Jason

Well it is disappointing we can't quite say 99% of voters rejected the conservatives

Anyway I'm glad Matt Goodwin ate shit, cause he is a shit and is shit

People when they vote for a party generally expect them to do and say things they like and that help their lives. A party that goes out it's way to piss it's supporters off instead, well low and behold your once voters are unhappy and feel like saying so with their votes

And when a party is doing that all successfully people react and then the next day some more people like them will too and they gain support. It's not just magic numbers in a table you're trying to measure it's people to whom politics does actually matter

Also people shouldn't think polls are all like science experiments trying to get the same result. Elections are about people and they react to things in the news and from messaging and from knowing what others like them think, so yeah parties will want to show the first best evidence they get

Cause this does keep happening in upset by-elections and getting dismissed when it is actually saying something useful. A party gaining on a big swing will draw level *at some point* in the campaign and there's something to learn in when that is rather than dismiss any poll saying it's happened

Like assuming the poll was in the field couple weeks out, one of those three tied parties was very clearly improving it's standing through the campaign one going backwards and one that could maybe do a bit better or worse but was mostly where you'd expect from their coverage and results last year(s)

Tbh I think any take of 'cant trust the constituency polls' is itself wrong because narrow race a few weeks back seems about right when a party starting a distant third runs a good campaign and wins comfortably. It's because they spent the time convincing people and continued to do so

An experiment that brought them many wins but never delivered on its full promise and brought a bitter fallout. We can hope they find success again with a classic collective approach and stop new rivals with dubious international backing from dominating... Guess we'll see how far the analogy can go

My bet is Qatar and I don't have the proof but I think Stage for just before the intermediate sprint. Mørkøv takes it Kartsen Kroon came third and I recon this pic is both of them as Mørkøv passes his lead out

Honestly Lotto 2010s aren't a bad analogy for the Greens. Old team but long second favourite with fans used to Quickstep (Labour) winning. But hey maybe there's an end of an era coming in Belgian cycling soon, and with a new leader they're winning... Okay Polanski as Greipel is a stretch but funny

Upon further investigation I am certain this is 2014 kit for Tinkoff Saxo. The red shorts behind don't exactly match Lotto but the do match the Danish Champs shorts of Michael Mørkøv. So both on the the same team likely in a lead out or echelon. Possibly Tours of likely Qatar Oman or Luxembourg

But obviously huge fan of this innovative approach to heavily blurring pro cycling images instead of stock image of two horses for this kind of message

To pivot to my other obsession. The blurred cyclist have team kits for Saxo-Tinkoff (front in yellow and blue) and Lotto-Soudal (behind in red black and white) circa 2015. Trying to work out who exactly just from: they're sprinting, it's summer, Tinkoff rider has a recent crash, and it's not Sagan

Lot of seats are a fair bit more internally different than headline figures give away or most assume tbf. Still if a party thinks it can win there's still a number you need to hit in the worst ward, wise to weight resources one way but not neglect the other

Kinda expected more from Reform, even if you're not in their main target areas. Farage parties have always been better getting on airwaves than ground campaign but they are meant to be stepping it up. Anyway thanks for sharing, found it interesting insight to what parties are putting out these days

Why I suspect, particularly given the earlier drama, the nice letter from the mayor is the most useful bit of paper they've printed

I meant not that I thought they didn't campaign but that the machine would run and not for some years has there been as much concern if it was enough. Doubt they've lacked resources but not had to think as much of every which way to use them

Has to be a first time they learn to have a proper go. Do also assume it's true that 'labour will have a strong get out the vote operation' and 'a nice postcard from your mayor will go down well' but neither seem newsworthy nor previously all that necessary

Just a lot of things done well to make a quality leaflet. Greens do seem to be running a level of competent and competitive campaigning they probably couldn't have pulled off not long ago

Could all still be local members they would have enough, but also the 'actually decent photos' part is something not to underestimate how much parties struggle with even their actual candidates

I've worked campaigns and seen a few 'what the neighbours are saying' leaflets that typically have some quotes that just happen to be from councillors and the local party chair. Getting 30 people to give quotes and permission to use their photo and who have actually decent photos is a genuine feat

But is he sweating right now

Ultimately by default a new party leader for the majority in Parliament the King invites them to be his PM (yes it really is that old fashioned when you get down to it). Only messy if no one actually has support of a majority of MPs, a new Labour Leader would be fine until they're not once again

Basically if he does the normal thing, Streeter and Rayner definitely run and have a chance with the membership. Burnham can't while not an MP (thus the block). Maybe someone else runs with less hope. Possibly someone openly challenges and he fights it (see Corbyn v Owen Smith) or he packs it in.

Resign as party leader first and stay as PM until successor chosen is more common (what happened to Johnson, May, Cameron). The same day ousting/ replacement as PM is basically what happened in WW2 with Churchill and Chamberlain.

Technical answer: different for each if his roles. Resign as Labour leader: default is deputy becomes acting (Lucy Powell now) until members elect a new leader. As PM and basically the same day the King can invite someone to role (whoever first seems most likely to have support in parliament)

Already are two Dutch teams so less invested in the 'snub' of the fake French actually Dutch Unibet team

Anyway...

¡Vamos!

Still losing has a lot of room to be true yet better than 'serious possibility of losing Wales / Manchester and other places that have voted Labour for a century'. A difference that could be worth quite a lot for maintaining a recoverable position

'We're all out of Donkeys to put red rosettes on' ought sound a more honest concern for Labour when defending the Manchester Mayoralty than whatever this is