Atlantic Basin has generated since the mid-20th century. This "Hall of Infamy" is a list of names no longer used for current or future storms after one version was so dead...

The full list of Atlantic hurricane names retired since 1954.

One letter leads them all.

04.03.2026 17:15 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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US severe convective storm (SCS) activity to ramp up. The Storm Prediction Center already flags 4 of the next 8 days with likely activity.

Outbreaks starting in March have accounted for a notable portion of annual SCS losses for insurers:

2020: 12%
2021: 12%
2022: 9%
2023: 20%
2024: 15%
2025: 26%

04.03.2026 13:43 πŸ‘ 21 πŸ” 12 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 1
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Classic "spring warmth tease" next week, followed by a reality check.

04.03.2026 11:29 πŸ‘ 6 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Parts of the Plains will have severe weather fatigue today - Tuesday. #rinserepeat

04.03.2026 10:59 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Where we are in SPC's new intensity forecasts for Day 3 (Friday). Mention of "strong tornadoes" (EF2+) possible in hatched CIG1 area.

04.03.2026 09:36 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

And a shoutout to March 2022. which was the March tornado leader in the U.S. before last year's preliminary count.

03.03.2026 16:23 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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On This Date: Jackson, Mississippi, Struck By F5 Tornado | Weather.com It's not too early in the year for violent tornadoes. Such was the case 60 years ago in this capital city. Here's what happened.

60 years ago today, Mississippi's deadliest tornado and one of its very few 5-rated twisters tore through part of Jackson.

03.03.2026 12:14 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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First, Albuquerque, NM crushed its previous record warmest winter in 135 years.

Then yesterday, their record earliest 80˚ high.

03.03.2026 12:10 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 2
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Straight out of the March textbook for the upper Midwest next week.

Warm tease🌑️
With wind 🌬️
Then t-storms 🌩️
Then cold πŸ₯Ά

03.03.2026 10:22 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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March Tornadoes Have Been Much More Numerous Recently | Weather.com It's typically only the kickoff of active spring severe weather. But in recent years, including 2025, March outbreaks have been among the worst of the year. Here's what you need to know.

With 2025 still "preliminary", the 3 highest March tornado tallies in the U.S. have happened in the past 4 years.

And in those 3 years, March counts have been on par or even higher than May.

Perspective: πŸ‘‡

03.03.2026 09:49 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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March Weather: 5 Ways It's Frustrating, From Snowstorms To Tornadoes | Weather.com March can be the wildest weather month of the year. Here are some of the things you might see that span the weather spectrum from snowstorms to tornadoes.

As a meteorologist and resident of the northern U.S., I have a very conflicted view of March weather.

01.03.2026 14:31 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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US Hottest Winter Temperature Just Happened In Texas Thursday | Weather.com It's a preliminary finding, but stunning, no less. Heat typical of the heart of summer scorched South Texas in late February. Here's what happened.

Here's the preliminary findings from NWS-Brownsville on what may be America's hottest winter temperature on record.

27.02.2026 18:36 πŸ‘ 22 πŸ” 14 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 1
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NOAA has rated the February 22-24, 2026 Nor'easter a Category 3 (out of 5) on the Regional Snowfall Index (RSI) scale.

This places it as the #17 most impactful snow storm event - based on total snowfall, storm size, and societal impact - for the Northeast since 1900.

27.02.2026 13:37 πŸ‘ 22 πŸ” 5 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Also was apparently a 107˚ at Falcon Lake (on the Rio Grande) on Feb. 23, 2017. So...still a lot we're not yet certain about.

27.02.2026 12:38 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Some uncertainty whether an all-time US winter (Dec-Feb) heat record was set Thursday.

Per NOWData, Rio Grande City, TX once hit 104˚ on Feb. 26, 1902.

So we may have an all-time winter record tie, assuming nowhere else in S. TX, AZ, CA ever hit 105˚+ from Dec-Feb??

Impressive regardless.

27.02.2026 10:48 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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Quite a few south TX locations reached or topped 100˚ Thursday the first 100s in the nation in 2026.

Laredo (103˚) tied their Feb. monthly record.

Dozens more daily records from TX -> S. Calif. through Sunday.

27.02.2026 09:57 πŸ‘ 8 πŸ” 3 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Admittedly a tougher ask...any chance the March wind monthly rank map exists without city labels and county outlines? (No problem if not.) Again, thank you!

26.02.2026 16:14 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Wow! Perfect! Thank you so much, Dr. B. πŸ‘

26.02.2026 16:07 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

@climatologist49.bsky.social First, I'm guessing you're enjoying the cold?

Do you have maps showing where March is the windiest month climatology?

I seem to recall you did that for MAM as a whole?

Thanks, as always!

26.02.2026 15:34 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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Quite a strong signal among multiple model ensembles for heavy rain from Texas to the mid-Mississippi Valley from mid-next week into first weekend of March. Could be a drought-eraser.

Where/when/magnitude of severe threat TBD, per usual.

26.02.2026 11:10 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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On This Date: It Snowed In San Francisco | Weather.com Snow in California's high country is typical. But it's very rare to see flakes of snow at sea level in San Francisco. Here's what happened, and how rare it is.

15 years ago this morning, flakes of snow fell in San Francisco. And not just atop Twin Peaks.

26.02.2026 10:42 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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One other location appears to have smashed its all-time snowstorm record in the Blizzard of 2026.

weather.com/storms/winte...

25.02.2026 10:49 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Heads up for those catching some early Cactus League games later this week/weekend:

Record heat is forecast for Arizona, including some "first 90s of the year" that are about a month earlier than usual. (Gfx: NWS-Phoenix)

24.02.2026 13:17 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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While the blizzard was hammering the East Coast, we had the planet's first Category 5 tropical cyclone of 2026 Monday, Cyclone Horacio. Topped out at 160 mph winds and 920 millibar central pressure, based on satellite estimates.

Fortunately, it passed well east of Rodrigues Island (Mauritius).

24.02.2026 12:34 πŸ‘ 21 πŸ” 5 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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East Coast Blizzard All-Time Record Snowstorm In Providence, Rhode Island | Weather.com We have the latest staggering snow totals, peak wind gusts, and other notable reports from this historic East Coast blizzard.

At least three preliminary all-time records appear to have been set during the storm, all in the Ocean State.

Two cities had about an entire season's worth of snow in two days.

Deets in our full storm recap πŸ‘‡

24.02.2026 12:13 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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How Much Snow Has Fallen In Historic East Coast Blizzard | Weather.com We have the latest staggering snow totals, peak wind gusts, and other notable reports from this historic East Coast blizzard.

This East Coast snowstorm could approach all-time state snowstorm records in a pair of states.

More in our continuously updated recap page πŸ‘‡

23.02.2026 17:21 πŸ‘ 6 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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The snowbands have hardly changed in 6 hours.

No wonder the prolific snow totals we're seeing.

23.02.2026 15:19 πŸ‘ 5 πŸ” 3 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0