Got round to reading this useful summary of the state of dollar dominance: @fabianpape.bsky.social @johannespetry.bsky.social & Pforr predict a "financial interregnum" as Trump erodes trust in the hegemon. Notable for Mideast watchers: Gulf states feature heavily! www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
Based on their recent @iojournal.bsky.social article Tobias Pforr, @fabianpape.bsky.social & @johannespetry.bsky.social, wrote a short piece for @theconversation.con about the future of the dollar -
https://cup.org/48E2cW9
Based on our recent @iojournal.bsky.social article, Toby, @fabianpape.bsky.social and I also wrote a piece in the @faznet.bsky.social on the future of global monetary order - outlining three trajectories for the beginning financial interregnum after dollar hegemony
www.faz.net/pro/weltwirt...
Based on our recent IO article, @fabianpape.bsky.social, Toby Pforr and I wrote a short piece for @theconversation.com about the future of the dollar - check it out! 🙂
theconversation.com/is-the-domin...
How to make sense of China’s rise? For Phenomenal World I wrote something on its changing role in global finance.
China is not building a dollar-style empire of sprawling markets and speculative finance but something leaner, more functional & tightly managed.
www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/a-s...
Thrilled to see our latest paper published in @iojournal.bsky.social! 🥳
"Dollar Diminished: The Unmaking of US Financial Hegemony Under Trump" co-authored with Tobias Pforr (@eui-eu.bsky.social) and @fabianpape.bsky.social 🙂
doi.org/10.1017/S002...
New essay, written for the excellent @transitionsec.bsky.social
Propelled by the climatic and hegemonic transitions, military-imperial forms of state capitalism are confiscating our collective right to a safe, green, tech-powered future.
transitionsecurity.org/imperial-sta...
@campolis.bsky.social
🚨New publication with Kristijan Kotarski:
Enduring Structural Power? Assessing the Dominance of the Anglosphere in Global Finance Before the Trump Turn
Includes novel visualizations of global finance (banking, portfolio inv & FDI) showing persistent US centrality
hrcak.srce.hr/clanak/487488
This looks excellent! Amazing graphs, congrats @janfichtner.bsky.social
"The AI infrastructure build-out is so gigantic that in the past 6 months, it contributed more to the growth of the U.S. economy than /all of consumer spending/" - @mims.bsky.social
My takeway is that The US has gone ALL IN BET OF THE 21st Century on AI, while China has gone all in on green tech
The FT got an ex-central banker to write a defence of cb independence.
amazing how spectre of fiscal dominance spooks Haldane into forgetting innovations in central banking he literally introduced during the crisis, like sovereign market market of last resort
www.ft.com/content/2372...
New (open access!) paper out now with Eric Helleiner and Hongying Wang in New Political Economy:
"A less reluctant (green) Atlas? Explaining the People’s Bank of China’s distinctive environmental shift"
1/ A brief thread 🧵
doi.org/10.1080/1356...
journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....
Great essay on the madness of the "dead internet" and AI slop, drawing on @maxread.info www.ft.com/content/5d06...
European car executives never miss a chance to denounce climate regulation, even when it's well known China ALSO imposed such rules on its own industry.
No guys, it was your complacent asses.
Higher ed is the most geographically distributed major growth-generating sector we have. The destruction of universities makes no sense if your priorities are growth, or rebalancing the economy.
Only ideological prejudice explains this course of action.
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
Fitting amidst all the geopolitical turmoil of the last days, my article on global finance in China in an age of geopolitics was just published in @ripejournal.bsky.social 🥳
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
While many Chinese businesses are reeling from the trade war, Qi, the Maga merchandise maker, brushed off any suggestion his might suffer. Trump supporters, he said, were willing to pay any price for items bearing the image of their beloved president - and US suppliers were making such a huge profit on them that they could afford to partially absorb the tariff impact. A Trump baseball cap, for instance, cost only Rmb7.50 ($1) to produce. Tariffs might raise that cost to Rmbo, but the caps were being sold for $50 in the US. "American sellers could even use the tariffs as an excuse to raise the price to $60 - yet the extra cost will still be borne by the US consumers, " said Qi.
Quite wonderful find by this FT team. A Chinese small business that makes MAGA merch on.ft.com/4cAH6tE
Maybe of interest to @adamtooze.bsky.social that FOMC members already complained about 'fan-fi' after the 2019 repo spike (from Oct 4, 2019 meeting)
It's that time of crisis again where Adam Tooze enters his relentless live-blogging phase
do feel free to read my more serious thoughts on it though...
bsky.app/profile/erin...
taking that thought further, swaps were not even essential in the GFC. Foreign banks were major borrowers at Fed discount window, TAF, and TARP. Of course politically inconvenient to have huge exposure to foreign private banks, so swaps much easier. but necessary...? (ok maybe pushing the point...)
Given that FIMA repo facility use is shielded from FOI requests, it'll be politically easier as well as no-one needs to know who's borrowing & how much.
My contrarian take is that swap lines are entirely overhyped. they offer Europeans (and some others) preferential terms of dollar borrowing in crises. without swap lines, the ECB etc can use the FIMA repo facility like everyone else.
“Everyone is worried about the basis trade”
Check this great article in hedge funds by Paul.
Among other things it uses an update to our article www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/... (check update here: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....), linking MMF to hedge funds’ basis trade through sponsored repo 1/
In his 2021 NPE article on swap lines, @fabianpape.bsky.social points not only to their backstopping/stabilizing function, but also their use as a lever of US monetary policy to intervene in offshore dollar markets and pull global capital back to the US. www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
Strongly agree with this.
The Labour government, with a majority in Parliament, is apparently planning to redistribute from the disabled to US Big Tech.
www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
European officials beginning to wargame what it would look like if the Fed pulled their swaps under political pressure.
The Fed got the State Dept's OK for each of its swap lines in 2008, particularly important for EM ones. Unclear tho if it'd pull one of the standing ones from Europe, Japan, etc.
I can't help noticing that Labour promised not to introduce a wealth tax and not to return to austerity and that only one of those promises has been kept.
