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John McTernan

@johnmct

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Latest posts by John McTernan @johnmct

Get ready to be annoyed when petrol prizes go up and a) a bunch of politicos declare the government's poll ratings have gone down because Starmer didn't go in with the US on Iran and b) a bunch of politicos who support the war blame the government for increased energy costs.

07.03.2026 22:08 👍 354 🔁 67 💬 17 📌 1
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DHS wants to build a system to surveil Americans’ travel records

A Saturday scoop from @schuylermitchell.bsky.social: Previously unreported documents show that DHS wants to build a tool that would track personal travel data, including passenger names and their itineraries. Last year, a similar program was shuttered over public outcry.

07.03.2026 22:30 👍 192 🔁 143 💬 12 📌 6

And you can read the whole review on Substack too.

substack.com/@rostaylor24...

07.03.2026 17:45 👍 19 🔁 8 💬 2 📌 0
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I've got my eye on you...

07.03.2026 10:08 👍 2 🔁 3 💬 0 📌 0
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Meanwhile, Spain's massive investment in renewables is paying dividends now: with prices for Spanish industry and consumers low and stable compared with other European economies.

www.ft.com/content/ac77...

06.03.2026 16:39 👍 564 🔁 280 💬 14 📌 28
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Merz Warns of Economic Damage Due to ‘Endless’ War Against Iran German Chancellor Friedrich Merz warned the US and Israel against waging an “endless war” against Iran that could lead to the disintegration of the whole Middle Eastern state, a new migration crisis i...

Fascinating to watch 🇫🇷, then 🇬🇧, then 🇮🇹, now 🇩🇪 start to acknowledge what 🇪🇸's government recognised from the very start: the Trump-Netanyahu war on Iran is a reckless intervention conducted without regard for rules of war and without a strategy for what comes next.

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

06.03.2026 16:37 👍 218 🔁 120 💬 6 📌 8

The modern country (post-Franco) is the creation of PSOE.

07.03.2026 15:01 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

The marginal change is to prefer

Broad popularity (acceptable to half of the voters)

Vs

Intense popularity (even if somebody else is preferred by most voters)

07.03.2026 13:29 👍 4 🔁 2 💬 1 📌 0
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It’s time to end Britain’s first-past-the-post election lottery The Gorton and Denton by-election confirmed just how capricious our electoral system has become

I think there is a vg case for the Alternative Vote (pluralist majoritarianism) UK's evolving party system - not least as of balanced use for voters on different sides of political spectrum. It allows sincere voting by every voter + strategic choices by those who care
www.ft.com/content/38d8...

06.03.2026 21:57 👍 275 🔁 83 💬 28 📌 22

This is a social democrat.

07.03.2026 13:19 👍 183 🔁 27 💬 1 📌 0

Other things equal, the LRB.

We get both (& my wife writes for both), but there’s a lot more in the LRB on topics other than, e.g., US Supreme Court jurisprudence, the state of the Democrats, & art shows in Manhattan, and for most people Over Here wanting hinterland that is probably preferable.

07.03.2026 09:41 👍 1 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0

Good news: can be reasonably sure BLS numbers aren’t being manipulated.

06.03.2026 13:39 👍 47 🔁 3 💬 2 📌 1

quite apart from Kemi Badenoch's dismal performance on BBC Breakfast, minimising the work of the RAF, she spoke of Labour 'not being built' for conflict because they came into power to do things like 'breakfast clubs' in such a disparaging way, like feeding kids is a joke ambition

06.03.2026 11:52 👍 632 🔁 114 💬 59 📌 20

So, the really revealing part for me was in her Today programme interview where she claims we've learned the lessons if Iraq:

- Be prepared
- Have a plan
- Have an endgame

Then, when it is pointed out that none of these things apply here, waffles for over a minute about arrows and archers.

06.03.2026 14:31 👍 29 🔁 9 💬 4 📌 0

As I'm always saying: bring back the pamphlet!

There's a big space for non-fiction writing that sits somewhere between the long-read (c.5k words) and the full book (c.80k words).

06.03.2026 16:18 👍 40 🔁 6 💬 7 📌 0

"Labour came into government to do breakfast clubs, not to invade Iran. I came into office to invade Iran."

06.03.2026 14:25 👍 209 🔁 40 💬 14 📌 2
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Labour is suffering from a bad case of “long Morgan” Chasing Reform voters on immigration is a bad strategy that is being badly executed by this government

What I describe as “Long Morgan” in my NS piece:

www.newstatesman.com/comment/2026...

