@andylangenkamp
Senior analyst at ECR Research & ICC Consultants. Geopolitics/economy/financial markets. Words in FT, Guardian, Politico, The Hill, The Messenger, NRC, FD, Trouw, Volkskrant, Tijd, Trouw, Knack et al
Iran conflict: Corridor, Shock or Deal? My latest Global Political Analysis asks: can the coalition impose a viable end-state before Iran drives costs beyond tolerance? For Tehran, winning = survival, time & unacceptable pain; not battlefield victory. Full report: ecrresearch.com/research/glo...
Iran-conflict: Corridor, Shock of Deal? De oorlog is veel meer dan een regionale crisis – het is een stresstest voor wereldwijde energiemarkten, economie en geopolitieke orde. Mijn nieuwe analyse over de scenario’s en marktimpact:
ecrresearch.com/research/glo...
The Iran war might create an opportunity to buy, if not now then very soon. However, every so often the pessimists win. Most geopolitical shocks are transitory — but on occasion, there’s a Sarajevo assassination www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...
Daniel Franklin of @economist.com: Trump has no interest in maintaining the status quo: he wants more for America. Disregarding the rule of law is not a casualty; it is a central part of his approach, as are displays of American might
For Trump, success now requires some version, however unique to the Iranian situation, of the Venezuelan endgame, in which a somewhat friendlier regime holds power and conducts negotiations and keeps the lid on chaos www.nytimes.com/2026/03/03/o...
In 2009, US diplomats estimated that a successful attack on Saudi Arabia’s Jubail plant would force the kingdom to evacuate its capital within a week. SArabia has built more capacity since then, but desalination plants are highly vulnerable to missiles www.economist.com/middle-east-...
Turkey will be central to the emerging order: in regional security architecture, corridor politics linking Asia to Europe, in refugee management for Europe, shaping Muslim public opinion & as interlocutor between the US and a more unstable MENA moderndiplomacy.eu/2026/03/03/i...
As Iran’s ability to project power through Iraq, Syria & the Levant is degraded, Turkey becomes - by geography, force posture, NATO - the most capable non-Arab Muslim power adjacent to multiple theaters: the Levant, Caucasus, Black Sea, Gulf & North Africa moderndiplomacy.eu/2026/03/03/i...
Epic Fury meets Roaring Lion - Amerika en Israël duwen de escalatieladder ruw om. Het Iraanse regime is onthoofd, de Straat van Hormuz is feitelijk gesloten, raketten vliegen over & weer vliegen. Ligt een slopende regionale oorlog op de loer? lnkd.in/eBeaNvcX
Epic Fury meets Roaring Lion: the escalation ladder is shaking. Khamenei is dead, missiles are flying, oil prices are spiking. Quick win or forever war? My latest ecrresearch.com/research/glo...
Triple T - This week's newsletter: Tariffs, Trust, Tehran
•Overexposed: Global Trade War 2.0
•Underexposed: The Trust Implosion caused by the Epstein files
•Spot on: Trump’s calibrated Iran squeeze
ecrresearch.com/global-polit...
Trump used his State of the Union to highlight Iran’s nuclear ambitions and reinforce U.S. red lines — diplomacy and deterrence now run in parallel. But rhetoric isn’t destiny. My latest analysis maps out escalation probabilities and macro consequences ecrresearch.com/research/glo...
US military deployment in the Middle East is at its highest level since 2003. Does that make a strike on Iran inevitable? Not necessarily. In my latest Global Political Analysis, I assess escalation probabilities, regime stability & market implications ecrresearch.com/research/glo...
U.S. data centers alone are projected to exceed the energy consumption of all of Japan by 2030 donmoynihan.substack.com/p/the-trust-...
A prime minister who clings on to power by handing out treats is not running a government but an ice-cream van. Bond investors may lose patience with the UK www.economist.com/leaders/2026...
With or without Sir Keir, Labour will retreat to its soft-left comfort zone, and muddle along the path of electoral least resistance. Party unity will trump boldness. For Britain, things will get worse before they get better www.economist.com/leaders/2026...
Iran hype vs. real off-ramps. Trump's alliance "disruptions" mask deep continuity. Ukraine: slow, bloody stalemate. Quick geopolitical radar out now – Overexposed, Underexposed, Spot-On. Dive in: ecrresearch.com/global-polit... What’s your take? #Geopolitics #TrumpForeignPolicy
The Great Convergence was simply the product of the Chinese commodities boom, and little more than that davidoks.blog/p/why-poor-c...
Germany's China shock captured in a handful of graphs nbarkin.substack.com/p/germanys-c...
Trump led the destruction of the global order and, perhaps because of exactly that, it sure looks like he is now left following the lead of others when it comes to the reconstruction. Or, at the very least that he is losing control over what comes next www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
The LDP simply does what any rational ruling party should do in a functioning democracy — it gives the people what they want. The people respond by usually sticking with the known quantity, as long as it keeps being responsive. This is perfectly democratic www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-takaic...
With more than two years until the next upper house election and at most four years until the next general election, Takaichi will have time and the political space to act observingjapan.substack.com/p/the-age-of...
How the US Midterms Reshape Risk, Markets & Power. My latest Global Political Analysis for ECR Research ecrresearch.com/research/glo...
Solar now attracts $500B in investments each year, more capital than all other electricity sources combined. Last year, the world installed more new solar generation than coal, gas, nuclear, wind & hydro put together chamath.substack.com/p/solar-deep...
For those still insisting Trump is Vladimir Putin's puppet: a Russian asset wouldn't have ousted Maduro – bad for Moscow – and wouldn't be threatening Tehran with regime change. Trump is willing to cross Moscow and Beijing when it suits him www.gzeromedia.com/by-ian-bremm...
It is becoming clearer that China aspires to be top gun far beyond its shores www.economist.com/china/2026/0...
The people on the top bar of the K are helping to drive a cyclical rebound with the profits they have made. The equity tail may be wagging the equity dog www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...
Tehran is nothing like Caracas - too far away, too foreign, too hostile, probably much more of a challenge even for elite special forces. The Iranian capital is 500 kilometres from the nearest area accessible to Americans in Iraq www.eurotopics.net/en/352234/wh...
In the absence of the most extreme pressure, Europe’s rich old democracies are inert things. The wolf has to be at the door. It is not enough to hear the occasional growl from afar www.ft.com/content/ebac...
Why TACO is dangerous for Europe - Pax Americana is “not coming back”, said Mark Carney last week. It is prudent to act as though he is right, but there is just enough doubt to create moral hazard in Europe www.ft.com/content/ebac...