Mark Graph

Rent price growth still on the high side. #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon

Photo of Japanese Maple with red leaves in Parliament House courtyard

Budget Tree one week out from traditional budget day

Election day - polls There are two posts this morning. This is the polls post, and separately there is a betting market update . Two-party preferred There is an ...

Some light reading while you wait in the queue to vote. Two posts this morning:

(1) Polls - marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/05/elec...

(2) Betting Market - marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/05/elec...

#ausvotes #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon

Day 36 - 2025 Federal Election The election is tomorrow! Today we have two more polls:  Freshwater strategy 51.5/48.5 to Labor, and DemosAU 51/49 to Labor. The aggregation...

Updated aggregation and betting market charts - but the same story. #ausvotes #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon
marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/05/day-...

Full post from Mark Graph on potential herding of opinion polls, D-minus 2 till voting ends #auspol #ausvotes marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/05/day-...

I felt very nervous before the 2019 election because the low variance in the set of opinion polls was mathematically implausible. It turned out those polls were just wrong. I am alert to a possible repeat in 2025, albeit the low variance in 2025 is nowhere near as bad as 2019.

This smells a little odd to me. About a 1 in 69 chance that the set of all national 2pp polls since 1 April (inclusive) occurred by chance. Is it herding? Is it resampling? I don't know. But I don't like it. #auspol #ausvotes #ausecon #ausbiz

Day 32 - 2025 Federal Election Today we have a new Newspoll (52/48) in Labor's favour. The Bayesian aggregation is unchanged. We are looking at a result much like the prev...

Latest Newspoll (52/48 Labor) suggests we are looking at a repeat of the last election. #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon #ausvotes
marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...

My analysis on how the Trump Trade Wars will unfold.

markthegraph.blogspot.com/2025/04/us-t...

#usa #trump #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon

Day 30 - 2025 Federal Election At this point everyone expects Labor to form government following the election. The only question is whether it will be majority or minority...

A big movement to Labor in electorate betting. Labor is favourite in 77 seats (majority govt). Most-likely Parliament outcome is Labor on 72 seats (minority govt). #auspol #ausvotes #ausecon #ausbiz
marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...

Roy Morgan has Labor on 55.5% - better than any election result for Labor in the past 75 years. My aggregation is 52%, a similar result to the last election. #ausvotes #auspol #ausecon #ausbiz marktheballot.blogspot.com

Today we focus on those seats where independent candidates have a prospect of winning the seat. There are a few new names here that could surprise. #ausvotes #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon
marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...

Day 25 - 2025 Federal Election We have another Newspoll , in which Labor has a two-party preferred (2pp) vote share of 52 per cent (which is the same result as the previou...

Newspoll 52/48 in Labor's favour. My aggregation of pollster Labor 2pp estimates is 51.9 per cent. If the polls are right, the election result will be close to the previous election. #auspol #ausvotes #ausecon #ausbiz
marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...

Day 23 - 2025 Federal Election I have been refining my code for the individual seats market at Sportsbet.com.au . Before we get to the charts for every seat, let me take y...

Election outcome odds and probabilities for every seat. Huge betting market update. More than 300 charts. It's all half price it's all got to go. #ausvotes #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon
marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...

Day 20 - 2025 Federal Election Yesterday we had an Essential poll with Labor on 50 per cent 2pp, the Coalition on 45 per cent and 5 per cent undecided (which I make as 52....

Polls and the betting markets continue to move in Labor's favour. #ausvote #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon
marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...

Day 19 - 2025 Federal Election It is unusual for a second term government to outperform its first term 2pp vote share. Today's polls suggest it might be possible for this...

t is unusual for a second term government to outperform its first term 2pp vote share. Today's polls suggest it might be possible for this Labor government. #ausvotes #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon
marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...

Some movement on the individual seats market. #ausvotes #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon

marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...

Day 15 - 2025 Federal Election Today a YouGov poll was released. It had Labor on 52.5 per cent of the two party preferred vote share: a better result for Labor than the 2...

Updated poll aggregation charts following today's YpuGov (which had Labor 2pp at 52.5%). #ausvotes #auspol #ausecon #ausbiz

marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...

Day 13 - 2025 Federal Election Today, let's look the complete set of charts from the individual seats market. Overall, we can see another net seat with Labor in the lead. ...

Complete set of charts for the individual seats market #ausvotes #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon

marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...

(1) Another Morgan poll that seems out-of-step with the rest of the field. Out of caution, I am treating Morgan polls since mid-Feb as a different series. (2) Betting market firms to Labor. #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon

marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...

Day 11 - 2025 Federal Election Yesterday brought us a new Newspoll: 52 to 48 in Labor's favour in two party preferred terms. If repeated at an election, this would deliver...

Updated Poll aggregations - Labor in front - but minority government the most likely outcome. #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon

marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...

Day 11 - 2025 Federal Election Yesterday brought us a new Newspoll: 52 to 48 in Labor's favour in two party preferred terms. If repeated at an election, this would deliver...

Updated Poll aggregations - Labor in front - but minority government the most likely outcome. #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon

marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...

It looks like the punters are firming their views on the 2025 Federal Election. #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon

The complete set of individual seat betting market probabilities (from sportsbet.com.au) showing some movement to Labor over the past 24 hours. #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon

marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...

Some individual seat movements. #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon

The betting market still sees it as a very close race, #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon
marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...

Day 5 - 2025 Federal Election Yesterday's polls were plentiful. Roy Morgan had Labor on 53 per cent of the two party preferred vote (unchanged on its previous print a for...

A polling aggregation update. #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon

marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...

Another way to view the betting market data - stacked win probabilities for each seat (data from this morning) - sorted by Labor. #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon