Pretty remarkable that Bethell's first three hundreds as a professional cricketer were in an ODI, a Test and a T20I (I think).
05.03.2026 17:21
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Pretty remarkable that Bethell's first three hundreds as a professional cricketer were in an ODI, a Test and a T20I (I think).
So I pleased to announce the conceptual spawn of FigTree: PearTree (acronym still to be finalised). If you want to dive right in it is hosted as a web app here: artic-network.github.io/peartree (click the “Example...” button for immediate candy and then click every button you can find).
The next OWABI seminar will be given by Shreya Sinha Roy (Warwick), who will talk about "Prequential posteriors" on Thursday the 26th February at 11am UK time.
arxiv.org/abs/2511.1...
www.warwick.ac.uk/owabi
MS Teams link: teams.microsoft.com/...
We use SMC to estimate the likelihood of SDE parameters, combining controlled SMC (to obtain low variance estimators) with numerical splitting schemes and diffusion bridges (to reduce the time-discretisation bias). We show how to use the approach in three different observation regimes.
In July Shu Huang (with me, Massi Tamborrino and Adam Johansen) posted a paper "Inference for Diffusion Processes via Controlled Sequential Monte Carlo and Splitting Schemes". arxiv.org/abs/2507.1...
Ian Roberts published his first paper "Bayesian Inference of Pathogen Phylogeography using the Structured Coalescent Model" with me, Jere Koskela and Xavier Didelot. We describe an efficient reversible jump MCMC method for inference for the structured coalescent. journals.plos.org/pl...
This year the European Meeting of Statisticians will be in Lugano, Switzerland, 24 - 28 August 2026. The deadline for abstract submission is 31 March 2026. https://www.ems26.org/
Tomorrow's OWABI seminar by Louis Sharrock (UCL), who will talk about "Sequential Neural Score Estimation: Likelihood-free inference with conditional score base diffusion models" (29th Jan, 11am UK time). Join: teams.microsoft.com/...
Meeting ID: 388 990 396 214 49
Passcode: f3Dh22XL
Publisher link: link.springer.com/ar...
Early version on arxiv: arxiv.org/abs/1908.0...
Xi'an's Og: xianblog.wordpress.c...
"Annealing Strategies for Variance Reduction in Balance Heuristic Estimators" by Felipe Medina Aguayo and I is accepted in Stats and Computing. Multiple importance sampling uses multiple proposals to reduce variance. We use annealing to significantly further reduce variance. https://rdcu.be/eqe8j
Today is the deadline for contributed talks and posters for our event on Environmental Modelling meets Infectious Diseases. Early-career researchers successful in their application to give a talk will be funded up to £200 for their travel costs.
go.warwick.ac.uk/env...
Shreya Sinha Roy's first paper (joint with me, Christian Robert and Rito Dutta) is on "Generalized Bayesian deep reinforcement learning". We use a neural network as a model in Bayesian reinforcement learning, trained using a generalized prequential scoring rule with SMC arxiv.org/abs/2412.1...
Speakers:
Prof. Marta Blangiardo, Imperial
Dr Hannah Christensen, Oxford
Prof. Sophie Dabo-Niang, Lille
Dr Jill Johnson, Sheffield
Dr TJ McKinley, Exeter
Dr Ben Swallow, St Andrews
Dr William Thurston, Met Office
We also welcome submissions to the contributed talk and poster sessions up to the 15th of January. The submission form is at http://go.warwick.ac...
Early-career researchers successful in their application to give a talk will be funded up to £200 for their travel costs.
Featured topics will include numerical modelling over a range of temporal and spatial scales, and statistical inference, calibration and uncertainty quantification of model parameters. Dates are 16-17 April 2026. Register for free at http://go.warwick.ac...
*Environmental Modelling meets Infectious Diseases: from Mathematics to Applications* Upcoming workshop in Warwick Stats, supported CRiSM, LMS and RSS. We aim to promote the transfer of ideas between the environmental modelling and infectious disease modelling communities.
http://go.warwick.ac...
(Realised that I am very behind with posting papers to social media. More to follow in the New Year. Not sure yet how far back in time I will go...)
We infer prevalence and reproduction number of a disease over time, along with the reporting probability. The paper considers applications to HIV-1 in North Carolina and tuberculosis in Buenos
Aires, and compares with alternative approaches that use only epidemiological or only genetic data.
New paper accepted in JRSSC with Alicia Gill, Jere Koskela and Xavier Didelot on "Bayesian Inference of Reproduction Number from Epidemiological and Genetic Data Using Particle MCMC". We supplement case data with a dated phylogeny inferred from sequence data arxiv.org/pdf/2311.0...
New paper from Shreya Sinha Roy, me, Christian Robert and Rito Dutta on "Prequential posteriors". We use a a predictive-sequential loss function to fit deep generative forecasting models for the purpose of data assimilation, with waste-free SMC for fitting the neural network arxiv.org/abs/2511.1...
Warwick Statistics is recruiting two Assistant Professors!
We are looking for a researcher with a strong track record and outstanding promise in one or more areas of Statistical Methodology and Theory, Computational Statistics and Machine Learning. Closing date: 25th Jan 26
warwick-careers.tal....
The 1st OWABI talk of the Season will be given by François-Xavier Briol (University College London). who will talk about "Multilevel neural simulation-based inference".
Warwick Statistics is hiring an Assistant Professor in Mathematical Finance! The deadline is 23rd November.
I'm very much looking forward to speaking at the upcoming workshop on MCMC at Newcastle. Details here: sites.google.com/vie... I will speak about MCMC with active subspaces arxiv.org/abs/2501.0...
New work on inference for partially observed (hypoelliptic) SDEs in frequentist/Bayesian regimes.
Splitting schemes & controlled SMC (+ bridges) to recover the (pseudo)likelihood of interest
arxiv.org/abs/2507.14535
Work led by Shu, with @adamjohansen.bsky.social and @bayesianstats.bsky.social
Starting now!
The final OWABI seminar www.warwick.ac.uk/owabi of the season will feature two selected talks and will take place live from BayesComp bayescomp2025.sg/! The talks will take place on Thursday the 19th June at 1pm UK time (note the different date and time!), and will be given by
Recently-completed Warwick PhD student Ian Roberts, with Xavier Didelot, Richard Everitt and Jere Koskela, have had the paper "Bayesian Inference of Pathogen Phylogeography using the Structured Coalescent Model" accepted in PLOS Computational Biology
journals.plos.org/pl...
Cricket fans! This is the best Fantasy Cricket site:
bsky.app/profile/cric...
