William D. James

An impact of this is going to be an almighty fight about British defence spending priorities.We are currently not spending enough (or rather not spending quickly enough, the targeted end point is fine) to do our bit deterring Russia.There will now be pressure to prepare for this sort of scenario too

Telling poll of which partners Germans trust - France as always on top, with the UK now as joint E3 partner a close second.

Trump's USA is just 3 points above Russia.

Grrr, I mean they should have deployed HMS Dragon earlier but if you're looking to identify who's responsible for us only having a handful of destroyers, it's the fault of governments 15-20 years ago.

The Islamic Republic in ruins President Trump's strike on the Islamic Republic, Operation ‘Epic Fury’, seeks to remove the Iranian regime's monopoly of violence.

The Islamic Republic in ruins | Ali Ansari

engelsbergideas.com/notebook/the...

Timing couldn’t be better, but that’s something that should anyway be on your reading list!

Our book is out today! Includes a chapter from me on the history of Joint Strike Fighter

The book examines underexplored crises, draws on new archival material, and includes fresh interviews with decision-makers such as Tony Blair & George Robertson.

Available for $35 if you order directly from Georgetown using the discount code TGUF.
press.georgetown.edu/Book/Transat... 2/2

Another crisis in UK-US relations. How does the alliance survive repeated ruptures?

Greg Kennedy & I brought together 14 brilliant scholars to answer that in Transatlantic Storms in Anglo-American Relations: How the Alliance Weathers Crises.

Out today with Georgetown University Press. 1/2

Demonstrating commitment and reducing risk: a British SSN heads to Australia | The Strategist The imminent visit to Perth of a British nuclear attack submarine (SSN) clearly demonstrates Britain’s commitment to AUKUS, going ahead despite the Royal Navy’s current challenges in deploying its SSN...

"It’s worth emphasising that, among Australia’s risks in Pillar One, Britain’s involvement is not the highest...there can be little doubt that Britain will build an SSN class to replace the Astutes, regardless of AUKUS." www.aspistrategist.org.au/demonstratin...

Japan's new political force Sanae Takaichi’s decisive election victory reflects broader global trends – a rightward shift in politics and a new, unapologetic nationalism.

Some thoughts on #Japan’s recent and remarkable general election and #Takaichi Sanae’s extraordinary victory.

engelsbergideas.com/notebook/jap...

The United States under Trump has become a predatory hegemon. It is a strategy that contains the seeds of its own destruction. I explain why in this forthcoming essay of mine in FOREIGN AFFAIRS (no paywall but you do have to register). www.foreignaffairs.com/guest-pass/r...

Are we entering a new world of spheres of influence? The Big Ask | No. 04.2026

Are we entering a new world of spheres of influence?

✍️ Gabriel Elefteriu, Euan Graham, @ameliahadfield1.bsky.social, Beatrice Heuser, @joshuachuminski.bsky.social, @wdjames.bsky.social, @lanoszka.bsky.social, Timothy Less, Jennifer Parker, @james-rogers.bsky.social, Julien Lalanne de Saint-Quentin

German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul at the IISS Raffles Lecture in Singapore today: "The law of the strongest seems to be increasingly replacing the strength of the law."

The second clip gets into the UK-US angle and the question of whether the UK is hedging. 2/2

Spoke with Steve Lai on the BBC earlier about the domestic politics surrounding Keir Starmer's trip to China, and the question of whether it connects to broader transatlantic tensions with Donald Trump. 1/2

What a week to be teaching this:

Good morning all. And here’s your regular reminder that the Praetorian Guard killed a lot of emperors.

The fear of spheres | Patrick Porter | The Critic Magazine Periods of international tumult, like the present, need careful analysis. Solutions are no good, obviously, if one wrongly defines the problem. And in turn, careful analysis demands precision with one...

Excellent article in the Critic by @patporter76.bsky.social. I made a similar argument at an RSIS conference in Singapore last week - the underlying logic seems to be "spheres for me, but not for thee". If so, suggests more continuity than change in US foreign policy. thecritic.co.uk/the-fear-of-...

From Pericles to Davos The Athenian statesman Pericles’ Funeral Oration is an organic unity, its authority derived from the speaker’s strength of vision. This stands in complete contrast to today’s political figures, who ci...

From Pericles to Davos | @armanddangour.bsky.social

engelsbergideas.com/notebook/fro...

C'était un grand plaisir d'échanger avec Martin Bot de @mariannelemag.bsky.social la semaine dernière sur la crise transatlantique et la réponse de Keir Starmer.

UK to make fresh push to join EU defence fund Talks that are due to take place next month take on fresh urgency after the transatlantic rupture in Davos

UK to make fresh push to join EU defence fund ft.trib.al/DCofR1f

Doubting U.S. resolve, Europe looks to bolster its own nuclear arsenal The discussions have taken on new urgency as President Trump escalates his criticism of Europe. Germany and Poland already have suggested France’s nuclear weapons could be expanded to defend their cou...

"'We are discussing how to protect Europe with a nuclear deterrent with or without the United States,' one of the European officials said. Another described the discussions among European leaders about ways to guard against a nuclear-armed Russia without the U.S. as 'intense and productive.'"

For reasons unknown, my first book, British Grand Strategy in the Age of American Hegemony, is on sale for £28.99 on Amazon UK - a 62% reduction in price! It would be rude not to at that discount! H/T to @jfb1066.bsky.social www.amazon.co.uk/British-Gran...

Nice! That's news to me 😂

Re my book - that's v kind of you. It's rather pricey unfortunately (my editor tells me that the market for academic books has flat lined), but here is a discount code if you order directly through OUP: ASFLYQ6. Looking forward to hearing your thoughts and hope to catch up on my next trip to 🇬🇧 4/4

point on process. Some are obv better than others. CID & SWW committees are already mentioned here, but I think the Defence & Oversea Policy Committee was a decent forum in bringing the right people together. You can see the difference when Blair gets rid and you have a poor GS decision on Iraq. 3/4

you mention. The East of Suez example comes to mind - there were numerous papers between ministers and officials discussing the problem of overstretch & the need to balance means and ends, but it was difficult to implement (and was ultimately botched by a currency crisis). Also, I second your 2/4

That makes sense. If I've understood correctly, you're mainly talking about the gap between conceptualisation & implementation. If that's the case, I fully agree - I think it's perfectly possible for govts to conceive of 'good' grand strategic decisions but fail to execute for all the reasons 1/4

If we go back to early C20th thinking on grand strategy, it was about a level of decision-making with *long-term consequences*. That lens still travels today (e.g., AUKUS as a grand-strategic decision). Some of us are still trying to keep that flame alive - perhaps in vain 😅 2/2

Respectfully disagree, but I think this comes down to interpretation. The idea that grand strategy = long-term behaviour across successive governments, grounded in fixed interests largely derives from Paul Kennedy. That framing is problematic for several reasons, many of which you rightly flag. 1/2