NEW: The government has today proposed a major set of reforms to special needs and educational needs and disabilities in England, with more funding and support provided upfront through mainstream schools.
⬇️ Read @lukesibieta.bsky.social's immediate response here: ifs.org.uk/articles/gov...
Wonderful paper to read on a Saturday morning.
ADHD is part of the green line, but its definitely not flat. It's totally different for people in their early 20s and those in their late 20s. We have no idea if this is an age or cohort thing.
Under 16s here are those claiming CDLA. Many will have EHCPs, many won't
Worth noting that rising needs related to autism and ADHD are a really big explanation for rising disability claims amongst children and young people
There is also increasing pass through from CDLA to PIP
Would be interesting to map this directly to NEETs
ifs.org.uk/publications...
Massive congrats to @ckfarquharson.bsky.social and her @theifs.bsky.social colleagues.
They have put so much time and thought into their evaluation of sure start and it’s multiple effects over time.
The quality and impact of their work reflects this. 👏
3. Govt could reduce mainstream school budgets to fund high needs
£6bn is 11% of mainstream school budgets, so little chance of closing the whole gap this way.
But we’ve already seen squeezes in mainstream budgets. Over half of the rise in total school funding since 2018 has gone on high needs
2. The govt could top up the schools budget from elsewhere in the govt’s budget.
£6bn would be a 9% top up to the schools budget.
I’m sure this is DfEs preferred option
I suspect the chancellor would want to see clear plans to get spending under control before considering this.
c) introduce stronger value for money tests so that legal mandates only apply where there is strong evidence a child will benefit from provision
d) restrict eligibility for EHCPs to higher cost needs. This makes more sense if you do a)-c)
1. Govt has various option to slow growth in SEND spending:
a) Shift funding to expand ordinary provision in mainstream schools so it’s easier, earlier and closer to pupils
b) increase places in state-funded special schools to reduce reliance on expensive places in the private sector
…
On Wednesday, we learned that SEND spending is growing much faster than expected, with 14% real-terms growth this year alone.
Govt now has 3 options to close an expected £6bn funding gap in 2028
1. Slow the growth in SEND spending
2. Top up the schools budget
3. Reduce mainstream school budgets
🧵
Always a pleasure to come to the #r4today studio. This time to talk about the challenges facing the government on special educational needs spending.
Good news: We now have a forecast for SEND spending, rather than flying blind.
From 2028, central gov't will fund all SEND provision from within departmental spending. Without reform or spending top-ups, that's a £6bn pressure on budgets that year.
@theifs.bsky.social #Budget2025
Based on provisional outturns, the OBR expects spending on SEND will grow by over £2 billion or 17% in cash-terms in 2025-26
That is HUGE growth and about double what we expected
@theifs.bsky.social
Best followed up with this FT podcast with
@timleunig.bsky.social who has a nice example of why zero-rating things like food and children's clothing isn't a particularly effective way of supporting poorer households
www.ft.com/content/33d7...
📗 Read @eduinlatimer.bsky.social, @lukesibieta.bsky.social and Darcey Snape's IFS Green Budget chapter, funded by @nuffieldfoundation.org, on support for children with disabilities and special educational needs here: ifs.org.uk/publications...
Thats right.
We see relative declines at age 11 between 2013 and 2018, with not much change afterwards
We then see some small catch-up for most needs at age 16 from 2013 onwards. Note that the severe learning difficulties group is small and VERY heterogenous.
The only way to improve quality is through increases to supply-side capacity.
This could include a long-term specialist workforce plan, much better training for teachers on SEND needs, better partnerships with special schools and real accountability for outcomes [3/3]
ifs.org.uk/articles/eng...
This is the default projection in the absence of reform
The key question for government is whether it can deliver a smaller rise AND improve quality
We've written how the current EHCP-led funding model doesn't provide incentives to improve quality and can actively prevent it [2/3]
Our @theifs.bsky.social projections show a £3 billion real-terms rise in high needs spending between now and 2029
This is about £600m higher than previous forecasts quoted by the NAO
If delivered, current fiscal plans then imply real-terms cuts to mainstream school spending per pupil [1/3]
There is a huge variation in educational outcomes across pupils with EHCPs with different types of needs. These differences have been quite stable over time.
There are probably big differences within types of needs too, illustrating the diversity of need and challenge in providing support [6/6]
Increases in disability claims are faster for teenagers than for adults, with practically all of the increase driven by Autism and ADHD needs
If this turns into more young adults on out of work benefits, this could generate big labour market and fiscal risks [5/6]
Areas with high EHCP rates tend to have high numbers of children receiving disability benefits. But the relationship is weaker than expected.
Many areas of London have high EHCP rates, but average CDLA claims
Some areas are really high on both measures (Knowsley: 7% with EHCPs, 16% on CDLA) [4/6]
Children with EHCPs are much more likely to come from a low-income background. This relationship is persistent over time and seen across a range of measures. Talk of bigger increases amongst middle and high income parents isn't really borne out in the data [3/6]
The fastest increases in EHCPs are amongst 4- and 5-year-olds. This could be a really good sign if earlier identification of needs leads to early, high-quality support. That is a BIG if though. [2/6]
Today, we published a new @theifs.bsky.social Green Budget chapter on children with special educational needs & disability support, which is joint work with colleagues @eduinlatimer.bsky.social and Darcey Snape
I wanted to delve deeper into some of the key findings....[1/6]
Some good news. Plans to drop triple science as GCSE options in Wales have been postponed till at least 2031 (pending further consultation)
The case for removing this popular and rigorous option always seemed quite weak to me
qualifications.wales/news-views/f...
And finally (!), whilst reform may seem hard and costly. Doing nothing is probably worse.
Spending is going to go up, the question is how to spend the money in ways that actually improve the system.
Attitudes are also key, and difficult to shift (as seen in Scotland). Schools and teachers must believe that providing for SEND is a core part of their job, and feel able to do it [6/6]
Currently, accountability is focused on spending and inputs. This should shift to outcomes and quality [5/6]
If reforms are to be successful, there must be a coherent transformation of the supply side. This probably involves more state-funded special schools and increased provision in mainstream schools [4/6]
