Map of projected seats. Constituencies are 60 SNP, 2 Conservative, 2 Labour, 5 Lib Dem, 4 Green, 0 Alba, 0 Reform. Regional list seats are 0 SNP, 9 Conservative, 17 Labour, 0 Lib Dem, 13 Green, 0 Alba, 17 Reform. Lead party per region is Central and Lothians West SNP, Edinburgh and Lothians East Green, Glasgow SNP, Highlands and Islands SNP, Mid and Fife SNP, North East SNP, South SNP, West SNP. Gallagher Index is 14.2 - a lower index means a more proportional result.
Map of projected runners up and margins. Constituency runner ups are SNP 12, Conservative 12, Labour 31, Lib Dem 4, Green 1, Reform UK 13. In percentage terms, constituency margins of victory are 8 below 5, 10 between 5 and 10, 36 between 10 and 20, 19 above 20. Closest runner up for last list seat in each region is Central and Lothians West Green, Edinburgh and Lothians East Lib Dem, Glasgow Green, Highlands and Islands Reform UK, Mid and Fife Conservative, North East Green, South Reform UK, West Labour.
Ipsos 27 Nov - 3 Dec seat projection (vs last poll / vs 2021 on new boundaries); AMS Ideal seats:
SNP ~ 60 (+1 / -3); 40
Lab ~ 19 (-4 / -2); 23
RUK ~ 17 (nc / +17); 23
Grn ~ 17 (+1 / +7); 21
Con ~ 11 (+4 / -20); 14
LD ~ 5 (-2 / +1); 8
(Projection caveats: ballotbox.scot/projections)
