Using regional employment data, the map shows which parts of Europe are most exposed to the rise in Chinese import competition across manufacturing industries. The results highlight the industrial core of Germany and the manufacturing belt of CEE.
Happy to say my new book, “Controlling Contagion”, comes out next month. 700 years of tackling pandemics. Not all bad news…
press.princeton.edu/books/hardco...
Important work here
The World Needs Europe to Get Its Act Together – Fast by Dani Rodrik SPOT ON @drodrik.bsky.social @projectsyndicate.bsky.social prosyn.org/TWmTfey
Today on a special emergency episode of Shift Key: I’m joined by the great @jonasnahm.com to discuss the big SCOTUS tariff ruling; what it means for solar, EVs, and electricity; and why it’s time (alas) to learn about the other tariff powers the president can use — as well as their limitations.
Ottawa’s shift away from US defence manufacturers aims to create 125,000 jobs ft.trib.al/85RYA9n
A post on threads from user stephens_bens. It reads 'I'll always remember an interview with Steve Buscemi on Bulleye, Jesse Thorn asked him "As an actor with many decades of varied and outstanding roles across your career, does it ever bother you that one of the things you will most be remembered for is a 3-second gif in which you're wearing a backwards baseball cap and carrying a skateboard?" And without missing a beat, Buscemi replied "I'm carrying *two* skateboards." And you know what? He is.' Below that is a screen cap of Buscemi's famous "fellow kids" moment.
I never noticed this either.
Wow
SCOOP: 404 Media is publishing a version of the user guide for ELITE, a tool Palantir made for ICE which brings up dossiers on individual people and provides a “confidence score” of their address.
The full user guide here:
BIG news from @bloomberg.com, which confirms that ICE has gone ahead and *purchased* multiple commercial warehouses with the aim of converting them into mass detention camps.
This is likely to be the big detention story of 2026 — literal warehousing of people.
www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...
That’s some alignment
We’re simply in the zone where we continually watch people get executed on video
Cost of living looks dismal
Two plots of regression estimates of the Hispanic vs non-Hispanic effects of Secure Communities on the share of crimes reported to police and the share of persons victimized
Increased deportations led to more crimes against Hispanics but fewer reports to the police
New research on how immigration enforcement undermines public safety and increases vulnerability, from Gonçalves Jácome Weisburst
Thank u
Who's Afraid of the Minimum Wage? Measuring the Impacts on Independent Businesses Using Matched U.S. Tax Returns* Nirupama L Rao, Max Risch The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Volume 141, Issue 1, February 2026, Pages 373-427, https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjaf053 Published: 10 December 2025 Article history V PDF • Split View 66 Cite P Permissions < Share V Abstract A common concern surrounding minimum wage policies is their impact on independent businesses, which are often feared to be less able to bear or pass on cost increases. We examine how these typically small and medium-size firms accommodate minimum wage increases along product and labor market margins using a matched owner-firm-worker panel data set drawn from the universe of U.S. tax records over a 10-year period, and using state minimum wage changes as identifying variation. We find that on average, firms in highly exposed industries do not substantially reduce employment-they do not lay off workers but moderately reduce part-time hiring. Instead, these firms are able to fully finance the new labor costs with new revenues, leaving average owner profits unchanged. Higher wage floors, however, forestall entry, particularly for less productive firms, reducing the number of independent firms operating in these industries by roughly 2%. Yet these industries do not shrink; instead, incumbent responses and strong positive selection among entrants reshape industries that rely heavily on low-wage workers, yielding fewer but more productive firms after the cost shock. We also take a worker-level perspective to examine how potentially vulnerable individuals are affected by minimum wage increases. Using panels of low-earning and young workers, we find that their average earnings rise substantially with the minimum wage, while they are no less likely to be employed. Worker transitions indicate that minimum wage increases boost retention and that worker reallocation from independent firms toward corporations buffers dis…
New QJE for the minimum wage literature uses IRS data to study effects on small and medium size businesses. The effects seem…very good
academic.oup.com/qje/article/...
Crooked Timber needs assistance. Surely we can get this done for one of the great OG academic blogs.
im sorry what
SCOOP: Internal ICE material and testimony from an official obtained by 404 Media provides the clearest link yet between the technological infrastructure Palantir is building for ICE and the agency’s activities on the ground.
Inside the app called ELITE—what ICE uses to find neighborhoods to raid.
This week, 404 Media obtained material that explains how Tangles and Webloc, two surveillance systems ICE recently purchased, work. Webloc can track phones without a warrant and follow their owners home or to their employer.
Watch now:
Why Underachievers Dominate Secret Police Organizations: Evidence from Autocratic Argentina Adam Scharpf Christian Gläßel Abstract: Autocrats depend on a capable secret police. Anecdotal evidence, however, often characterizes agents as surprisingly mediocre in skill and intellect. To explain this puzzle, this article focuses on the career incentives underachieving individuals face in the regular security apparatus. Low-performing officials in hierarchical organizations have little chance of being promoted or filling lucrative positions. To salvage their careers, these officials are willing to undertake burdensome secret police work. Using data on all 4,287 officers who served in autocratic Argentina (1975-83), we study biographic differences between secret police agents and the entire recruitment pool. We find that low-achieving officers were stuck within the regime hierarchy, threatened with discharge, and thus more likely to join the secret police for future benefits. The study demonstrates how state bureaucracies breed mundane career concerns that produce willing enforcers and cement violent regimes. This has implications for the understanding of autocratic consolidation and democratic breakdown.
Perennial reminder of this excellent paper about how secret police forces are swamped with underachievers
“We don’t want clever people. We want mediocrities.”
(Ungated summary here ajps.org/2019/10/08/w...)
Chart showing HS2 costs per km of track vs other rail projects
Great piece exploring how HS2 ended up being the most expensive railway track per kilometre in the world
www.ft.com/content/3f73...
The gold market did not get the memo - gold prices post DoJ, post-Tillis #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
By kow-towing to Trump on trade the EU convinced him, and others no doubt, that it was weak, which just encourages more bullying. If as a result the US takes Greenland by force, the EU will have to do much more forceful things than imposing a 35% tariff or whatever. Weakness makes us all less safe.
HAPPENING NOW: In federal court in MN, DOJ is struggling to articulate why a person following an ICE vehicle — so long as they are obeying traffic laws — can be stopped for "reasonable suspicion" of a crime.
Judge Menendez sharply questioning that contention.
“I characterize science as a bunch of 5-year-olds playing soccer… They all go where the ball is, running around the field in a herd.”
Great quote in this piece (via @histoftech.bsky.social) which is perhaps more about fashions in research funding (see: AI)
www.wired.com/story/scient...
Person on the internets discovers that nuclear is low-carbon.
Every once in a while, someone discovers that nuclear is low-carbon and tries to stick it to renewables as a result.
Yes, the German nuclear phaseout was a mistake. Of course.
Meanwhile, Électricité de France has been fully nationalized to keep its reactors running. A model for the US?
Dug this one up as it seems relevant again
