New PA poll out this morning from @fandmpoll.bsky.social.

🏛️ Gov. Race:

🔵 Shapiro: 48% (+20)
🔴 Garrity: 28%

📥 Generic Ballot

🔵 DEM: 44% (+7)
🔴 GOP: 37%

Was D+5 last quarter.

I’m surprised. He knows that Shapiro is a tough matchup, especially in a Trump midterm. Wonder if there’s other motives at play here when it comes to structure/organization.

Maybe. Depends on how much House leadership arm twists him to keep going. Even Harris barely won his district, so a generic replacement for him probably struggles, even more so in a neutral-ish environment.

Casey has never been one to be a super lazy campaigner. If you want to go for that, go for the other incumbents and good candidates who lost their races as well. Could some choices have been made better? Sure. But with a loss as narrow as his, there are so many other factors before we get to him.

I think part of this coverage is driven by how much PA Dems bombed across the board in highly visible ways related to the tipping point. IE - MI Dems lost their State House and two competitive congressional seats, but a lot less attention on those.

Too soon to be certain of long term shifts.

Interesting how PA gets this treatment despite being about in the middle of the pack of the battlegrounds this year. MI, the bluest Rust Belt state, moved even more to the right (~4.2 pts v. PA’s ~2.9).

Plus, PA moved left relative to the NPV this year! 0.1-0.2 pts right overall v. ~3.3 pts in ‘20.

Dauphin has the highest/sizable concentration of minorities in the district, so no shocker there. TBD on what they do in future cycles. Cumberland and York are much whiter.

The PA-10 area makes sense given that it’s still left trending in general. You can easily see the stronger right shifts in more Hispanic heavy areas.

The rural shifts overall in either direction were super minuscule, so I wouldn’t read too much into it.

I think there’s an appetite to make some heads roll, especially given that Philly being 2-3% better in turnout would’ve saved Casey.

Everyone’s still in shellshock mode. We’ll see.

He must have. Biden won Bucks alone by significantly more.

It depends. Don’t think Garrity does it unless she thinks she has a good shot, which in a Trump midterm is a lot less likely.

Yes, I am alive.

The recovery period of self-reflection begins now.

PA, my beloved. I failed you. Never again.

He did?

I was wondering if my timeline was messed up and if I was the only one…