Dylan Spaulding

The US has also ignored the IAEA's repeated assertions: "In a March 2 press conference, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Director-General Rafael Mariano Grossi said that “we don’t see a structured program to manufacture nuclear weapons” in Iran."

Israel orders more than 500,000 people to evacuate Beirut’s southern suburbs Order comes as Israel continues to bomb Lebanon and Iran, while Tehran launches retaliatory strikes

"Israeli defense minister Israel Katz said on Thursday that the decision to assassinate the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was taken in November, far predating the breakdown in the nuclear programme negotiations that Donald Trump claimed led to the US launching a preemptive strike on Iran."

You're not wrong.

That's correct and sorry not to make that clear in the original post. It does seem, however, that US/Isreali actions in Iran (without apparent consultations with European allies) have likely deepened Macron's resolve and may have ripple effects elsewhere from American distrust.

France to increase its number of nuclear warheads, Macron says – Europe live French president says deterrent needs to be ‘strengthened’ in recognition of new challenges

This is a significant turning point and potentially just the start of a nuclear snowball that the US has set in motion due to its actions in Iran.

Kick the can down the road, by which time costs will inevitably be higher, there will be new unknowns, and greater incentive for Congress to swallow the sunk-cost fallacy. Delays also mean a costly MMIII refurbishment (which was previously deemed impossible in order to justify Sentinel's approval).

How to resolve the Trump administration's allegation that China is engaged in clandestine nuclear testing So long as it doesn't ratify the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, the United States won't be able to seek short-notice, on-site inspections to deter and detect possible Chinese and Russian cland...

This is the best take I've seen on the recent US allegation of Chinese nuclear tests. There are obvious reasons for concern, but the burden of proof is not yet met. At the same time, the need for transparency around activities at the test sites has never been higher and would be provided by the CTBT

Every Day, Nukes Are Riding Right Past People Like You Every day, nuclear weapons are transported in trucks riding along interstates that connect communities across the United States.

My wonderful @scovillepf.bsky.social @seantmanning.bsky.social has a great story in @inkstickmedia.com about biking alongside interstates during COVID. Those interstates could soon be carrying new plutonium "pits" - the radioactive core used in a new nuclear weapon: inkstickmedia.com/every-day-nu...

The court has found both Yoon Suk-yeol and former Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun guilty of insurrection.

New Mexico Rebukes Federal Agency Over Nuclear Waste at Los Alamos

The New Mexico Environment Department is pushing back on Los Alamos to prioritize remediation of its existing waste. This is good news for neighboring communities who bear the burden of the lab’s past and present impacts and who fear the future ones.

Newly Unbound, Trump Weighs More Nuclear Arms and Underground Tests

“It’s all a bit mysterious,’’ said Jill Hruby, a longtime nuclear expert who, until last year, ran the National Nuclear Security Agency, a part of the Energy Department that designs, tests and manufactures American nuclear weapons. “It is very confusing what they are doing.”

The Late Show on Instagram: "Leave it to Shakespeare and @ianmckellen to so eloquently speak of man’s mountainish inhumanity. See Ian McKellen in AN ARK, a new play for mixed reality, at @theshedny ... 355K likes, 9,612 comments - colbertlateshow on February 4, 2026: "Leave it to Shakespeare and @ianmckellen to so eloquently speak of man’s mountainish inhumanity. See Ian McKellen in AN ARK, a new ...

I'm so grateful for the contributions and insights of artists during times like these. This is a powerful monologue, delivered as only Ian McKellen can:

Official statement from the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs on New START on their offer to maintain current limits on nuclear weapons without further negotiations, until a new agreement:

"... no formal official response from the United States... has been received through bilateral channels."

What Does the New Partnership Between Canada and China Tell Us about Future Chinese Foreign Policy? If more countries join Canada in breaking from the US government, China could alter its policies and possibly help end the war in Ukraine.

A vital read from @gkucs.bsky.social:

“Carney, invoking Vaclav Havel’s characterization of the old Soviet system, described the post-war US-led system as “a lie.” If more US allies come to the same conclusion, a significant change in Chinese foreign and defense priorities could follow.”

Director says LANL exceeds pit production objectives - ExchangeMonitor ARLINGTON, VA – The National Nuclear Security Administration’s (NNSA) Los Alamos National Laboratory “exceeded all” objectives for producing the fissile

“if we told you how many pits we make every year, and you kept track, you would know how many W87-1s there are, and that's a classified thing.” - Thom Mason

But I can tell you how many missiles are ready to carry those shiny W87-1's: ZERO. LANL is working hard to meet an unnecessary objective.

Court Rules Trump Administration’s Secret “Climate Working Group” Violated Federal Law Court declared today that the Trump administration violated federal law when it secretly formed the “Climate Working Group” and tasked it with writing a dangerously slanted report used as the basis fo...

A big win today: a federal court found that the Trump administration’s sham report attacking climate science was created in secret by a hand-picked set of climate policy opponents, violating the Federal Advisory Committee Act. Read our statement here:

Troubled Sentinel ICBM Program Still Being Restructured Nearly Two Years After Cost Breach A top Air Force general sees a long future for Sentinel after it enters service, but there is still a lengthy road ahead to get there.

As long as the new Sentinel ICBM is delayed, new plutonium pits from Los Alamos aren't going anywhere - this is yet another reason that plutonium pit production is ripe for rescoping and downsizing. Current (unrealistic) quotas are not in sync with the warheads or delivery systems they are for.

Congress Should Rein in Foolhardy Pursuit of Golden Dome Program A year ago today, President Donald Trump issued a sweeping Executive Order calling for an “Iron Dome for America.” Statement by Dr. Laura Grego at the Union of Concerned Scientists.

“Trump’s Golden Dome space-based interceptor shield is nothing but fool’s gold—shiny, but ultimately worthless—and taxpayers would be left footing the bill to defense contractors,” said Dr. Laura Grego, senior research director in the Global Security program at the Union of Concerned Scientists.

The Trump administration has secretly rewritten nuclear safety rules The rewrite was done to speed up the construction of a new generation of nuclear reactors. Critics warn it could compromise safety and public trust.

"They're taking a wrecking ball to the system of nuclear safety and security regulation oversight that has kept the U.S. from having another Three Mile Island accident," said Edwin Lyman, ... at the Union of Concerned Scientists. "I am absolutely worried about the safety of these reactors."

Bari Weiss Urges CBS News to Think Like a ‘Start-Up’

“We are not producing a product enough people want,” Ms. Weiss told employees... at the network."

You mean like unbiased, objective reporting of facts? Because that's what people want.

The world just passed a surprisingly positive milestone on nuclear weapons It’s been more than eight years since the last nuclear explosion. How long will the pause last?

Thanks to @joshuakeating.bsky.social at @vox.com for picking up on my latest blog about the fragile pause in nuclear testing.

blog.ucs.org/dylan-spauld...

Minnesotans strike to protest ICE surge in state: ‘No work, no school, no shopping’ Organizers demand ICE leave state and agency be investigated for constitutional violations

Stay warm, Minneapolis.

Americans Across Party Lines Want the U.S. to Keep Nuclear Limits with Russia, New Poll Finds As the last remaining U.S.-Russia nuclear limitations treaty expires on Feb. 5, an overwhelming majority of Americans (91 percent) say the United States should negotiate a new agreement with Russia to...

Source:

Also, related: Per ReThink and NTI, "87% of Americans—including the vast majority of Trump voters—think Trump should agree to Russia’s one-year proposal... and 91% want the admin to negotiate a new deal with Russia to either maintain current nuclear limits or further reduce both countries’ arsenals"

Nuclear Weapons Without Limits? Once the New START treaty expires in February 2026, there will be no limits on the number of strategic nuclear weapons the US and Russia can deploy.

Shameless plug for my colleague, Jen Knox's work, on how they would do that:

I don't think this admin recognizes or appreciates anything that was conceieved out of mutual benefit. Zero-sum thinking is simply incompatible with any sort of cooperation or multilateral agreement, hence the "we'll get a better deal" type of rhetoric. His "better deal" might arrive on an ICBM.

Russia says it has no specific contacts with US on expiring nuclear treaty Russia and the United States currently have no specific contacts regarding the imminent expiry of the New START nuclear arms control treaty, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Tuesday.

The Trump team is dropping the ball on New START, which limits deployments of nuclear weapons. Russia has offered an off ramp without negotations but the US isn't responding. This is a no-brainer, but Trump's ignorance and machismo are likely to result in the shredding of this important treaty.

Sustainability Now! Sustainability Now!

Listen to me discuss American nuclear modernization, plutonium pit production, and whether deterrence is a question of faith this evening at 5pm PT on Sustainability Now! on KSQD out of Santa Cruz, CA. Thanks to host, Ronnie Lipschutz for the invite.

Good news: World records longest ever lull in nuclear tests. Bad news: It’s on shaky ground | CNN The world passed a nuclear milestone this week. And, perhaps surprisingly given the recent run of saber-rattling from the likes of Russia and the United States, it’s a positive one.

CNN wrote a story today based on my recent musings on nuclear testing. We passed a fragile milestone this week, setting a record for the longest period without a nuclear test since Trinity. Will it hold?

The blog: blog.ucs.org/dylan-spauld...

CNN's take on all of this:

My colleague @dkspaulding.bsky.social inspired this excellent @cnn.com piece on #nuclear testing with this compelling story: blog.ucs.org/dylan-spauld...