Giorgio Cafiero

How the UAE Became Serbia’s Most Important Arab Partner - AGSI Through its increasing ties with Serbia, the UAE has secured a lasting strategic foothold in the Western Balkans, and Serbia has gained an influential Arab partner that is likely to remain central to…

Beyond the economic benefits of bilateral ties, relations with the UAE and other Middle Eastern countries have enabled the Vucic government to frame Belgrade’s ties with the Islamic world in markedly positive terms. @giorgiocafiero.bsky.social

Gaza as a post-UN experiment: Inside Trump’s Board of Peace The Board of Peace for Gaza signals a shift away from multilateral institutions to personalised, transactional diplomacy driven by private business interests

@giorgiocafiero.bsky.social observes that "the proposed Board of Peace does not read as a credible mechanism for justice or reconciliation, but rather as a hollow spectacle." He quotes me, @sarahleah1.bsky.social, @maricalc.bsky.social, and Mouin Rabbani.

www.newarab.com/analysis/gaz...

LIVE: US Regime Change FAILS in Venezuela | ICE Killing in Minneapolis YouTube video by BreakThrough News

The Freedom Side LIVE w/ @raniaakhalek.bsky.social & Eugene Puryear "US Regime Change FAILS in Venezuela | ICE Killing in Minneapolis"@carlosron.bsky.social, Andreína Chávez Alava, Maureen Tkacik, @giorgiocafiero.bsky.social @btnewsroom.bsky.social #BreakThroughNews www.youtube.com/watch?v=XTYF...

How Trump’s National Security Strategy impacts the Middle East Trump’s new National Security Strategy prioritises transactional geopolitics in the Middle East, emphasising Gulf ties while pivoting from Israel-first policies

I told @giorgiocafiero.bsky.social "the authors of the NSS may want to delay their victory lap until the end of the Trump administration. As Proverbs 16:18 warns, pride goeth before a fall."

Read his latest article for @thenewarab.bsky.social.

www.newarab.com/analysis/how...

Why is Trump cracking down on the Muslim Brotherhood? Trump’s executive order is less about specific Muslim Brotherhood chapters and more about how foreign lobbying and culture wars shape US policy

“When the US brands such actors ‘terrorists,’ it reinforces the longstanding narrative that Washington is hostile not just to Islam but also Muslim civil society & will side with any autocrat who promises ‘stability’ ..........,” writes @giorgiocafiero.bsky.social
www.newarab.com/analysis/why...

@giorgiocafiero.bsky.social for @thenewarab.bsky.social: “Occupation and opportunity: Israel's strategy in post-Assad Syria” www.newarab.com/analysis/occ... Includes my thoughts:

F-35s, AI, and defence: MbS and the Saudi comeback in Washington Trump’s lavish welcome for Mohammed bin Salman marked both his official rehabilitation and a sweeping strategic reset of US-Saudi ties

@giorgiocafiero.bsky.social's most recent article in @thenewarab.bsky.social about the Mohammed bin Salman's visit includes my comments.

www.newarab.com/analysis/f-3...

Gulf Diplomacy Eases Afghanistan-Pakistan Tensions - AGSI Gulf Arab states are using their diplomatic, financial, and religious leverage to try and de-escalate rising Afghanistan-Pakistan tensions.

Amid escalating tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan, GCC states have emerged as pragmatic and influential actors promoting de-escalation, stability, and dialogue. @giorgiocafiero.bsky.social

Israel and the Gulf: From potential partner to a growing threat Gulf states are increasingly viewing Israel not as a potential partner, but as a growing threat to regional stability and security

Across the Arab world, Israel’s provocations are widely seen as a liability. For Gulf capitals and their allies, long-term stability and regional security outweigh any fleeting gestures or transactional promises from Tel Aviv. By @giorgiocafiero.bsky.social
www.newarab.com/analysis/isr...

It is well-worth reading this fresh analysis about the Southern Transitional Council by @giorgiocafiero.bsky.social for @arabcenterdc.org.

Israel, the UAE, and Yemen’s South: The Politics of Unlikely Alliances Having emerged in 2017 from Yemen’s Southern Movement, the Southern Transitional Council (STC) is the preeminent political and military force in southern Yemen. Since its founding, Aidarous al-Zubaidi...

Giorgio Cafiero writes about the Southern Transitional Council’s willingness to normalize relations with #Israel if it establishes an independent state in southern #Yemen. @giorgiocafiero.bsky.social

arabcenterdc.org/resource/isr...

Gaza’s Armed Fragmentation: Clans, Militias, and Rival Power Centers • Stimson Center Many of the groups are supported by Israeli authorities who see Palestinian fragmentation as a way to both contain Hamas and to perpetuate Israel’s occupation.

A most useful piece by @giorgiocafiero.bsky.social explaining who's who among the armed factions in Gaza.
www.stimson.org/2025/gazas-a...

Gulf Diplomacy Eases Afghanistan-Pakistan Tensions - AGSI Gulf Arab states are using their diplomatic, financial, and religious leverage to try and de-escalate rising Afghanistan-Pakistan tensions.

Gulf Diplomacy Eases Afghanistan-Pakistan Tensions @giorgiocafiero.bsky.social agsi.org/analysis/gul...

Netanyahu’s last war? The struggle for Israel’s political future Whether Benjamin Netanyahu clings to power or is cast aside, his legacy is one of permanently shifting Israel’s political landscape to the far right

@giorgiocafiero.bsky.social analyzes Israel's political future in his latest piece for @thenewarab.bsky.social. Giorgio quotes me in his article, among others.

www.newarab.com/analysis/net...

Iran’s Messaging After Israel’s Qatar Strike - Arab Gulf States Institute Iran has moved quickly to try to capitalize on cracks in U.S.-Gulf relations after Israel’s unprecedented attack on Hamas officials in Qatar.

While Iran’s efforts to position itself as a credible alternative to Western security guarantees have met with little practical success, this narrative remains a central theme in its diplomatic outreach to neighboring Arab states. @giorgiocafiero.bsky.social

@giorgiocafiero.bsky.social for @theipaper.com on Tom Barrack's dumb south Lebanon economic zone idea: inews.co.uk/news/world/t...

Includes my thoughts 👇🏻

Geopolitical Pressures Dismantled Europe’s Iran Engagement - Arab Gulf States Institute With the E3 triggering the JCPOA’s snapback mechanism and aligning more closely with Washington’s hard-line stance, Europe’s role as an independent diplomatic actor in Tehran is effectively over.

The European trio operates in a sharply different environment shaped by East-West divisions, which helps explain the E3’s hardening stance toward Iran. @giorgiocafiero.bsky.social agsi.org/analysis/geo...

How does the Kremlin view Iran-US diplomacy? The nuclear talks between Iran and the United States, which have taken place in Muscat and Rome under Omani auspices, are “reassuring” to Russia, which has high stakes in the outcome and seeks to cons...

My latest @amwajmedia.bsky.social article is about #Russia's perspective on American-Iranian nuclear talks. This piece quotes Ghoncheh Tazmini, Mark Katz, and Samuel Ramani.

amwaj.media/en/article/h...

What to expect from Trump’s high-stakes Middle East visit Analysis: Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE reflects their importance to US foreign policy as regional powerhouses with deep pockets.

My latest @thenewarab.bsky.social piece is about #Trump's upcoming #Gulf visit. This article quotes @andreaskrieg.bsky.social, Dina Esfandiary, Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, Anna Jacobs, and Courtney Freer. www.newarab.com/analysis/wha... #SaudiArabia #Qatar #UAE

UAE may need al-Sharaa as much as he needs it. Here's why. New Syrian president got a warm welcome this week, as he holds out for sanctions relief. So what does Abu-Dhabi stand to gain?

“Rather than signalling political endorsement/readiness to leverage influence in 🇺🇸 on Syria’s behalf, 🇦🇪’s engagement stems from more pragmatic concerns, i.e a desire to avoid being excluded in a rapidly evolving regional order shaped by the involvement of 🇹🇷 and 🇸🇦” I told @giorgiocafiero.bsky.social

UAE may need al-Sharaa as much as he needs it. Here's why. New Syrian president got a warm welcome this week, as he holds out for sanctions relief. So what does Abu-Dhabi stand to gain?

"The UAE is being pragmatic about Syria’s new reality. Abu Dhabi assesses that by minimizing friction with Syria’s new government, it can steer Damascus away from conduct that could threaten Emirati interests."

