Paul T. Levin

Why was this story on the front page of the UK’s Daily Telegraph — but NOT America’s leading newspapers?

I appreciate your insights, Ian!

Irans ledning är vidrig. Men förbudet mot offensiva krig uppkom av en anledning. Världen experimenterade länge med ordningar där vi avgjorde tvister med mellanstatliga krig. Det slutade med 15-20 miljoner döda i första världskriget och 70-85 i det andra.

Folkrätten är inte perfekt. Den är konservativ i det att den skyddar även elaka stater. Men enligt V-Dems senaste rapport finns 91 auktoritära regimer och endast 29 liberala demokratier. Skall vi invadera alla 91?+

Det starkaste försvaret av folkrätten kom från Tove Lifvendahl och ni kan ju själva avgöra hur helhjärtat det var...+

Samt att om man ska göra en omelett så måste man knäcka några ägg. Lite risker måste vi ta om vi vill få bort regimer vi ogillar. (Peter Wennblad)+

Argumenten som framförs är att om regimer vi ogillar bryter mot folkrätten så gäller den inte dem, och om folkrätten står i vägen för starkare ”civiliserade” stater att omkullkasta elaka regimer så gäller den inte. (Paulina Neuding)+

Good observation.

By the way, a senior Turkish official that I spoke to yesterday said that the missile shot down in Hatay was not heading for Incirlik but Cyprus. Not sure how informed they were, TBH, and I’m not sure I trust it, but this appears to be the public line anyway.

That could well be true. I think that I have heard some of the individual strikes being explained with reference to rogue local teams. At the same time, the regime clearly made a decision to strike broadly against Gulf states.

Jag har själv medverkat flera gånger i podden och gillar Andreas. Men det är tydligt att den svenska högern har inte förstått vad dagens Republikanska parti är, och inte heller har de insett vad Netanyahus Israel har blivit. De verkar inte ha lärt sig från Irakkriget alls.

Det här är kanske lite publikfriande att skriva på BlueSky men jag lyssnade på Svenskans podd Ledarredaktionen om Iran igår och det var jobbigt att höra de medverkande försöka rättfärdiga kriget. Svenskans ledarsida har tydligen nu övergivit folkrätten. +

To say that Iran’s leaders are in a bind is obviously an understatement, but they face a particular strategic dilemma: Given military superiority of 🇺🇸 & 🇮🇱, their only real deterrent is to impose costs on weaker U.S. partners, but doing so makes Iran even more isolated & vulnerable.

General cargo (stolen grain) vessel CAFFA was boarded by Swedish Coast Guard and police special forces 3 hours ago. Reason stated: false flag.

Now drifting south of Trelleborg, south Sweden. Company: SE coast guard vessels

Background below.

I know that the people who need to read this aren’t here, but here goes:

Rules of engagement aren’t for the enemy. They’re for you. They’re for your soldiers when they’re captured or wounded. They’re for your civilians when they’re in range of the enemy. They’re for your allies, to reassure.

My most conspiratorial take to-date: What if this is the point? Or at least an acceptable & useful side effect of the war:

A massive refugee crisis would benefit the European far right parties that this US administration has vowed to help. Those parties wouldn’t lecture Bibi on human rights either.

I'm so confused. I thought all we had to worry about were European globalists erasing white Christian civilization. The U.S. National Security Strategy said nothing about Russia being a threat!

Russia is providing Iran intelligence to target U.S. forces, officials say The targeting information has included the locations of American warships and aircraft in the Middle East, the officials said.

Can it get any clearer how bad Trump is for America? His strategy is to bully & threaten longtime faithful allies while cozying up to the dictator in Moscow, who does this:

"Since the war began Saturday, Russia has passed Iran the locations of U.S. military assets, including warships and aircraft".

With apologies to my old infantry squad leaders, but Hegseth is an illustration of what happens when you promote someone like 20 ranks above where they should be. He'd be a terrible Sergeant, grumbling against "stupid" rules of engagement, but he belongs at that rank, yelling at PFCs to shave.

Thanks! Will watch.

From the First Lady of Iraq. (Her party—the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK)—has not to my knowledge joined the recently formed coalition of 5 Iranian Kurdish parties.)

Du har gott omdöme! 😜
Tack det var snällt sagt.

Ultimately, the problem comes down to the fact that this war is being perpetrated by Trump & Netanyahu. One unreliable leader who couldn’t even spell “strategy” and another whose strategy is to basically just smash and destabilize all perceived adversaries in the region.

Finally, opening a larger Iranian Kurdish front from Iraq may also pose the risk of regional contagion. Iraq, Pakistan, Turkey are some of the immediate contenders for getting dragged in or affected by an escalated ethnic conflict in Iran.+

Then there is the risk of success… A successful Kurdish insurgency could plunge Iran, a country four times the size of Syria into civil war. That could dwarf the 2015 refugee crisis.+

Risks: Kurdish leaders would be taking a tremendous risk given that Trump could simply tire of the whole thing, declare victory, and end the war, leaving the Kurds to fend for themselves.+

“The autonomous region in Iraqi Kurdistan was established thanks to a US-enforced UN-authorized no-fly zone following Saddam's brutal crackdown on the Kurds who rebelled in 1991, and now the Iranian Kurds are similarly asking for a no-fly zone.”

Opportunities:
“The Kurdish groups who have been fighting for collective Kurdish rights or for Kurdish autonomy have few options but to rely on external support since all the regional powers want to prevent those things.”+

Opportunities: “The Operation JAWBREAKER and ENDURING FREEDOM model shows that even a small US military/intelligence presence can have an outsized impact and radically transform the battlefield, giving local forces without much heavy equipment a de facto top-notch air force.”+

The Kurdish Gamble Risks and opportunities in Western Iran

I wrote a short piece about the opportunities and risks of a US & Israeli-led incursion by Iranian Kurds in Western Iran. (Spoiler: There are more risks than opportunities.)