To each their own I suppose.
07.03.2026 03:14
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To each their own I suppose.
Watching S1E1 of The Pitt. It’s gotta get better right? Is this just the usual crappy pilot after which they bring in a showrunner that knows what they’re doing?
One of those legendary pieces of online statistical lore that everyone needs be aware of.
You might check out this paper by Cernat and @daob.nl that seems along the lines of what you’re thinking. Not substantively but as a method for doing it.
With very large numbers of n’s you don’t need randomization, and with LLM’s we can generate very large numbers of n’s, so I think all of science is solved by now. I don’t see any problems with this.
Nobody can post unless they’re connected over dialup at speeds not to exceed 14.4 kbps.
Can. Not. Wait.
If they don’t know it THAT’S 50 DKP MINUS!!!
Woke up and chose violence, eh?
Would pay good money for this.
This chapter from a volume edited by Cernat might be of interest.
academic.oup.com/book/39454/c...
This is a good question for @daob.nl. This is very much in his area of expertise. Alexandru Cernat also but I don’t think he’s on here.
I see. That makes sense. As @cameronpat.bsky.social said elsewhere, I guess it depends on the estimand. Correlated measurement error is a giant morass.
E.g. if people who got the treatment remember their pre status as better than it really was, modeling change as a multivariate outcome seems like it would have the same bias as if your model was post ~ pre + treatment.
It seems like this would only be necessary if the treatment would plausibly affect the way the pre condition is reported. Although in that case, an estimand measuring change since baseline seems of limited utility (although maybe it does in context).
“average monkey asks 3 questions a day" factoid actualy just statistical error. average monkey asks 0 questions per year. Curious georg, who lives in cave & asks over 10,000 each day, is an outlier adn should not have been counted
lol, I wouldn’t know!
I’m probably going to buy it, play it for about an hour, get freaked out by something creepy and never touch again. This is my standard MO for Resident Evil games.
Always
Yeah, I really can't stress enough that AI code assistants royally fuck up statistical analyses. And they do it with absolute confidence.
data.table - for when there aren’t enough brackets in your life.
I have wanted to attend since I first heard about it!
I will be *very* interested to hear about your experience there.
Look, 1 was just a mess when it came to the gameplay.
I generally don’t presume any malfeasance. We see these kinds of results in opt-in samples for all sorts of items (e.g. see below). If you’re fielding an opt-in poll about religion because that’s what your organization cares about, these effects are just going to pop up in the results on their own.
Exciting news! We just posted an opening for a Survey Associate on @pewresearch.org's Methods team! This is an amazing opportunity for someone relatively early in their career to join what is, IMO, the most fun methods team in the business. Full description at the link below.
I think it’s less selection and more measurement error among low quality respondents. A mix of yeasaying and random/haphazard responding which will tend to overestimate relatively rare attitudes and behaviors.
Online opt-in surveys also find recent religious resurgence among U.S. young adults While this analysis focuses on claims of religious revival among young adults in the U.K., some opt-in surveys have pointed to a similar trend in the United States. Barna Group, a research organization serving Christian leaders, has used online opt-in survey data to make claims of rising churchgoing among young adults in the U.S. According to Barna, “Since 2019, both Gen Z and Millennials were the least likely generation to frequently attend church. Today, they are the most engaged.” However, surveys from Pew Research Center using random samples show no clear evidence of a religious revival among young adults. Nor is there clear evidence of religious revival in two other surveys based on random samples conducted by other organizations: the General Social Survey and the American Time Use Survey.
Is there a revival of churchgoing among US young adults? According to
Opt-in online polls: Yes
Surveys using random samples of the population: No
https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2026/01/23/has-there-been-a-christian-revival-among-young-adults-in-the-uk-recent-surveys-may-be-misleading/
So it’s not this particular position, but we do have a former intern who went on to be a finalist on Survivor.
