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Elaine Spiller

@elainespiller

Professor of applied math and statistics.

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05.03.2025
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Latest posts by Elaine Spiller @elainespiller

I get yelled at for saying this but for many hundreds of years people went to university not to get diplomas or be employable but because immersion in the humanities was considered foundational to a good life, and school must return to its original purpose: the joy of learning.

08.03.2026 00:22 ๐Ÿ‘ 12075 ๐Ÿ” 2636 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 227 ๐Ÿ“Œ 185
Statement of Cardinal Blase J. Cupich, archbishop of Chicago, โ€œA Call to Conscienceโ€ - Statements - Archdiocese of Chicago - AoC Portal As more than 1,000 Iranian men, women and children lay dead after days of bombardment from U.S. and Israeli missiles, the official White House X account on Thursday evening posted a video of scenes fr...

Please please read this from the archbishop of Chicago

www.archchicago.org/statement/-/...

08.03.2026 03:46 ๐Ÿ‘ 5692 ๐Ÿ” 2215 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 161 ๐Ÿ“Œ 156
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Couldn't agree more.

07.03.2026 13:00 ๐Ÿ‘ 1322 ๐Ÿ” 319 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 24 ๐Ÿ“Œ 18

"Have I Got News For You" is one of the only things keeping us sane ๐Ÿ™

07.03.2026 04:33 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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"SHIT"
"FUCK"
"NO"
"FUCK"
"SHIT"
"FUCK"

06.03.2026 11:30 ๐Ÿ‘ 5765 ๐Ÿ” 1992 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 58 ๐Ÿ“Œ 99

Yes. And we have to talk about this now, because talking about it is the first step to making it seem like a callous crime rather than a surprising emergency.

07.03.2026 02:43 ๐Ÿ‘ 3755 ๐Ÿ” 1262 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 68 ๐Ÿ“Œ 23
Graph of award probability of R35 and R01 from NIH factbook as a function of review rank percentile. As is apparent, 2025 is a significant departure, with lower award probabilities at all scores <40 and significant departures from norm, where even being in the top 10% is no longer a nearly certain indicator of success.

Data source: https://report.nih.gov/nihdatabook/report/302

Graph of award probability of R35 and R01 from NIH factbook as a function of review rank percentile. As is apparent, 2025 is a significant departure, with lower award probabilities at all scores <40 and significant departures from norm, where even being in the top 10% is no longer a nearly certain indicator of success. Data source: https://report.nih.gov/nihdatabook/report/302

The data is in: the NIH goalposts have shifted.

What were once almost certain fundable scores have become coin flips and what used to be likely grants have become aspirational, leading to fewer awards.

Another manifestation of how HHS policies have led to fewer awards and less science.

07.03.2026 01:59 ๐Ÿ‘ 675 ๐Ÿ” 412 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 19 ๐Ÿ“Œ 61
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MASSIE: โ€œIran is not Venezuela. The Ayatollah was not a president. He was a religious leaderโ€ฆ ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ & ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ turned him into a martyr, expended billions, 6 ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ families must now lay to rest their sons & daughters. And for what? This administration can't even give us a straight answer.โ€

06.03.2026 04:11 ๐Ÿ‘ 19780 ๐Ÿ” 6065 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 558 ๐Ÿ“Œ 236

Itโ€™s tiring that we are increasingly stuck organizing our intellectual lives around arguing for the value of having an intellectual life

05.03.2026 20:23 ๐Ÿ‘ 628 ๐Ÿ” 112 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 2 ๐Ÿ“Œ 4

Him and Steve Miller Band's Steve Miller and Steve's dad, Steve Miller.

05.03.2026 19:05 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Ah, that's gonna make Steve real sad ๐Ÿ˜”

05.03.2026 18:58 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Samsies for Stephen Millers. The good Steve(n) Millers use a v.

05.03.2026 18:51 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

If someone continually says demonstrably racist stuff or engages in obvious antisemitism, the fact that their private lives contradict their public statements is not, in fact, a point in their favor.

05.03.2026 15:19 ๐Ÿ‘ 878 ๐Ÿ” 57 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 21 ๐Ÿ“Œ 1

The woke liberal cucks at Anthropic cut us off from using Claude right before we were going to ask it to generate a reason why we're invading Iran.

by Pete Hegseth

04.03.2026 15:16 ๐Ÿ‘ 728 ๐Ÿ” 117 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 6 ๐Ÿ“Œ 3

It's time to fire Doc. Yesterday they lost by 23 to a now 1-9 in the last 10 Bulls who are actively trying to tank their season.