06.03.2026 17:15 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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Starmer is facing a cocktail of dissent that is growing ever more potent After the Greens’ byelection win, PM’s failure to make a progressive offer has angered Labour’s soft-left majority

www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

06.03.2026 14:48 👍 2 🔁 2 💬 3 📌 2
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Outraged and outplayed: how we lost the Brexit wars Morgan Jones’s new book unpicks the chaos of the campaign for a second referendum

Free to read on Substack: my, let’s say still quite furious, review of @morganj0nes.bsky.social’s book on the People’s Vote campaign.

substack.com/@rostaylor24...

06.03.2026 16:41 👍 17 🔁 5 💬 3 📌 1
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Trump's ‘move fast and break things’ war slams into economy South Asian and Gulf countries may get hit particularly hard, mostly on energy, remittances, and agriculture. Here's how.

Very useful from @rajakorman.bsky.social on the economic impacts across the Global South.

responsiblestatecraft.org/war-ian-glob...

06.03.2026 16:44 👍 13 🔁 5 💬 1 📌 0

👍🏿

06.03.2026 16:32 👍 7 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0
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8 Badass Librarians We Need to Celebrate This International Women’s Day In the late Victorian era, Melvil Dewey, inventor of the Dewey Decimal system (and a womanizer) argued that women make excellent librarians because we have “a clear head, strong hand… and great hea…

8 Badass Librarians We Need to Celebrate This International Women’s Day lithub.com/8-badass-lib...

06.03.2026 12:17 👍 9 🔁 4 💬 0 📌 0

So a tiny minority more than previous generations holds more misogynistic views. But don’t let that stop the narrative.

06.03.2026 09:54 👍 28 🔁 6 💬 1 📌 0

thanks

06.03.2026 13:20 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

No better reason for the UK declining to be part of the attack.

06.03.2026 11:09 👍 9 🔁 1 💬 2 📌 0
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Sánchez’s principled stand against Trump matters. So does Merz’s silence Spain’s leader has taken a strong position in refusing the US demand to use Spanish bases to strike Iran. Europe should show solidarity in the face of Trump’s threats.

Pedro Sánchez has taken a strong position in refusing the US demand to use Spanish bases to strike Iran. Europe should show solidarity with Spain in the face of Donald Trump’s threats. https://bit.ly/4l7IYhs

06.03.2026 08:00 👍 21 🔁 7 💬 0 📌 0

These headlines should always read “New secondary moderns set to return”, since that’s where most kids will go under that system.

06.03.2026 07:26 👍 187 🔁 56 💬 11 📌 0
Immigration was central both to the 2016 Brexit referendum campaign and to the political narratives that followed it. Yet the trajectory of migration to the UK since the referendum bears little resemblance to the expectations — or promises — articulated at the time. This paper provides an overview and interpretation of developments since 2016, focusing on three interrelated themes. First, it describes trends in migration flows and stocks, highlighting the sharp fall in EU migration, the compensating increase in non-EU migration, and the role of both policy and economic developments in driving these trends.  Second, it examines the economic and labour market impacts of these changes over 201625. Third, it analyses the post-Brexit policy framework and, in particular, the Labour government’s approach since 2024. The paper concludes by reflecting on the implications for future UK migration policy and for the wider political economy of Brexit.

Immigration was central both to the 2016 Brexit referendum campaign and to the political narratives that followed it. Yet the trajectory of migration to the UK since the referendum bears little resemblance to the expectations — or promises — articulated at the time. This paper provides an overview and interpretation of developments since 2016, focusing on three interrelated themes. First, it describes trends in migration flows and stocks, highlighting the sharp fall in EU migration, the compensating increase in non-EU migration, and the role of both policy and economic developments in driving these trends. Second, it examines the economic and labour market impacts of these changes over 201625. Third, it analyses the post-Brexit policy framework and, in particular, the Labour government’s approach since 2024. The paper concludes by reflecting on the implications for future UK migration policy and for the wider political economy of Brexit.

My new @iza.org/LISER paper

Control Without Credibility: Immigration to the UK Since the Brexit Referendum

docs.iza.org/dp18419.pdf

05.03.2026 17:34 👍 17 🔁 13 💬 2 📌 0
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Iran turns to cheap drones as US and Israel target missile launchers Shahed and other projectiles dominate Tehran’s retaliation

This is an excellent read. www.ft.com/content/218b... Iran turns to cheap drones as US and Israel target missile launchers

05.03.2026 20:01 👍 14 🔁 6 💬 1 📌 0

Points to power of symbols.

Cutting winter fuel payments was so austerity coded it doesn’t matter it has been restored, it’s an emblem because it was attempted.

And sticks because it is inexplicable.

05.03.2026 23:01 👍 6 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0