Will Jennings📉🗳️

🇬🇧 UK Poll of Polls: 07 March 2026

27% ➡️ Reform
19% 🌹 Labour
18% 🌳 Conservative
15% 🍃 Green
12% 🐥 Lib Dem
5% 👽 Other
3% ✖️ SNP

The Two Deprivations Are poorer constituencies going green of turquoise?

1/ I have done a data dive on ‘The Two Deprivations’ and the govt’s Green-Reform dilemma: parables.substack.com/p/the-two-de...
It references the work of @luketryl.bsky.social @robfordmancs.bsky.social

Oh I'd forgotten about Greenland for a moment, do I have to keep that on my radar too?!

🧵Feels like shouting into the void, but it is essential to note that the Trump/Rubio gutting of the State Department and blowtorching of US diplomatic capacity and credibility is an accelerant to this spiraling war and will seriously undercut US/allied efforts to pick up the pieces after. 1/

I think the secretary of defense should not be a psychopath

Trump’s “Warflation” Has Just Begun If he were trying to increase prices on purpose, would he be doing anything differently?

Get ready for some "warflation": higher prices for oil, gas, food (lots of fertilizer passes through Hormuz), goods made with petrochemicals (umbrellas, shampoo, toys, etc.), and pretty much anything that needs to be transported anywhere.
Affordability! open.substack.com/pub/thebulwa...

Well, gas is expensive, and food is expensive, and we’re doing a war nobody wants, but at least there are no jobs

I think I've seen this film before...

If it's any comfort, crypto is getting kicked in the balls.

this isn't just a MAGA thing, it's a cross-American one and *especially* a lot of people who came of age in politics or punditry in the 1990s. the idea that the news could happen to them - that the world might not be all going their way - is genuinely brain-breaking to a lot of them

Relentless sun and ruthless populists: how the climate crisis will change the next 20 years Former diplomat Arthur Snell says a heating planet is accelerating conflict and migration – and fostering a new age of empire. Democracies are dangerously unprepared, he warns

In the ahem now longlost days before the war, I interviewed @snellarthur.bsky.social about his new book on how the climate crisis is upending geopolitics (yes we did talk about the future of Gulf petrostates, which was looking fairly unstable even before this) www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle...

That Trump repeats calls for Iran's unconditional surrender on same day he's got the defence industrial chiefs round for an emergency meeting on military supplies perfectly sums up his grasp of ends & means.

To my surprise, the campaign also offered lessons in love. I gave a quote to a newspaper about my blossoming relationship with Eilidh Hargreaves, features director at Tatler, and how (unfortunately for her) we spent our first Valentine’s Day canvassing. The quote led to us trending on X thanks to some incel lefties who run an account called ‘Reform UK Exposed’. ‘The “Family, Community, Country” campaigner divorced only last month,’ it raged. Really? Eilidh and I met more than three years after my separation – at The Spectator Parliamentarian of the Year Awards no less. In any case, the attempted hit-job backfired as politicians and journalists rushed to our defence. ‘Ha ha!’ remarked one shrewd commentator. ‘Having an attractive and successful girlfriend will increase Goodwin’s popularity, you complete spanners.’ Indeed. I’ve tried and failed to forget another comment: ‘Goodwin is clearly punching

After reading Matt Goodwin’s diary in The Spectator, I am more convinced than ever that he has a humiliation fetish.

The name for this unfortunate condition is 'podcast brain'.

That is troubling if so. A deeply unserious individual.

The name for this unfortunate condition is 'podcast brain'.

Nothing they talk about more in "left behind communities" than reinstalling the Shah.

Now that they're trying to pretend their war is not a war, they've gone back to calling it the Defense Department.

as it turns out, wiping 14% of the world's energy supply (7%pt of global oil production and 7%pt of the world's natural gas) out by shutting hormuz has negative consequences

Heating oil prices have more than doubled in the UK since war broke out: that’s 4.5m people living off gas grid, no they haven’t all got Agas, and in places like Cumbria and Scottish islands that’s a lot of anxious pensioners. (Difference with post-Ukraine is oil as well as gas spiking this time)

The White House position is that it is no big deal that Putin is helping Iran try to kill US soldiers.

Always remember rule #1. Putin can do no wrong in Trump’s eyes.

Wonder why that is?

Via @larrysabato.bsky.social, there are periods where gas prices are highly correlated with presidential approval, most notably under George W. Bush. The US is more polarised today, but this still presents a major political/electoral threat for Trump and the GOP.

Via @larrysabato.bsky.social, there are periods where gas prices are highly correlated with presidential approval, most notably under George W. Bush. The US is more polarised today, but this still presents a major political/electoral threat for Trump and the GOP.

Is the line going up good?

Ok, so why are they disaffected with Labour?

Some of it is similar to other groups - the slow pace of change.

But left defection is more distinctly values based than right. Rather than just one issue, there's a sense that Labour has been more right wing than they expected.

This is a great thread. So much political commentary of the past couple of years has been plain wrong.

Most pollsters will now show you Labour losing more to the left than right.

These are not, despite what some say, ‘metro libs’ in safe seats - they’re spread out in electoral battlegrounds all over the country. Labour’s 2024 victory was partly built on them, esp in Blue Wall.

This is not good.

Quite an opening paragraph.

WASHINGTON (AP) - Employers unexpectedly cut 92,000 jobs last month and unemployment edges up to 4.4% with labor market under pressure.