03.03.2026 02:42 ๐Ÿ‘ 0 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
Dr. Manhattan from Watchmen, sitting alone on the surface of Mars.

Dr. Manhattan from Watchmen, sitting alone on the surface of Mars.

It is 1991. I am 15 years old. The US has gone to war in the Middle East.

It is 2003. I am 27 years old. The US has gone to war in the Middle East.

It is 2026. I'm too old for this shit. The US has gone to war in the Middle East.

28.02.2026 16:16 ๐Ÿ‘ 1273 ๐Ÿ” 380 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 23 ๐Ÿ“Œ 20

Just remember, the bedbugs are Bret Stephens

02.03.2026 13:55 ๐Ÿ‘ 25 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
Today should be your 38th birthday..
When you lose your son you lose more than a child you lose a piece of your heart and your joy. Life is forever altered, and nothing can ever fill that space. Yet in my soul, he remains, my precious boy, forever loved. His laughter, his smile, and his love are woven into who I am. My love for him will never fade. Yor are my pride and my joy - you've made a change that cannot be broken..

Today should be your 38th birthday.. When you lose your son you lose more than a child you lose a piece of your heart and your joy. Life is forever altered, and nothing can ever fill that space. Yet in my soul, he remains, my precious boy, forever loved. His laughter, his smile, and his love are woven into who I am. My love for him will never fade. Yor are my pride and my joy - you've made a change that cannot be broken..

Alex's mom on his 38th birthday.

02.03.2026 00:24 ๐Ÿ‘ 21309 ๐Ÿ” 5342 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 471 ๐Ÿ“Œ 314

Last week in class we talked about the possibility of an imminent war w/Iran. Most of my undergrads barely had it on their radar. I talked abt the GWOT wars & the lessons (not) learned. By the end of the class they were also pretty dismayed and many were filled w/ dread.

02.03.2026 02:10 ๐Ÿ‘ 26 ๐Ÿ” 3 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Oh, I see a lot of Zach Braff.

01.03.2026 03:59 ๐Ÿ‘ 0 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
A shallow bowl of onion and cheese enchiladas in a red chili sauce with sprouts, sour creme, and homemade spanish rice. The bowl is on a gray metal coffee table near a colorful coaster and an open poetry anthology.

A shallow bowl of onion and cheese enchiladas in a red chili sauce with sprouts, sour creme, and homemade spanish rice. The bowl is on a gray metal coffee table near a colorful coaster and an open poetry anthology.

Sometimes my sweetie makes me enchiladas, and that's when I love him the most

01.03.2026 02:45 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Seems weird for February in Chicago, but I love a bonfire.

28.02.2026 05:45 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Like Audre Lorde said in a commencement address, โ€œEvery day of our lives is practice in becoming the person you want to be.โ€

27.02.2026 02:44 ๐Ÿ‘ 185 ๐Ÿ” 55 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Just reupping this image from my newsletter last week, that I hope people will feel free to save and liberally spred around the interwebs. open.substack.com/pub/joycevan...

27.02.2026 00:02 ๐Ÿ‘ 9507 ๐Ÿ” 3719 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 308 ๐Ÿ“Œ 138

Once again, there's a growing supply of excellent journalists who need a new home and a growing demand for a news outlet that won't bend the knee to authoritarians and billionaires, seems like there's a slight opportunity here

27.02.2026 00:08 ๐Ÿ‘ 905 ๐Ÿ” 178 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 25 ๐Ÿ“Œ 10

Well, you know those aren't mutually exclusive, right?

25.02.2026 04:26 ๐Ÿ‘ 3 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

But not compelling. Why can't we get a Dem with an once of charisma?

25.02.2026 04:19 ๐Ÿ‘ 6 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 2 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

tapping the sign

25.02.2026 02:56 ๐Ÿ‘ 477 ๐Ÿ” 132 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 9 ๐Ÿ“Œ 2

Trump again claimed he brought in $18T in foreign investment in the US. No idea where that number comes from -- BEA hasn't released FDI data for 2025 yet -- but it seems pretty implausible. For context that more than half the size of the ENTIRE US economy (~$31T)

25.02.2026 02:32 ๐Ÿ‘ 588 ๐Ÿ” 123 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 23 ๐Ÿ“Œ 3

What are the chances that Trump falls asleep during his own State of the Union? 50/50?

24.02.2026 20:57 ๐Ÿ‘ 319 ๐Ÿ” 15 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 39 ๐Ÿ“Œ 3