Seth Ackerman shows that the graphs depicting the European economy as falling back against the US economy are based on an error.
In fact Europe is doing well and even slightly better than the US. Penn World Table's "rgdpo" does not have this error.
sethackerman.substack.com/p/europes-pr...
A description of 4 "realist" schools of thinking about power competition between countries.
The question though is: how is 'power' quantified? (conceptualised, standardised, measured, tested against real-world results, verified, compared)
Aren't these the clay feet of the giant?
2/2
People in the 'realist' school of understanding international conflict insist that Ukraine cannot win this war, while a lot of indicators tell us otherwise.
The power balance isn't about the size of the army in terms of numbers of soldiers anymore.
What factors are at play?
1/2
This is the most incredible footage of blue whales I’ve ever seen
Conclusion:
1. Putin's expectation to be able to outlast Ukrainian self defence, to outlast any war of attrition, turns out to be wrong.
2. The tables have turned in Ukraine's favour.
7/7
- Russian soldiers are so badly trained, that 'cannon fodder' became the only choice.
- yes: 'infiltration' is an innovative variation on 'cannon fodder', but it is vulnerable to exhaustion of supply of manpower all the same.
Especially with drones.
6/
Unending supply of Russian soldiers?
- This month for the first time, Russia was unable to supply enough soldiers to the front. That was supposed to never happen.
- Already early on, Russia lost a lot of its best troops. They stopped too late sending their best fighters to the front.
5/
Time on Russia's side?
- Ukraine holds out and builds better weapons by the day.
- Russia is weakening by the day.
- Ukraine can hold out while protecting its soldiers better.
4/
- Lack of cash and high interest rates are destroying Russian companies. Meaning: no tax income for the state.
What does 'hollowing out' of the economy do?
Have you seen the result of termites?
One day you touch wood and it falls to dust without a sound.
3/
Unlimited funds?
- The national wellfare fund is empty or near empty and whatever remains is untouchable.
- Proposed solutions focus on theft and plunder. And hollowing out the economy.
- Exports of oil/gas have diminished and so have prices and it's getting worse.
2/
What has happened to Putin's expectations 4 years on?
Putin claimed to be confident of winning a war against Ukraine because of:
1. unlimited funds through exports;
2. time being on his side;
3. An unending supply of soldiers.
Let's look at it one by one.
[..]
1/
⚡️ Trump lifts extra 25% tariff on India after pledge to curb Russian oil imports.
India's Ministry of Commerce has not publicly confirmed the White House's claim that New Delhi agreed to halt imports of Russian oil.
🔥 In the Zaporizhzhia direction, the crews of the Lasar’s Group of the National Guard of Ukraine hunted down the BM-21 “Grad”.
Interesting read:
ERAM / RAACM cruise missile, 400km range, precise, EW resistant, 0.6 Mach, specially developed by the US for Ukraine:
euromaidanpress.com/2026/02/04/u...
By now it has become very clear that Jeffrey Epstein was a broker. A broker of anything that could not easily be obtained otherwise, legally or morally.
Now the big question is: broker of what else?
What else besides children, besides subversion of democracies and murky finance?
Starlink can certainly block geographic areas - they just refuse to point the satellite's antennas there (also the terminal knows its location from GPS)
That kind of blocking would affect AFU as well.
Blocking based on speed, direction of travel and altitude could work tho
Just sent out this free piece. The response to the execution of Alex Pretti reveals how we have gotten into this mess. The anger is not directed at Trump, who caused this whole situation. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
💥 In addition to aircraft, ammunition and fuel depots were also destroyed at airfields in Crimea, - SBU Alpha
Looking at the data Musk could block specific communications like those of the first Ukrainian Sea-Babies, so they can specifically block Russian drones too.
You've found the start of THE daily🧵 for Day 1435
The world refuses to acknowledge the obvious: Russia is not only a rogue, terrorist state which cannot be trusted. It's also one which will do anything, incl genocide until it's stopped
Please support, repost, shout at elected members to stop 🇷🇺 now
Finland
Patria - front fuselage sections for the aircraft.
4/4
Netherlands
GKN Fokker - critical components, including drag parachute systems, electrical wiring, in-flight opening doors.
Norway
Kongsberg Aviation Maintenance Services - air-to-air pylons and vertical leading edges. Air frame and engine maintenance.
And finally:
3/
Key F-35 production and assembly sites in Europe:
Italy
Cameri - Final Assembly and Check-Out and maintenance
Germany
Weeze, Fuselage Production: Rheinmetall
UK
BAE Systems produces the rear fuselage, horizontal and vertical tails, other key components and depots
2/
The F35 was jointly built in Europe.
Radar cross sections:
The F-35 Lightning II = 0.005 m^2
The Su-57 Felon 0.1-0.5 m^2
Rafale = 0.75-2 m^2
That means Dassault (or Europe in general) has still some homework to do.
Here are some production and maintenance sites for the F35:
1/
You seem to assume my position is more to one side than it really is.
We have to see current reality as it is, but that doesn't mean that we don't have to change things.
We have to build a higher level of independence when it comes to weapons and create more choice.
If we wish to fly stealth, what planes will we use? F35s.
If we need logistics, who has the logistics of the size and volume needed? The US.
This is NATO under current circumstances.
We have to acknowledge that before we start building different capabillities of our own.
2/2
Let's look at reality:
If Russia would fire ballistic rockets into NATO territory, how will we answer? With Patriot PAC-3 mainly.
If Russia woul invade, what software will we use to manage our defensive actions? US software.
If Norwegian NASAMS runs out of missiles, where will we get more? US
1/
Indeed.
Rutte speaks in his role of NATO SG. So, he'll always treat is as whole.
Your argument of cost is certainly true.
France returned under Sarkozy.
In part I agree. However, if we want to fly stealth: US planes. If we want the functionality of Patriot+PAC-3: US. If we want integrated software for managing major military events: US.
I think we should develop our own, but in the meanwhile, we haven't yet.