By @giorgiocafiero.bsky.social.

responsiblestatecraft.org/al-sharaaa-u...

Mideast mediator Oman at the center of a key first Iran-US meeting over Tehran's nuclear program Iran and the United States will meet in Oman for the first talks in President Donald Trump’s second term over Tehran’s rapidly advancing nuclear program

I spoke to @jongambrell.bsky.social about #Oman's role as a diplomatic bridge between #Washington and #Tehran.

www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/0...

Mass citizenship stripping in Kuwait cements authoritarian turn, critics say Amwaj.media offers news, opinion and analysis on Iran, Iraq and the Arabian Peninsula - coverage of the region, from the region.

Read @giorgiocafiero.bsky.social's article about the increasing rate of citizenship revocation in Kuwait. He quotes me, @seanyom.bsky.social, Courtney Freer, and Michael Herb.

amwaj.media/en/article/m...

Turkey and Russia Will Remain ‘Frenemies’ in Syria After Assad’s fall, Turkey’s and Russia’s positions in Syria have flipped. Their coordination in the country is set to stay the same.

Here is my latest @wpr.bsky.social piece...

#Turkey and #Russia Will Remain ‘Frenemies’ in #Syria

www.worldpoliticsreview.com/syria-turkey...

Israel and Turkey: The showdown that could shape Syria s future Analysis: Turkey and Israel are the two main players to fill power vacuums in post-Assad Syria, and friction between Ankara and Tel Aviv is intensifying.

My new @thenewarab.bsky.social piece analyzes how the situation in post-Assad Syria is fueling lots of tension between #Turkey and #Israel. This article quotes @ambgordongray.bsky.social, Matthew Bryza, Gokhan Ereli, Mustafa Caner, and Joshua Landis. www.newarab.com/analysis/isr...

Geopolitical Dynamics Surrounding Iraq’s Ambitious Development Road Project Leveraging its geography and resources to serve as an economic bridge between Asia and Europe is not a new concept for Iraq. In the 1980s, the country promoted the “Dry Canal” idea of offering a comme...

After returning from #Baghdad late last month, I produced this analysis for @arab-center-dc.bsky.social.

arabcenterdc.org/resource/geo... #Iraq #DevelopmentRoad #Qatar #UAE #Turkey #Iran #China #Kuwait #Europe #SuezCanal #BeltandRoadInitiative

Could Lebanese-Syrian relations move past Assad, Hezbollah era? Analysis: Amid regional turmoil from Israeli expansionism, will the new governments in Syria and Lebanon manage to overcome historic divisions and start fresh?

After returning from #Iraq and #Lebanon, where I gained some insight into some regional perspectives on post-Assad #Syria, I wrote this @newarab.com.web.brid.gy about the future of Lebanon-Syria relations. www.newarab.com/analysis/cou...

How Turkey is poised to be a key player in Syria's next chapter Analysis: From revamping the economy to political, military, and bureaucratic capacity building, Turkey will have a key influence in shaping the new Syria.

My latest @thenewarab.bsky.social piece is about the future of #Syria-#Turkey relations. This piece quotes @aronlund.bsky.social, @carolinerose8.bsky.social, Qutaiba Idlbi, and Mustafa Caner. www.newarab.com/analysis/how...

Oil dollars and weapons sales mean Trump needs Saudi Arabia more than ever Inside Trump and Saudi Arabia's 'unashamedly transactional' relationship

Quoted here by @giorgiocafiero.bsky.social alongside @andreaskrieg.bsky.social, Neil Quilliam, and Amb. Patrick Theros on the limits of the U.S.-Saudi 'bromance' -- like his first term, the two do not have the same strategic interests, especially on oil prices.

What to expect from Trump 2.0's Middle East policy Analysis: Trump's administration is divided between hawkish neocons and 'restrainers', but which group will have the most influence on US Middle East policy?

Writing for @thenewarab.bsky.social today, @giorgiocafiero.bsky.social analyzes Middle East policy in the second Trump administration. He quotes me, @thomasjuneau.bsky.social, @tparsi.bsky.social, @shadihamid.bsky.social, Neil Quilliam, and Ferial Saeed.

www.newarab.com/analysis/wha...