We find little evidence that health concerns or COVID infection rates explain the persistence.
Instead, habits, investments, and institutional changes result in a durable shift in behavior.
Why did lockdowns have a persistent effect on WFH?
- Employers appear to downsize office space & are more willing to offer WFH options
- Workers appear to invest in home offices and move further from city centers.
These adjustments have locked in WFH habits.
Hybrid work is especially sticky.
Fully remote work is less persistent, but partial WFH remains common — especially in NSW and Victoria.
The stronger the lockdown, the greater and more persistent the WFH shift.
We analyse data from the HILDA Survey — a nationally representative longitudinal panel — focusing on the 50% of workers with office jobs (those most able to WFH).
By 2023, workers in heavily locked-down states were still working from home 43% more (or an extra half a day p/w)
After an initial national lockdown, Australia saw big differences across states in lockdown duration.
- Victoria: 206 extra lockdown days than control states
- NSW: 90 extra days
- ACT: 46 extra days
We use this natural experiment to study long-run WFH effects.
🧵 New paper: How temporary COVID lockdowns permanently shifted work patterns in Australia 🇦🇺
A thread 👇
Link: drive.google.com/file/d/1KAf3...
Hey all, please be aware the super productive Todd Morris is now on #EconSky.
@toddmorris.bsky.social
