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Jeff E. Guy

@jeffyguy

The defining struggle of our time is between those who defend the Enlightenment and those who wish to destroy it. fiat enthusiast #FBR

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Latest posts by Jeff E. Guy @jeffyguy

MAGA is about to learn how global commodities markets work. They don't expect much impact at the pumps because the US is a net exporter of oil. What they don't understand is this: US producers, like all producers, sell to the highest bidder

07.03.2026 12:27 ๐Ÿ‘ 3 ๐Ÿ” 1 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Thanks to the Roberts Court, he can only be removed through impeachment. That won't happen; we need stronger stuff.

For our entire lives, we've been told fast food is bad for us. It's time for McDonald's to step up and do its fscking job.

07.03.2026 02:59 ๐Ÿ‘ 0 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

That tracks.

07.03.2026 02:54 ๐Ÿ‘ 0 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
Unconditional Surrender

Unconditional Surrender

I see somebody's been watching war movies...

06.03.2026 19:20 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Here's where globalization fell short. We created a world in which goods, capital, and information can move freely, but people can't.

06.03.2026 17:31 ๐Ÿ‘ 2 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Kamala Harris literally made Trump's authoritarian tendencies the center piece of her campaign. The fact is a large number of people want a strong man, or at least until he stomps on *their* civil liberties.

06.03.2026 16:20 ๐Ÿ‘ 10 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

I agree. But MAGAts hear tough talk by a strong leader who refuses to sugarcoat the realities of war.

These people occupy a different reality.

06.03.2026 14:49 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

EVs have had almost no impact on America's gasoline consumption. That's because EV buyers don't crush their old vehicles. They trade them in and they remain part of the fleet.

06.03.2026 12:41 ๐Ÿ‘ 2 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

MAGA drive ginormous pick up trucks and feel entitled to cheap gas. If there's one thing they hate more than Democrats, it's high fuel prices. MAGA turned a blind eye to Trump's corruption, his crimes, and he Epstein files, but they'll hunt him with pitchforks if gas sniffs $6.00 a gallon.

06.03.2026 12:30 ๐Ÿ‘ 5 ๐Ÿ” 1 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Sorry, but free speech is universal. EVERYONE has that right, not just veterans.

06.03.2026 02:23 ๐Ÿ‘ 0 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Musk spend $300 million on the 2024 election, and Trump rewarded him by killing EV subsidies.

06.03.2026 01:58 ๐Ÿ‘ 2 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

If you're a resister and I didn't follow you back, let me know. I didn't snub you; I missed you.

06.03.2026 01:56 ๐Ÿ‘ 0 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Noem was fired!

05.03.2026 20:43 ๐Ÿ‘ 2 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

These files were entered into evidence which means they're under chain-of-custody. Never published? Sure. Deleted? No fscking way.

05.03.2026 18:11 ๐Ÿ‘ 0 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

When helicopters were lifting people off the roof of the American embassy in Saigon, support for the Vietnam War was 29%. Support for Trump's War is 26%. A lot of Republicans will have to think long and hard about this spending bill as they head into the midterm elections.

05.03.2026 03:21 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

I'm told Amazon is a model of efficiency. I bought four socks, and they arrived in three packages....

04.03.2026 21:44 ๐Ÿ‘ 0 ๐Ÿ” 1 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

America loses if they're replacements are even nuttier than they are.

04.03.2026 15:02 ๐Ÿ‘ 2 ๐Ÿ” 1 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

We should have never given the Presidency this much power. Thanks, John Roberts

04.03.2026 12:03 ๐Ÿ‘ 0 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Since America launched its Forever War in the aftermath of 9/11, here's a complete list of countries that have transitioned from authoritarianism to democracy.
1.) Tunisia
2.) Nepal

And Tunisia is backsliding. The list of countries that made the transition with US assistance is even smaller...

02.03.2026 23:05 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

He doesn't consult them.

02.03.2026 19:37 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

What real yield justifies $5400? Given a liquidity adjusted baseline of 2700, and a crisis premium 300, let's do the math.

5400 = 3000 - 750r
2400 = -750r
r = -3.2%

My assumptions are either really wrong, or a lot of people will find themselves under water for years.

02.03.2026 14:28 ๐Ÿ‘ 0 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

If you think about yellow metal as inflation hedge, a fair evaluation could align with something like this:

Gold = inverse real yield + monetary base expansion + a crisis premium

02.03.2026 14:28 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Gold rose above $5400 this morning. Does that make sense? I don't know!

Gold has no intrinsic value in the DCF sense. You can estimate fair value ranges, but not intrinsic value the way you can for Procter & Gamble.

02.03.2026 14:28 ๐Ÿ‘ 0 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Your average Trumper will be unmoved by this observation. "The US is a net exporter of oil, lib!" That's true. But US suppliers sell their products to the highest bidders, no matter where they're located. Energy is a global market.

02.03.2026 13:43 ๐Ÿ‘ 0 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
Post image

Trump is going to war with a hand tied behind his back because he doesn't understand his own base. They love large trucks, and they hate high gas prices. Iran is shutting down oil fields with drone strikes in Qatar and Saudi Arabia. These are attacks aimed at Trump's base.

02.03.2026 13:43 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

I'm starting to the Soccer Peace Prize was bullshit....

02.03.2026 13:22 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
Preview
a man is standing in front of a sign that says ' usted leadership for a stronger america ' ALT: a man is standing in front of a sign that says ' usted leadership for a stronger america '

I can think of few examples in which a popular uprising toppled a Middle Eastern autocrat: Iran 1979, Tunisia 2010, and, (maybe) Egypt 2011. None of these resulted in Western style democracies. Trumpist will need something more substantial than "Please take over."

02.03.2026 08:57 ๐Ÿ‘ 6 ๐Ÿ” 3 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

It's your claim. I want to see the numbers.

02.03.2026 07:55 ๐Ÿ‘ 0 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Revenue quantifiable even though you declines.. But what about the object of your hatred at the start of this thread, Polymarket?

02.03.2026 01:35 ๐Ÿ‘ 0 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

That says "volume" and you claimed "revenue." And your beef was with Polymarket, and this doesn't mention them

02.03.2026 00:50 ๐Ÿ‘ 0 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0