Jan 2025 predictions 1-yr return:
Long renewables $FAN +40% $TAN +43% $NLF +58%
Neutral oil $XLF +4%
Long eAviation $JOBY +70%
Long 🇨🇳 $CNYA +32%
Long 🇪🇺🇬🇧 $IDV +43%
Neutral $BTC -10%
Long gold/metals $GLD +66% $XME +102%
Lab-grown meat: 7 states banned…signals they’re worried
The hate mongers of old also wrote letters to the editor of their local newspaper and waited by the mailbox each month for Ron Paul’s newsletter to arrive.
I spent my 20’s in work ‘bootcamp’ building my client base.
Missed weekends with friends at the pool/lake, rarely took vacation, & gained 40 pounds.
However, by age 32 I was financially comfortable and my business was on autopilot.
Worked for me. No regrets.
Disheartening.
Meanwhile in the financial sector, people I know making $50k/week think they’re under-paid.
I haven’t watched CNBC since the Aughts.
Bloomberg TV is the only financial media I permit to be displayed on office televisions.
77.3 million U.S. adults in 2024 voted for retribution.
Short USA.
An anti-war (pro-Palestine) protest on Peachtree Road in Buckhead (Atlanta) this morning.
Hearing a number of car horns in support of the message.
America in decline because 28% of US *adults* decided a rapi$t & insurrectionist was their preferred choice for President.
A client living in D.C. said the last time she felt unsafe was January 6, 2021.
I wasn’t much of a drinker before GLP-1, but now have no desire to consume alcohol.
I paid $30 for a martini in Paris a few weeks ago and drank $1 of it.
Adding gold leaf to the White House and spending $200 million on a ballroom is not the behavior of a man looking to move out on 20 January 2029.
Expect Insurrection 3.0*
*Insurrection 1.0 was Bush/Gore, 2.0 was January 6th
F1: Le film
"Si la dernière chose que je fais est de conduire cette voiture, je prendrai ce volant."
Magnifique!
Worst:
2000: Bush/Gore (Insurrection 1.0)
2001: 9/11 (1/3 of adults lost their minds)
2003: Tax cuts & desert wars
2016: End of American exceptionalism
2020: COVID (1/3 adults lost their minds)
Best:
2008: Obama
2011: Initial investment in TSLA
2012: Obama
2013: Got married
2022: Bought the dip
The US imported $5.4b worth of Swiss watches in 2024. US importers of *new* Swiss watches will pay Trump’s 39% tariff.
The response from Trump-aligned watch AD’s & resellers on social media is as expected. Their customers will [happily] pay more for a new Rolex, Patek, AP, or Omega. 🙃
Sit in an outdoor cafe only one half block from a main city thoroughfare in Paris or London and you’ll be surrounded by transportation, but speaking softly to your friends & family.
It’s only going to get quieter as we quickly transition from the internal combustion engine.
Long UK, Europe, China
Rationale: Quiet cities
After 2 weeks in London/Paris for me & 3 for a friend back from China the prevalence of electric cars, trucks, bikes, motorcycles, vans, & buses has made the greatest cities audibly quieter.
Smart gov’t incentives = results
Explains why a significant portion of the 77.3 million U.S. *adults* (28% of all U.S. *adults* in 2024) voted for a rapist and insurrectionist.
There are 11 ’Five Guys’ restaurant locations in Paris and 39 throughout France.
Every time I walk by one they are packed. Which of the founders fell in love with Paris?
We spotted many EV cars, vans, taxis, Uber, and transit busses in London. In certain areas they’re so prevalent the streets are quiet.
A notable number of curbside EV charging options.
I was happy to spot a BYD store in a very posh neighborhood and saw plenty of BYDs in the wild.
Why I’m long China stocks and bullish about China’s future.
I witnessed the most American thing last night.
My neighbor drove one of his two Porsche 800 feet to the steak house on our street.
Meanwhile, cultivated meat price declines mirror the downward trend seen in consumer technology.
The future is cell-based agriculture.
An American friend from Atlanta is in China for the next few weeks teaching Pilates, a growing fitness trend popular with young & affluent Chinese.
I receive 12 AM EDT texts of Chinese EVs, personal eVTOL, HSR, delivery robots, driverless cars, & images of life in the year 2035.
I know a GenXer who recently purchased an Audemars Piguet Royal Oak super clone for ~$1K.
He could easily afford the authentic version for $35K MSRP (assuming he could find an AP at retail).
The super clone looks great. Unless you’re a ‘watch guy’ it is difficult to tell the difference.
On Sunday I removed too many discarded cans of Michelob Ultra from the water and shoreline of Lake Oconee.
Questionable Tesla Model 3 modifications spotted in Atlanta.
Spotted a BrightDrop Zevo 600 with FedEx livery in Atlanta.
•600+ cubic feet of cargo room
•250 miles of range
This is a storyline in ‘Mountainhead’
A client lost his 80 year old wife and 55 year old daughter this month.
We talked for hours on Tuesday.
Hug your loved ones.
